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Morning! 5 with Fitz - 10/19/20

Keith Fitz-Gerald

October 22, 2020

Good morning!

I am delighted to see futures up this morning. Not sure they’ll stick, but delighted nonetheless because it's a big earnings week. The average "beat" right now looks north of 25% ... !! Let's see how guidance shakes out.

Here’s what has my attention this week:

1 – China matters to your money, even if you don’t think it does

Futures up on stimulus and China where consumer spending and industrial production have now returned to pre-pandemic levels. No doubt they’re suspect … the numbers that is. Do NOT make the mistake of writing them off “because it’s China” or China’s numbers aren’t what everybody thinks.

China is still very much a global driver and what happens there has a direct impact on what happens here.

2 – Money doesn’t do politics but politics does money

Pelosi’s 48 hour deadline is a farce; the best companies do NOT need stimulus nor a cure. It’ll make ‘em better but the key here is people better one way or the other. What you want to do is “bet” in spite of, if that makes sense.

$AAPL, $MSFT, $PFE, $JPM $V – all companies we’ve talked about at great length and all names I own personally or am trading around.

3 – Why I’m buying Alibaba over Walmart

Pure and simple, it’s a numbers game. Alibaba has a far larger addressable market and, love it or hate it, that’s an important concept when it comes to your money. Not for nothing, China’s online market is 855 million people … already … and the world’s largest. And, it just made a very savvy move.

4 – Leery about a 2nd wave and financial markets

The 7 day average case count has now passed the United States with new daily European cases exceeding those here. This is going to make a lot of people rethink things.

Mind your trailing stops and hedging. I am leery that the financial markets will be able to maintain their upside if the 2nd wave takes hold (and it will here in the US a few weeks from now).

5 – What I am going on about … Tesla

Tesla has never been about the cars but about the chargers and the grid. The fact that utilities are whining about not have a part of the charging network tells me that I’m on to something. Moreover, Tesla is now a licensed electricity trader in Europe ... something that's not being widely discussed here.

The Bottom Line

Many investors get so wrapped up in analysis that they forget to be observant. Take a moment and look at the world around us … do you see lots of Tesla trucks (I do) … Apple phones (I do) … Amazon boxes (I do).

Start “seeing” … it can be very profitable!

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