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☕️ 3 reasons I still urge caution & 2 compelling companies to buy anyway

Jun 25, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The S&P 500 is flirting with new highs yet again.

I feel really sorry for the naysayers; it must be tough to be so wrong for so long.

They’ve got one heckuva problem on their hands right now because many have sat out yet another run higher off the April lows. Still others are worried about playing “catch up” or simply “getting back in” to stocks they’ve missed yet again despite the best intentions.

We, on the other hand, have no such worries.

I’ve encouraged you to hang in there and to play offense every chance you get.

Hopefully, you have and you are.

Why?

Simple.

Innovation has never ever failed to produce profits and that is an investable opportunity and a half. Sure, the markets will go up and down but the thing you want to keep top of mind is that volatility is a travelling companion, not something to fear.

Chaos creates opportunity and the more of the former there is, the more of the latter you have.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – 3 reasons I still urge caution & 2 compelling companies to buy anyway

There are loads of people who think that the Middle East is a foregone conclusion.

I’m not one of ‘em.

My good friend and colleague, the super savvy Scott “the Cow Guy” Shellady asked me about that on his show when we sat down to chat on RFDTV yesterday. (Watch)

2 – NATO Defense spending to 5%

NATO allies have agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035—more than doubling the previous 2% target set in 2014. (Read)

The new framework calls for at least 3.5% toward core defense capabilities, with the rest supporting critical infrastructure, innovation, and industrial resilience.

Member states must submit annual plans outlining their path to the goal. The decision reflects growing urgency around geopolitical threats, particularly Russia, and reinforces NATO’s collective defense under Article 5. Secretary General Mark Rutte called it a “quantum leap” for alliance security and economic opportunity.

I call it investable.

One of my faves has returned 65.36% since I brought it to the OBA Family’s attention but the other’s ‘dragging, although I suspect not for much longer on this news. The S&P 500, by comparison, has turned in 62.80% - so we’re slightly ahead of the game numerically speaking.

The real “win” though – and what I’m counting on from a portfolio perspective - is that the stock I’m alluding to is roughly 40% less volatile than the S&P 500… which means that it’s helping investors who own it achieve a higher, risk adjusted return because its return is better than the S&P 500.

Hooyah!

3 – Data centers are the new football stadium

Meta’s dropping $10B on what’ll be the biggest data center in the Western Hemisphere—2,250 acres of ex-soybean fields in Louisiana. (Read)

Impressive, right?

Not so fast.

Meta’s getting 20 years of tax breaks, courtesy of Louisiana officials who apparently skipped Econ 101. Only 500 permanent jobs—and that’s generous considering how fast AI eats headcount.

Meanwhile, the rest of the state’s stuck with busted roads, underfunded schools, drugs and higher taxes.

My POV: Deals like this aren’t investment—they’re corporate welfare with better PR.

Think about it:

If this project was really transformational, Meta would pay full freight.

Instead, it’s the same con we’ve seen for decades: economic promises up front, fiscal hangover on the back end. Swap “stadium” for “server farm” and it’s déjà vu all over again.

If a deal can’t survive without tax breaks, maybe it shouldn’t.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Very few miners struck it rich during the gold rush, but plenty of folks selling shovels did. It’s a very short list (of stocks).

4 – What to do if you miss a trade?

Yesterday I suggested a counter-trade trend using SPX or Nasdaq puts to capitalize on the possibility of a quick downside reversal but then got sucked into meetings… so I wound up missing my own idea. (See #3)

Loads of aspiring investors and traders view a situation like this as the end of the world.

It’s not.

Mindset is key.

For one thing, the markets will always be here and missing a trade every now and then because life gets in the way is absolutely normal… not a reason to flip out.

For another, things tend to happen for a reason. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up this morning as I type which means that any trade I might have placed would already be going against me… which is also not a big deal.

If you want any kind of longevity in the markets whatsoever, you’ve got to learn to step back and get comfortable with stepping forward (again).

Speaking of which, I still think that big money traders are itching to engineer a sharp quick downdraft to get on board with many names they missed and to reset risk as the Middle East continues to jar headlines.

So, I’ll take a fresh look at placing both trades today and – if the numbers line up – make my move.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many aspiring investors and traders worry about being right but the world’s most successful focus on being profitable… even if they’re wrong or, in this case, miss an opportunity like I did. Let that sink in.

5 – Slapping two struggling brands together doesn’t guarantee profits

Investors who fall for it tend to be worse off for the experience.

Case in point, Krispy Kreme doughnuts will disappear from McDonald’s menus starting next week because – get this – the partnership fell short of financial expectations. (Read)

Shares of Krispy Kreme are down -79.04% since the pilot scheme began while shares of Unka Ronald have increased 27.19% over the same time frame. The S&P 500, by comparison, has returned 70.51% since the pilot program rolled out.

Junk food has a way of doing that.

Don’t get me wrong, I love my donuts and used to love my Big Macs before the last one made me so sick an hour later that I’ve lost all desire to eat one ever again.

This is a textbook case of why scale without synergy doesn’t work.

What you want to focus on instead is something we talk about frequently.

Businesses that have three things in common - strong core demand, operational leverage, and pricing power—not those relying on partnerships to paper over structural issues.

Think Apple versus Peloton, for example.

I’ll be here if you need me.