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I hope you’re “in to win” ‘cause it’ll hurt if you’re not

Mar 09, 2022

Good morning!

The markets are up in the early going as commodity prices relax and war in Ukraine rages on. The 10-year Treasury rebounds to 1.9% and Goldman Sachs – remember them??!! – says buy “these stocks” to beat global volatility.

Sound familiar?

It should.

Just yesterday, in fact, I wrote …

Monday, I mentioned three big names perfect for investors … (Watch)

Last week, I spelled out the specific buying points for 8 world-class stocks in One Bar Ahead™, my monthly digital investing journal. Three of the eight are already off to the races.

(Subscribers, check page 19 for the full table – you know what to do! If you’re not a subscriber and would like to join a worldwide family of super-savvy investors, click here to learn more.)

To be absolutely clear, I am not telling you this to brag.

I am not smarter than everybody else and never will be. I make plenty of mistakes.

What I want you to understand is that today’s move highlights the importance of playing forward to win rather than playing not to lose.

Will the rally continue?

Short-term, that depends almost entirely on Mr. Putin. I’m not lifting my hedges just yet, for example.

Longer-term, I’d plan on it.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – No more big macs for you, Komrade

Big American companies like McDonald's, Coca-Cola, and Pepsi are temporarily suspending Russian operations.

Russians craving junk food and shareholders probably won’t like that much. McDonald’s, for example, generates about 9% of its annual revenue from the Russia/Ukraine region, Pepsi about 4% and Coke about 1-2%.

Workers, however, will because all three companies are reportedly going to continue to pay salaries which will provide valuable financial support to citizens that are caught up in the current ugliness. (Read)

2 – New chips, crazy speed

Apple’s big event was a big deal as I thought might be the case.

Team Cupertino unveiled a slew of new products including an updated budget iPhone, iPad Air, and iOS firmware updates.

The big news for me, however, was the new M1 ultra chip, which, if it works as advertised, is going to blow competitors out of the water on both the CPU and GPU front.

Without getting into the nitty gritty, Apple says it’s 90% faster than Intel’s flagship 16-core i9 while consuming only 1/3rd power. What’s more, it has graphic capabilities on par with Nvidia’s category-leading GeForce RTX 3090. (Read)

Seems to me to be a perfect pairs trade if you’ve got the chops … long Apple, short Intel because I still think it’s dead money.

3 – EV maker suspends production

Porsche has suspended EV production because a key wiring harness is made in Ukraine. Fox reports that additional product lines will be impacted in March, but Porsche has not confirmed that. (Read)

The Porsche Taycan is at stake and that’s a problem because it is outselling Tesla S & X Models apparently.

4 – Analysts strike again.

Barclays boosts Chevron's target from $148 to $183 … after the stock traded at $170.53 yesterday. I get it but jeez, Louis! (Read)

5 – Yellen leaks, crypto peaks

Remarks from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen highlighting the need for “responsible innovation” were apparently published inadvertently – and since deleted to be formally republished today. Nimble traders have already made a quick buck, though. (Read)

I’d be setting up short for the next few hours but longer term still net higher IMHO.