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The biggest mistake you could make today is underestimating Apple

Jul 12, 2023

Good morning! 👋

And voila... inflation’s in at just 0.2%.

The numbers are more cooked than a Christmas goose, but that’s another story for another time.

I’ll take ‘em.

Here’s my playbook.

Being profitable beats being “right” every time

The latest inflation reading came in at just 0.2%, “lighter” than expected. That’s still a 3% YoY increase, but what’s a few trillion between friends??!!! It’s a lot lower than what we’ve been dealing with for the past few years. 🤦‍♂️

Traders, of course, have wasted no time getting busy.

All three major indices have ripped higher in the pre-market. Big tech, of course, leads the way.

I hope to heck you’re on board!

Remember: The market doesn’t care whether or not you’re “right” about inflation, but savvy long-term investors—like us—definitely do care about being profitable!

Data like this reinforces the idea that the Fed is closer to the end of this mess than the dawning of another crisis, a narrative we’ve been talking about since last October when I said people would be wise to lean in.

The biggest mistake you could make today is underestimating Apple

People worry constantly about China coming “here,” but they forget that it works both ways.

Apple just opened a store on Tencent’s WeChat. (Read)

Chinese competitors know that another dragon’s just arrived at a party they thought they had all to themselves.

Apple had a 19.9% share of China’s smartphone market in Q1 23... the highest since 2014. That’s a 6% growth YoY in a market that otherwise saw declines. I think that will double in a few years.

The biggest mistake you could make as an investor is to underestimate Apple’s potential to get bigger and even more valuable!

I can’t wait for Team Cook’s earnings call on August 3!

Starter homes “are a thing of the past”

With housing prices and interest rates through the roof, the idea of buying a smallish entry-level home and upgrading in 5 years or so is done with. Millennials and Zoomers are planning to stay put for “nearly two decades.” (Read)

With rates still going up, that’s narrowing down the inventory of affordable homes, according to US Census data. Only about 11% of homes sold in Q1 2023 were priced below $300,000, and the median new home price in April was $420,800.

This is a lot like stock buybacks... smaller supply = higher prices.

Pssst... just don’t tell everyone who thinks prices will decrease when that happens. They evidently slept through Econ 101.

Home Depot and Lowe’s just may be “comeback” stocks under the circumstances.

MSFT 1, Gov 0

Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley found that the FTC has not shown that the proposed Microsoft/Activision tie-up would substantially lessen competition. (Read)

In fact, she wrote that the “evidence points to more consumer access to Call of Duty and other Activision content.”

Yep.

Do you own enough shares?

Key Takeaway: Many people collect stocks instead of thinking about what they’re really doing when they invest.

And that is?

Building real, sustainable financial freedom.

I’d love to toss my hat in the ring if you’re interested. Wall Street has let a lot of people down, and I’m on a mission to help individual investors build that freedom they want. Upgrade to Paid

Greedy tech Toast could be toast

According to various reports, “Toast Inc., a powerful cloud-based third-party point-of-sale vendor used by more than 85,000 restaurants, is unilaterally adding a 99-cent ‘processing fee’ to online orders of $10 or more.” (Read)

So?

The fee is being charged to consumers—not to the restaurants that pay Toast for its processing services.

This is like a bartender skimming a buck for every drink poured.

TOST Putskies could be a tasty speculative dish if the backlash accelerates like I think it might.