The mother of all contrarian signals is in play again
Good morning! đ
The markets are up in early going as hope rises that the latest jobs report will tame the Fedâs rate hike follies.
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I wouldnât bet on it; and,
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The real reason traders are on the gas in early going is that the US-10YR yield has dropped slightly to 4.079% as I type, which means that the cost of leverage just went down for the big traders who depend on it (so they can afford to âlever upâ and buy).
Hereâs my playbook.
2 battery stocks to think about if you donât like Tesla
Hyundai and LG are going to invest an additional $2 billion in their joint-venture Georgia battery plant. The $2B investment brings the total planned expenditure to nearly $8B and is anticipated to create 8,500 new jobs over 8 years. (Read)
People naturally think this is all about EVs, but as usual, another story emerges when you follow the money... or, in this case, the tax credits and the UD Inflation Reduction Act, which passed in 2022. It specified new sourcing for critical battery components and minerals.
My guess is this development will be good for Albemarle Corp (ALB) and Panasonic Holdings Corp (PCRFY), but Iâll stick with Unka Elon.
Meanwhile, I hope Iâm smart enough to buy more dino juice, because those plantsâand plenty of others like them around the worldâare going to be built by old-fashioned, piston-clanking machinery.
The best contrarian indicator on the planet is in play (again)
Anybody who doesnât understand investing psychology is at a tremendous disadvantage in todayâs financial markets.
Let me explain.
Research from Barronâs, DALBAR, and others shows that 80% or more of all buy/sell decisions are wrong, meaning that investors sell when they should be buying and buy when they should be selling.
Why?
Thereâs actually a simple explanation.
Herding, for lack of a better term, is very real. And itâs getting worse because the internet has created a tremendous need for social validation.
At the same time, individual investors are reluctant to realize losses even when they should. Professionals donât have that problem, which is why this is such a great juxtaposition.
And finally, many individual investors are overconfident in their ability to predict the future, yet at the same time fearful that âeverybody elseâ knows something they donât. Which is why many armchair experts have consistently predicted 10 of the last 2 recessions. [doh!]
Well, guess whatâs happening?
US equity funds have seen a fifth successive week of outflows. According to Refinitiv Lipper, investors pulled $4.54B from US equity funds, which was driven by ârisk aversion.â (Read)
Talk about a great contrarian signal!!!
AWS releases AI for small businesses
I told you about this a few weeks back when I noted that AWSâs next play would be ânew business,â and now Amazonâs confirmed that with new offerings aimed squarely at small and medium-sized businesses. (Read)
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, AI is not just about AI, and it sure as heck isnât about Big Tech exclusively. Every business on the planet will use it one way or the other within the next few years, even tangentially. Those that donât or refuse to will die.
Small businesses are 70% of our economy or moreâŚ
Anecdotally, my companyâs already on boardâand has been for yearsâwith AWS, so I am personally super excited to see this happening.
Muskâs X to collect biometric information and employment data
Biometric data is the future; the only question is how we use it and who has it.
People are griping about privacy fears, but I can almost guarantee you that Musk is 5 moves ahead. (Read)
My guess is that heâs thinking about all the information heâll need to guarantee global payments, billing, and medical security when it comes to the Super App heâs got planned.
Not to be callous, but if youâre worried about privacy⌠give it up.
That ship sailed years ago when credit card companies, insurance companies, and social media teamed up to buy and sell your data without your permission.
OBAers: The September issue drops today
Keep an eye on your email later this morning.
Iâm super excited to be sharing this monthâs research... including a top-tier defense stock with great growth and income potential. Unbelievably, itâs trading at a discount right now. Thereâs also a super-innovative income strategy thatâs straight out of what I am calling the billionaireâs playbook. You wonât believe the yield!
If youâve got this covered and youâre already in to win, thatâs excellentâwell done! But if youâd like some help and confidence that youâre on the right path to profits, Iâm here. Upgrade to Paid
Speaking of whichâŚ
Bottom Line
Iâve always believed that anybody can be wildly successful in the stock market with the right information, education, and tactics.
Learn!
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Every day is a new opportunity.
Letâs finish the week strongâyou got this!
Keith đ