☕ $20 trillion might be too low
Jan 15, 2026Howdy! 👋
A while back I said that Tesla could be worth $20T.
…Possible with “extreme execution.”
Guess what he’s been doing lately.
Exactly that.
Executing extremely.
So, here are 10 (of the latest) reasons I can't possibly own enough Tesla shares...
1 – Tesla recently dropped a record monster 46.7 GWh of energy storage.
With an amazing 14.2 GWh deployed alone in Q4 alone, smashing records and beating expectations by a mile. (Read)
AI data centers are sucking power like an electronic black hole and grids are a totally antiquated, unprepared mess.
Megapacks are the fix—high-margin, scaling like crazy, new factories in Houston, Shanghai, Lathrop cranking.
Energy (and data) have always been Tesla's cash machine – something that many people, btw, laughed not so politely at me for saying back in 2011.
2 – Optimus is going to be so successful that people are going to forget Tesla made cars.
Gen 3 hardware rolling into Giga Texas right now, Version 3 with FSD-v15 brains—dexterity, navigation, autonomy that's straight sci-fi a year ago.
Musk says 80% of long-term value.
Thousands deployed internally by 2026, then scaling to 100k/year.
It will change the labor markets, redefine work and change entire economies; probably already is!
3 – Tesla built the most advanced, cleanest lithium refinery on the planet.
Robstown, Texas—first spodumene-to-hydroxide in North America, acid-free process, vertical control from dirt to battery.
Production is underway with new raw materials through the kiln confirmed January 2026. China’s lithium “advantage” just got canned. (Read)
4 – Starlink turns every Tesla (and Tesla related devices) into an unbreakable node on the global grid.
Fresh patent (2025 filing, published Dec) for roof-integrated RF-transparent antenna—hidden, seamless, no ugly dish.
Satellite connectivity is baked in which means zero dead zones for FSD updates, streaming, remote everything.
Your car is the convergence zone, not just transportation.
5 – Without SpaceX, China would be leading the way and the US would be playing catch-up (and probably badly at that).
Musk says Starship hits one launch per hour in ~3 years.
That means dirt cheap orbital cost, building in space, Mars and more.
Space is a multi-billion-dollar opportunity all by itself.
6 – Tesla is the #1 luxury brand in China, even with BYD crushing mass-market EVs.
We're talking 2.26M vs Tesla's 1.64M global '25 but that's neither here nor there.
Luxury, loyalty and safety.
Competitors have no choice but to go cheap because Tesla owns the top end and has the margins to prove it. (Read)
7 – Tesla's about to nuke an entire supply chain by printing its own power magnetics in-house.
This means next-gen motors ditching “rare-earth” hype and probably putting an entire generation of clickbait artists outta business.
It also means “vertical supply again” which translates into lower costs, better performance for vehicles, energy, Optimus and more.
Here’s one of a series of related patents.
Oh, and once again bigger, more sustainable and growing margins – I love that part.
8 – Cybercab production kicks April 2026 at Giga Texas.
Unsupervised FSD means fleets of cars – and soon trucks – running 24/7 with no drivers.
Economics flip from legacy capex-heavy cars to software with wheels.
Every Tesla owner can potentially send his or her car out to work for the day when they’re not using it.
That could redefine passive income for millions of hard-working families.
Tesla can change a few lines of code and add billions of dollars to the top line. (Read)
9 – Energy margins already stupid silly and exploding.
Deployments doubling+, factories ramping to 133 GWh/year capacity soon.
Ticker tourists are focused on what might happen a decade from now but Tesla is the only player already capable of delivering at scale.
Quiet trillion-dollar shift already happening. (Read)
10 – Tesla is the biggest “memory stock” of all.
Investors are enamored with Micron, Samsung and more lately but what they don’t realize is that Tesla is a rolling memory network ecosystem with video, fusion, edge inference and feedback, none of which needs to be reset.
The whole enchilada improves by remembering.
Plus, over the air updates means that the entire company is built on data recall and reuse.
Anybody who thinks Musk isn't all over “memory” hasn’t taken a serious look.
Orders of magnitude more monetizable to my way of thinking.
I am beginning to think $20T might actually be low. 🤔
Critics scream about “competition.”
Valid point but show me another company anywhere on the planet doing what Tesla does at scale.
The “competition” line is a red herring and I run into it a lot in the TV studios and at presentations around the world.
For example, legacy automakers talk a big game on EVs, but they’re still wrestling with outdated supply chains, bloated bureaucracies, and half-hearted pivots that bleed cash on every model.
Chinese players like BYD crank out volume but they’re hyper-focused on price wars in a subsidized home market, without the vertical integration, software edge, or audacious bets on autonomy and robotics that define Tesla.
No one else I am aware of is simultaneously scaling massive Gigafactories, iterating FSD at breakneck speed, deploying robotaxis (even in cautious geofenced steps), and pushing humanoid Optimus toward production realities.
Competitors chase quarterly earnings, but Musk is chasing a multi-planetary timeline and setting the rules for everybody else at the same time.
Tesla detractors and the spreadsheet gang also grouse about valuations, something I hear a lot.
They also conveniently or deliberately forget that Amazon peaked at a PE north of 3,000 (back in the dot-com days when it was basically losing money hand over fist), Netflix peaked at over 384 (trailing PE in its high-growth phase around 2015-2016), Nvidia peaked at over 243 (recent highs in the AI frenzy), and Apple peaked at around 42 (more recently, though it hit higher in earlier cycles) – all if memory serves and all right before those supposedly “uninvestable according to the experts” companies turned into... you guessed it, life-changing wealth.
My point is that high-growth, high-influence companies don't play by yesterday’s "fair value" constraints. They’re priced for huge structural changes in our world that are already profoundly impacting today’s markets.
Some people can’t get past Musk himself.
That’s fair but remember your history or ignore it if you like.
Visionaries are inevitably controversial in their time. For example, Alan Turing was ridiculed, Galileo was condemned and Henry Ford was deeply flawed – yet all three reshaped our planet.
The question you want to sort out as an investors is whether you’ll be comfortable waking up one morning years from now knowing you could have invested “back in the day” when Tesla was far less expensive.
People already struggle with the idea that the missed some of the greatest names in history which is why they swear up, down, and sideways that they won’t miss another Palantir… or Apple… or Intel… or Microsoft.
You get the idea.
Tesla has returned 27,719.64% since June 29th, 2010, which is enough to change every $1,000 invested on the day it went public into $278,196.40 today. The SPY, a popular ETF, has returned 780.89% by comparison over the same time period.
Can you afford to miss that kind of wealth potential if Musk does it again?
I don’t know of too many investors who can.
I plan to own shares for the rest of my life and hope I’m smart enough to buy more. It may not be perfect, but it works for me.
Bottom Line
It makes no sense whatsoever to apply the same tired old analysis but expect different results.
Profits are always found at the edge of absurdity.
Think differently.
Embrace change.
Because it’s happening and there is an entirely new generation of millionaires being printed right now.
As always, let’s MAKE it a great day.
You got this — I promise!
Keith 😀
