UK bookies bet a head of lettuce lasts longer than PM Truss

Good morning!

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Now, on with the show!


The Dow is up 600 points as earnings kick into high gear. Makes a lot of sense for reasons I laid out last Friday with the fantastic Liz Claman. (Watch)


Here’s my playbook.

“Should I be buying right now?”

I get this question frequently.


Here’s one way to think about it: People are wasting a lot of time and mental energy trying to pick “the bottom” when history shows that all you have to do is be “close enough.”


How?


That’s actually the easy part.


Concentrate on the world’s best companies because history also shows that you’ll be right most of the time over time. Especially if you DCA, VCA or accumulate shares during down markets like the present.


The big money is made during bear markets. It just feels like hell when you’re in the middle of ‘em.

TSLA $300 Q1 ‘23

Tesla is down 40% YTD roughly in line with the broader markets. Elon Musk may be a lot of things but stupid isn’t one of ‘em.  


I hope I’m smart enough to buy more when they report this week! (Watch)

Mastercard partners with Paxos

Mastercard is partnering with Paxos to help TradeFi institutions offer crypto trading. The real key here is that it’ll help banks with compliance, transaction verification, identify monitoring and anti-money laundering. (Read)


Makes me wonder who said what behind the scenes. The US government is increasingly desperate to regulate cryptocurrencies which is why I don’t think it’s a stretch that somebody inside the Beltway encouraged ‘em to get involved. Compliance and security are key.


I’d rather own another stock for reasons I’ll share in this morning’s One Bar Ahead® update. Upgrade to Paid


Bitcoin is still in a sideways holding pattern, meanwhile. (Read)

Nikola’s founder convicted of fraud

A jury found Trevor Milton guilty of defrauding investors after deliberating for 5 hours in a Manhattan federal court. His lawyer says there will be an appeal because his client – Milton – is being railroaded by overzealous prosecutors. (Read)


Bigger implications: I must imagine that there are any number of SPAC execs who have their lawyers on speed dial as a result of the verdict. A number of high-profile banks including Citigroup, Goldman and others backed away from SPAC underwriting earlier this year when the SEC proposed Rule 140a. (Read)

UK bookies betting a head of lettuce lasts longer the Premier Truss

Oh my. A £9 ($10) bet on Truss walking the plank before the year is out would only yield an extra £4 payout, implying the probability she will not survive 2022 stands at nearly 70% reports Fortune, citing UK betting firm Ladbrokes.  


If that happens, Truss will be the shortest-serving UK PM in history, beating a record of just 4 months set by George Canning in 1827. He died just after 4 months in office. (Read)  


Investing implication: Europe cannot afford to hike rates any more than Britain can. I still believe the Sterling achieves parity with the US dollar. One way to trade that if you’re keen to is to short GBP while being long the USD. Or consider buying an ETF like SGBP.

Bottom Line

If you're worried about the economy and I get that you might be, think about this.  


Growth may slow, but it has never ever stopped.  


Invest accordingly!


Let’s make it a fabulous week!


Keith