Is Musk’s next move a META killer?
Good morning! đ
The S&P 500 tacked on a fourth day of gains, ending 0.4% higher yesterday. And, so far at least, the major indices are all in the greenâwhich, if it holds, could extend the streak to a fifth day.
Iâll take it.
If for no other reason than that August was looking to be even more abysmal than usual summer trading (which is typically scattered, loose, and often directionless).
Fall is typically a time to power up:
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Retail investors re-engage after the summer holiday, which can bring a lot of money running into markets.
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Institutional investors have big bonuses on the line, so they often make strategic decisions to improve their performance into the tail-end of the year, a practice known as âwindow dressing.â
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Traders pick up on the added activity because volatility can be a huge source of opportunity as liquidity improves and spreads (the difference between bid and ask) tighten.
Hereâs my playbook.
Apple testing 3D printing at scale & itâs a game-changer
Weâve been tracking 3D printing for some time now in One Bar AheadÂŽ because itâs gonna change the world in ways that most people havenât yet thought about.
This is a big step forward.
Apple is reportedly testing 3D printing to produce the new Series 9 Apple Watch chassis. (Read)
From there, itâs only a short jump to aluminum enclosures used in both Macs and iPads. Titanium, too. Profit margins could jump significantly (which is undoubtedly why Apple is doing this in the first place).
My guess is that other companies will be watching VERY closely⌠airlines and other high-tech producers in particular. Imagine how thisâll change the concept of inventory management, purchasing, and more.
I hope I own enough Apple and a few of the other makers Iâve got my eye on.
Chinese consumer demand bouncing back
Chinaâs Beige Book shows consumer spending bouncing back in August after a less-than-impressive July, according to a new report. (Read)
Data show that all five categoriesâauto, apparel, furniture, appliances, and luxury goodsâ jumped demonstrably in what is euphemistically called ârevenge spendingâ in Asia.
If youâre not familiar with the term, ârevenge spendingâ is when consumers rush to do something or, in this case, spend more money than they normally would in response to an event like the pandemic or other economic calamity that has held âem back.
Thatâs good for global demand, for two reasons: a) it drives higher global trade volumes, which, in turn, b) stimulates innovation and consumption.
Even so, Iâd rather invest because of China than in China any day of the weekâwith only two very specific, Vegas-style exceptions. Upgrade to Paid
Is Morgan Stanleyâs downgrade a sign PLTR is poised for a big move?
Morgan Stanley downgraded Palantir this morning from equal weight to underweight, saying the stock could fall 40%. (Read)
Could it be that the firmâs clients missed the 154% run up this year, and now they want in?
Itâs an open secret, albeit a very nasty one, on Wall Street.
Issue a âresearchâ report that contradicts price action and public opinion to drive prices in a favourable direction. In some cases, thatâs lower so a firmâs best clients can get on board at lower prices. In others, itâs to take prices higher so they can sell into strength.
Iâm not saying thatâs happening here, but I do find the timing very suspicious, given Wall Streetâs dubious track record of similar shenanigans.
The situation reminds me very much of NVDA when Morgan Stanley, Wedbush, and Baird all downgraded NVDA before its last big move.
Salesforce shares pop on earnings and stronger guidance
What to do now?
I was not enthusiastic when the companyâs finance chief Amy Weaver said, âWe are still seeing elongated sales cycles, additional deal approval layers, and deal compression in our subscription and support and professional-services businesses.â
Why?
Her remarks strike me as buzzword bingo or word salad and tell me that the upside might be limited.
CEO Marc Benioff seems to think that AI will help lead the charge into new territory, but Iâm not sure how that translates into earnings potential absent specifics.
âHold, but tighten stops considerablyâ would be my verdict.
That said, I donât own it (and wonât) because I think there are better opportunities out there for my money.
The stock is trading at $226.55, and the 52-week high is $238.22 at a time when the average price target is $243.53.
Muskâs latest move is a META killer
Maybe itâs just me, but the word âXâ in the same sentence as âaudio and videoâ brings to mind less-than-savory images on par with, shall we say, very specifically focused alternatives.
Still, this is significant.
Unka Elon has announced that X users will be able to make audio and video calls through the app without having to reveal their phone number. (Read)
Most Westerners still do not understand the concept of a Super-App, so the moves heâs making donât register as an investment opportunity.
They shouldâand a monster one at that!
The closest thing on the planet is WeChat, which is so indispensable and so deeply ingrained in Chinese society that itâs almost impossible to get by without it.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, what I would give to be able to buy X shares right now. And while Iâm at it, I canât help but wonder if META is DOA when Musk makes this happen.
Putskies?
Bottom Line
The worst possible thing an investor or trader can experience is early success.
Itâs better to get the pain that comes with the journey out of the way early on.
And learn from the experience.
You got thisâI promise.
As always, MAKE it a great day!
Keith đ