The defense department’s NEXT gold rush

Good morning! 👋

Regional banks are on the rebound, and the CPI came in at “just” +6% from a year ago.

Will it slow down?

Not for a New York minute.

The supply chain is still a slow-motion train wreck, there are still trillions of dollars in stimulus sloshing around in the system, and the government wants to spend more money still! 🤦‍♂️

Scary stuff, but as always, that’s an opportunity!

Here’s my playbook.

There’s only one bank I wanna own (and do)

Credit Suisse has announced a “material weakness” after reporting an $8B loss. (Read)

Material?

You know the SHTF when they have to use euphemisms to sugarcoat the truth.

There’s only one bank I wanna own and do. (Watch)

Ukraine to Russia: JDAM this!

Gravity bombs are just what the name implies... you drop ‘em, they fall and explode on target.

JDAM-ERs are different.

The dang things can fly 45 miles after being released to strike targets; and, Ukraine just got a slew of ‘em. Russia may have to rethink its battlefield tactics because this potentially brings new targets within range. (Read)

If you’re not investing in defense, you might want to rethink that proposition.

Hollywood couldn’t have made this up

The SVB situation would be a comedy of errors if it weren’t so sad.

  • SVB execs apparently sold blocks of shares before everything came unglued.

  • SVB employees received bonuses hours before regulators shuttered everything.

  • SVB’s Chief Administrative Officer Joseph Gentile was former CFO at Lehman Brothers.

Now we’re learning that Kim Olson, SVB’s recently appointed chief risk officer, worked at Deutsche Bank from 2007… and here’s the clincher… at the time when it lied to investors about its mortgage-backed securities (the collapse of which led to the housing crisis). (Read)

What’s next?

Ties between SVB and SBF?

There are already reports circulating that Silvergate—the “other” failed bank—had ties to FTX, so this isn’t as outlandish a stretch as one might think.

Oy vey!!

The next defense contract gold rush

It’s all on the Army’s shopping list… zero trust, cloud transition, BYOD, and other digital transformation schtuff. (Read)

Now if only there were a company capable of providing all that!

Oh wait…

There are two in the One Bar Ahead Model Portfolio right now. One’s posted a total return of 48.33% while the other’s returned 32.51% over the past 2 years, according to Eikon. The S&P 500, by comparison, has shed -2.12% over the same time frame. Upgrade to Paid

Buy, sell, or hold: UBER, LYFT

Shares of UBER and LYFT shot higher in the pre-market after a California court ruled that drivers should be treated as independent contractors instead of employees. (Read)

Should you take a ride?

It’s one thing if you’re a trader and nimble enough to navigate the nonsense—but as an investor, no way. Any 12-year-old with a bike basket is a competitor for food delivery services, and self-driving cars will torpedo the current business model.

Both companies are “n+1” to borrow a term from Peter Thiel... meaning they’re just incremental upgrades in the grand scheme of things. Not breakthrough “Zero to 1” tech like everybody thinks.

Ordinarily, I’d be thinking putskies, but Wall Street seems to want to defend the stock, so that’s too dicey a proposition for my taste.

Bottom Line

There are lots of types of investments.

Some will do you more harm than good.

Find the ones that work for YOU and move you toward YOUR goals!

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day!

Keith 😊