Morning! 5 with Fitz - 01/13/21

Keith Fitz-Gerald

February 1, 2021

Good morning!

The markets are looking for clarity this morning, but I think that’s going to be hard to come by today.

Some listless back and forth is probably on tap.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – What to look for in Joe Biden’s economic plan

President-elect Joe Biden is going to his release his economic plan on Thursday and all expectations are for a further economic boost later this year. That’s what you really want to concentrate on because it ensures the trifecta we’re following remains: vaccine rollouts, fiscal and monetary stimulus and a resumption of pent-up demand when everybody “stays out” as opposed to merely “gets out” like most people think. Anything less will result in a selloff.

I’m keeping my hedges just a while longer, just in case.

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2 – Interest rates, energy, the dollar, gold, a few choices stocks … even Bitcoin – we hit it all!

My colleagues, Kristina Hooper (Chief Investment Strategist, Invesco), Phil Flynn (Senior Energy Analyst, The PRICE Futures Group), Stephen Moore (Co-founder, Committee to Unleash Prosperity) and I had a wide-ranging discussion yesterday highlighting 2021 and, specifically the opportunities we see ahead. You can watch it again (or for the first time) via the virtual MoneyShow for free – and, I encourage you do so.

Thanks for being there and for the fabulous questions, too!

Watch now (and sign up for today’s technology investing panel if you’d like)

3 – THIS is the most interesting lawsuit in the country

Forget Section 230, antitrust regs and more. The most interesting and potentially impactful lawsuit in the country is Parler’s suit against Amazon. Team Bezos fired back citing unwillingness and inability to remove content that threatens public safety, inciting violence and planning the rape, torture and even assassination of named public officials and private citizens. That’s the real issue and what the courts decide about the removal of content will ultimately shape social media around the world.

I won’t touch social media stocks meanwhile.

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4 – Affirm goes public today

I wrote to the One Bar Ahead™ Family Monday with instructions for Affirm which goes public today – so pay attention if you’re on board. The company, which will trade as AFRM, looks like it will price well above the initial targets. Affirm, in case you’re not familiar with it, is the online pay-in-installments startup and a key part of the so-called “PayPal mafia.”

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5 – Miss this at your own risk

As I have repeatedly noted, Apple demand for the iPhone – and damn near everything else it touches – is well ahead of anticipated figures from “the street.” I think the company will crush every known metric put in front of it. And, that the stock will jump shortly to $150 a share which means we are already 50% of the way to the next double I called for ahead of Apple’s last split.

I am thinking about sharply increasing my position ahead of time using LEAPs.

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Bottom Line

I had a long phone conversation with an investor last night who was worried, like many folks, that the stocks he wants to buy are expensive. It’s a very common concern but one that’s entirely misplaced.

Case in point, Apple hit $499.23 late August ahead of the company’s most recent 4-1 split and shares would have been trading at more than $28,000 each if the company had never split. You could hear the wheels clicking … followed by a deep breath over the receiver.

Missing opportunity is ALWAYS more expensive than trying to avoid risk, especially if you’re investing in a company that’s clearly going to rewrite the future. Like Apple.

Most people don’t think twice about paying a little more to buy an expensive pair of shoes. Why the heck wouldn’t you do the same thing with stocks??!!

Quality matters.

Let’s make it a great day!

Keith 😊

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