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☕ Understand ranching, you’ll understand Apple v. Samsung

Apr 15, 2024

Good morning! 👋

Like millions of people around the world, I’m glad we’re still here.

Let’s make the most of it shall we!

The markets were in rally mode when I joined the super-savvy Stuart Varney ahead of today’s opening bell, but I expect that to fade a bit by the time you read this. The move is being driven largely by computers which manage more money than humans.

Don’t let that dissuade you:

If you’re a trader, volatility is fuel.
If you’re an investor, it’s an opportunity.

Either way, get after it!

Here’s my plan.

1 – Palantir for the win

Stuart asked me straight away why Palantir and why now.

My take is that the company couldn’t be more critical to national defense. (Watch)

See if you don’t agree with me after watching this. (Watch)

2 – Apple v Samsung: take a lesson from ranchers

There’s a big stink being made this morning about the fact that Samsung has overtaken Apple. (Read)

I wouldn’t read too much into it.

Here’s why.

Apple owns its own ecosystem, but Samsung depends almost entirely on Google.

It’s the difference between running a herd on your own land (which is what Apple does) and leasing acreage from somebody else (which is what Samsung does).

Buying now ahead of the upcoming June developers conference could be a super smart move.

I remain convinced that Apple is much farther along on AI than the world knows and that the possibility of another iPhone moment which completely redefines the landscape could be at hand.

Interestingly, I was a lone wolf for a long time, but this narrative is starting to make its way to the front now from the likes of Morgan Stanley and others so we’re in good company.

I’m also seeing reports suggesting that Apple’s new AI may be native to your phones which would be a gamechanger of epic proportions because it means that some form of generative AI is going to be deeply embedded into the next generation of software AND hardware. (Read)

Then there’s the long rumoured Apple chatbot which isn’t expected to make a launch this time but which seems to be in the wings by Christmas, particularly if the native, on-board phone scenario I've outlined several times comes to pass.

Trade Idea: Buying shares as an investor is a foregone conclusion but Apple’s prices are now getting attractive enough that LEAPs could be a great alternative. Traders may find near dated ATM covered calls appealing, too.

Note: If you don’t know what these trades are, a) don’t try ‘em and b) stay tuned. I’m going to finally be moving forward with the educational schtuff needed to get you up to speed. 😊

3 – Tesla ties up with Tata

The news this morning is all about Tesla’s reported layoffs (Read) but the real news in my mind is Tesla has signed a global deal with Tata Electronics. (Read)

MyPOV: Tesla is thinking globally while other automakers aren’t even on the field yet. The Chinese are coming so Unka Elon’s got his mind around the moves needed to survive that challenge at a time when most industry players – let alone Wall Street – don’t yet seriously recognize the threat.

Buying more shares won’t be for the faint of heart but could be a super smart move. I still see shares 3X in the next 5 years.

4 – Exit UVXY

Last Friday I suggested a rare speculative SHTF trade over the weekend in case things accelerated in the Middle East. That came to pass but, thankfully, cooler heads have prevailed so far.

UVXY is a leveraged fund which means that it’s designed for short-term holds ONLY.

I told you to plan on being out come Monday, “win, lose or draw.”

It's Monday.

Exit.

If you are interested in hedging or learning how to protect your investments against shenanigans like what’s happening now, you may find my 5 Minute Guide to Hedging helpful. Every OBAer gets it for free as part of the membership, but you can purchase it separately if you’re interested. (Learn more)

5 – Iran’s end game

Many are wondering what’s next.

Psychology is key.

MyPOV: Israel will retaliate in measured form, likely within the week and probably covertly. However, I think that a massive, extreme strike will follow within 12-18 months if Israel’s past actions are any indication. Whatever happens will be surgical, total, and very likely focused on Iran’s nuclear capacity.

Iran knows that it will likely get the short end of the stick in such a scenario. That’s why it will continue to take actions that escalate the situation just enough that the global community begins to pressure Israel to back down rather than looking to Iran to tone it down.

Not quite bait and switch, but close.

Meanwhile and to that end, Iran is already trying to stage manage its drone attack noting in a tweet over the weekend from the country’s UN Mission, NY that “the matter can deemed concluded.” (Read)

I wouldn’t bet on it.

Volatility will be our constant travelling companion as investors for the foreseeable future.