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☕ Being in to win has never looked better

Feb 09, 2024

Good morning! 👋

Apparently, they’re playing football this weekend.

Silly me.

I thought entertainment goddess Taylor Swift was holding a party for a few hundred thousand of her closest friends in Las Vegas. 🤦‍♂️

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 touched 5,000 as I expected it would.

Hooyah!

I do feel sorry for the permabears, though; it must be tough to be so consistently wrong for so long.

Think about what they’ve missed.

Palantir has tacked on 198.18% over the past year
Nvidia has returned 213.78% over the same time frame
Heck, even the SPY has put on 23.19%... the SPY!!!!

Being “in to win” has never looked better.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Pepsi pops, revenue drops

It's a far more common tale than you would think, especially this earnings season.

PepsiCo reported quarterly earnings that topped Wall Street expectations, but revenue missed estimates. Pepsi executives said high borrowing costs and lower personal savings have squeezed customers' budgets. (Read)

That may be.

Even so, Pepsi's organic revenue rose 4.5% during the quarter.

Hmmm.

Seems to me there’s an opportunity here, albeit one few will see coming.

Time to make a change.

OBAers: Please keep an eye on your email for specifics in today’s AMAs. Upgrade to Paid

2 – Nvidia’s next big move

To hear Wall Street tell it, the game is over.

China makes up 20% of data center sales, AMD’s mounting a charge, and the stock is too “expensive” whatever that means.

Right.

That’s what they’ve been saying since October 2022 when the company dropped all the way under $110 a share and many were ready to bin it.

I told you NVDA was a buy.

The stock has returned 462.41% since and is now trading at $707.29 as I type.

I continue to think NVDA splits, perhaps this year.

Repeat after me.... AI is the single largest investing theme in recorded human history.

MyPOV: Many investors are making a critical mistake right now by thinking about AI as “just” another technology. AI will change the course of our world for generations. Big tech stocks, including many names we talk about frequently, will lead the way for decades. (Watch)

3 – Temu’s Super Bowl advert should be a reality check

Chinese e-commerce player Temu is going to be running its 2nd Super Bowl advertisement this weekend, along with $10 million in giveaways. (Read)

Here’s why you should pay attention.

China will not evolve into the liberal, democratic society and free market economy with unlimited opportunity for Western companies that naive politicians and pundits fancy.

China’s goal is world domination, not coexistence.

Investors need to plan accordingly.

Legendary Chinese general Sun Tzu’s words ring truer than ever despite the fact that they were penned nearly 2,500 years ago... “Display profits to entice them ... be deferential to foster their arrogance ... go forth where they do not expect it.”

By – oh, I dunno – showing adverts during the SuperBowl.

I put it this way.

The dragon is coming to dinner on Tuesday. The only decision you must make as an investor is whether you want to be at the table or on the menu.

MyPOV: It is better to invest because of China than in China which is why I will place my bets with companies and CEOs who have a handle on what it really means to do business with the Chinese. Not politicians who would rather steal your lollipop to get re-elected.

4 – EVs are killing Ford

There's no question in my mind that the world is going to go to alternative energy.

The problem – and the opportunity - is that people are thinking about what’s happening like it’s an on/off switch.

Energy is a continuum which means that the path to profits is really about how we get from “here” to “there.”

Take Ford, for example.

The company’s EV push may cost ‘em $5B this year alone. And mind you, that’s on top of the $12B management effectively already walked away from. (Read)

Contrast that with big energy companies reporting record profits even though oil prices have dropped.

Long your favourite big energy choice, short or avoid Ford.

And you’d like some help sorting out what’s what, you know where to find me.

5 – American whiskeys are having a moment

American-made whiskeys are lighting the world on fire.

They should.

They’re great, especially when it comes to choices like Bulleit which is distilled from a mash of 100% malted barley and aged in charred new American oak barrels.

I find it very smooth with a pleasant hint of vanilla and a super, almost fruity flavor profile. There's a hint of caramel, too. Learn more from Bulleit here.

MyPOV: Less than 1% of the world’s fine wines and whiskeys are collectible. You can get started for around $500 or even less in some cases – pun absolutely intended. I’m glad I did... fine wines have outperformed the S&P 500 by 4.2 to 1 since 1952 according to Forbes. The rare whiskey market has increased 564% since inception according to the Scotch Whisky Association. You can learn more from my friends at Oeno. And yes, I am a client.