Morning! 5 with Fitz -10/16/20

Keith Fitz-Gerald

October 22, 2020

Good morning!

The markets are trying to snap a 3 day downdraft as I type pre-opening and there’s simply not enough information for me to tell if that’s going to stick through today’s session. I’m not particularly concerned either way although, admittedly, it’s no fun to watch core positions run against you are settle into negative territory like several of mine have this week.

Still, chaos always creates opportunity and it's important to keep that in mind.

Speaking of which, here’s what I’m watching this morning:

1 – Pfizer could be ready for an Emergency Use Application late November

The company’s working working with BioNTech on an experimental coronavirus vaccine, as you likely know. I own the former, but not the latter. And am happy to see it tack on nearly 3% ahead of today’s open.

Many people ask why I put my money on Pfizer when there are so many in the coronavirus race and there’s a very simple answer – it’s far more than a one-trick pony. The company offers a terrific yield, has great metrics and – here’s the key – a deep oncology portfolio. In other words, there’s a lot more to Pfizer than just a vaccine despite the fact that’s what has caught many people focus at the moment.

2 – The biggest impact isn’t earnings

The biggest impact is going to be a combination of 1) stimulus, 2) a vaccine and 3) reopening. Earnings have largely been great but what people really want to hope. That, and for Congress to do their damn jobs!

Use the chaos to assemble and clarify your thinking.

My focus is very simple and, as I noted on Making Money with Charles Payne yesterday, centered on optimism. Even if I wind up putting my foot in my mouth, a reference you will totally grasp if you watch my appearance!

3 – Boeing flies again?

EASA’s top dog, Patrick Ky, said he’s satisfied that the 737 is safe enough to return to the reiong’s skies by the end of 2020 according to Bloomberg. What he really said though is that “the level of safety reached is high enough for us.”

I find that curious because there’s apparently a synthetic sensor that’s going to take another 20-24 months to develop and a software solution for the larger Max 10 variant that will debut in 2022 if things go to plan and retrofitted to other MAX versions. Evidently he defines "ready" differently than I would.

It’s the first safety agency endorsement and, while great, not enough for me to buy the stock. You may have a different take but my thinking remains that the virus has changed travel forever. I do not see travel and aircraft demand returning to 2019 levels until 2025, barring a vaccine that accelerates the process.

4 – My curiosity got the better of me yesterday, or at least Twitter thought it did

I must have hit the big leagues yesterday. I clicked on a news item in Twitter regarding the latest Benghazi and Biden conspiracies because I wanted to learn about the hub-bub for the simple reasons that there are very real investment implications to both. Less than 20 seconds later, my notifications disappeared on every platform I own – my phone, my desktop, my tablet. My Tweets also stopped going out.

There’s a massive investment opportunity here; I’m just not sure if it’s the short or long side yet when it comes to Twitter (and, on a related note, Facebook).

What’s your take?

5 – I didn’t know I needed this but what marketing genius!

Hormel has created a bacon-scented coronavirus mask and you enter for a chance to win one on


The Bottom Line

Many people wake up in the morning dreading the day because they don’t own it. Have a nice day they say and, hopefully, they will.

I’d rather MAKE it a great day!

Take a moment and watch Admiral William McRaven’s commencement speech and let what he says sink in. Then, make your bed (if you haven't already).

Little things matter, in life and in pursuit of profits!

Thanks for reading!

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