Investing may be frustrating right now, but it’s not rocket science
Good morning! 👋
The Dow and S&P 500 have both slipped because... you guessed it... the Fed has stepped in it again and, in doing so, overwhelmed the otherwise very positive news from Walmart.
We’re gonna talk about both.
Here’s my playbook.
The Fed steps in it (again)
This time around, it’s Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan who’s said that “current data” doesn’t justify pausing rate hikes yet.
I wish they’d take the mic away from everybody but Chairman Powell.
The markets do NOT like uncertainty, and this kind of commentary clearly injects that.
...has destroyed $70–$100 TRILLION worth of capitalization
...failed to remove “emergency standing” by staying at zero too long—an error also made after 9/11 by then-Fed poohbah Alan Greenspan, which means they failed to learn from their own history
...was too late to recognize inflation and waited too long to respond
...ignored reckless bank behavior
...aided and abetted extremely leveraged asset managers, some of which have blown up spectacularly while others continue to ply their trade at the expense of individual investors
…is as wrong about rates and jobs now as it was about “transitory”
Investing under the circumstances is frustrating, but it’s not rocket science.
Prepare LowBall Orders in case we get a shot at some amazing discounts.
Reinvest every dollar in divvies.
Maintain hedges and use putskies if ya wanna punt.
If you have this covered, excellent! Most investors and traders do not. Meanwhile, I’m here if you’d like some help. Upgrade to Paid
Looking beyond the headlines: JPM v. PACW
UBS recorded $34.8 billion in negative goodwill from the purchase of Credit Suisse. At the same time, Jamie Dimon said it’s “unlikely” that JPMorgan will acquire another struggling lender. (Read) (Read)
He and I agree... buy the best and ignore the rest.
Especially when it comes to regional banks.
Pay very careful attention to the spin Wall Street is putting on this story.
For example... Reuters is reporting that “PacWest, Western Alliance Lead Rebound in US Regional Lenders.”
That doesn’t check out.
Since March 8, shares of JPMorgan (JPM) have returned 1.28% while shares of PacWest (PACW) have returned -79.17%, according to Eikon. And no, that’s not a typo.
Always do what Wall Street does, not what it says.
I know which one I want to own (and do).
Walmart: Buy, sell, or hold?
We talk about the importance of buying great companies... a lot.
To a point I make frequently and as forcefully as I can, the world’s best companies WILL continue to put up numbers, WILL continue to grow, and WILL be great investments—recession or not!
Walmart just raised full-year guidance as groceries and its online business accelerate.
“Must haves” beat “nice to haves” any day of the week.
You know what to do... ‘cause I told you all about it this past Monday during an appearance on Varney & Co ahead of the opening bell. If you missed that or want to watch my take again, here ya’ go! 😊 (Watch)
How to protect your email (from deletion)
Google plans to delete thousands of email accounts as a security precaution.
Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Here’s how to protect yours and ensure that your information doesn’t get wiped out when you least expect it. (Read)
Sign of the times?
One of the biggest challenges I have as an investment strategist is the need to think about the unthinkable.
Like nuclear conflict.
I don’t have the luxury of ignoring what’s happening because I wouldn’t be doing my job if I did. More importantly, it’d be a complete violation of the trust you place in me to help you navigate today’s complicated financial markets.
China, Russia, and North Korea are just the frontrunners. There are scores of bad actors who would push a button, end our way of life, then consider it time well spent for having done so.
The risks are one opportunity.
The need to protect against this another.
What happens afterwards, still a third.
That’s why this caught my attention late last night.
Human trials are underway to determine the effectiveness of the first pill designed to reverse the effects of nuclear radiation poisoning.
42 participants will apparently receive HOPO 14-1 orally at a facility in Michigan, then will be monitored to see how well radiation is absorbed and removed from the body. (Read)
The other thing that comes to mind—and it could be just as big a positive development—is how the tests themselves will be conducted. I’m wondering if there could be an offshoot treatment used to help those undergoing chemo recovery; that could go a long way in the fight against cancer.
Meanwhile... the team and I are doing the final due diligence on a related investment opportunity that could make a nice complement. We’re on the brink of customizable medicine, and the companies driving progress will undoubtedly create a new generation of millionaires.
Plan on learning all about it in the June OBA issue if everything checks out! Upgrade to Paid
Money is like water.
It will always flow to where it’s treated best.
Now and as always, MAKE it a great day!
You got this.