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☕️ 4 reasons I now think 7,000 may be too low, plus the real risk with Tesla

Jul 07, 2025

Howdy! 👋

My heart skipped a beat when I saw the horrific flash flood reports from Texas.

I’ve spent a lot of time in the outdoors and there is nothing scarier nor more dangerous than a severe weather system, especially when something like this quite literally comes from nowhere.

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone involved.

As for the markets, they’ve got a lot of “out of nowhere” potential right now, too.

The biggest risk is one most investors aren’t counting on… something I alluded to in last night’s short.

Not for nothing, I’m leery that we haven’t seen serious pullback just yet but I’m not letting that stop me either. The markets can and do go for long periods without a reset. (Watch)

Short term noise comes and goes but profit potential is a permanent fixture.

Volatility is simply the price of admission.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Yep, 7,000 may be too low 🤷🏻‍️

I knew 6,500 was aggressive and that 7,000 by year end would be a reach when I put that on the table recently. (Watch) Now, though, I’m thinking even that may be too low.

Before you think I’ve lost my marbles – or at least the two I have left - here’s my thinking with the fabulous David Asman who asked me to make my case this morning. (Watch)

2 - Tesla investors want stability, not drama

Unka Elon broke the Internet this weekend by stating he intends to form the ‘America Party’. And now, that same news is “breaking” the stock. (Read)

As I noted on Fox Business this morning, I wish Musk would simply go back to being an eccentric genius. (Watch)

The real risk with Tesla is investor fatigue.

Would I buy more shares if it falls further?

Undoubtedly and, to be fair, I’ll be gritting my teeth the entire time. None of what’s happening obviates AI, robotics, FSD, energy and a dozen other things he’s working on.

This isn’t unusual.

Visionary leaders tend to play 4D chess while others play tiddlywinks and Musk certainly qualifies. Political leaders on both sides would be wise to recognize… love him or hate him, aside – that Musk could galvanize a broad swath of people who have simply had it with Beltway Bull-feathers.

Musk is the poster child for modern controversial genius, but he pales in comparison to others in history including, for example, Cornelius Vanderbilt, John Rockefeller, Thomas Edison and Howard Hughes, just to name a few off the top of my head.

Still, I think the BOD – Board of Directors – may need to step in here.

Investors want stability, not drama.

Me included.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Wall Street doesn’t care whether you “like” someone or not. It cares if they make money, dominate the markets and/or change the game. The other thing to keep in mind is that you and I may despise a CEO’s ego or disagree with choices he or she makes, but if they deliver returns, that’s what the markets reward, not likeability.

3 – Tariffs, part Deux

Not much to say here.

The markets hate uncertainty, and big traders have simply stepped back to wait out the situation as US President Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff reprieve edges closer to ending. (Read)

Throwing fuel on the fire, there’s also news that there will be an additional 10% tariff imposed on nations aligning themselves with “Anti-American policies of BRICS.” (Read)

I’d encourage you to take a deep breath with regard to both.

We’ve seen this movie so many times we know the plot and the lines.

Great companies adapt.

But world-class names like those we talk about frequently profit… and often tremendously.

The weak?

They blame policy.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Don't buy “POS stocks” – and yes, that stands for something I won’t print here. 💯

Btw, I do my very best to help investors buy great stocks by sharing what I’ve learned over the past 45+ years in markets in One Bar Ahead®, our premium research journal. If you’re getting the results you want and are happy with ‘em, GREAT! If you’re tired of fighting for Wall Street’s scraps, I’ll be here and would love to help if that’s of interest.

4 – Free cookies and extra guac move the needle, but apps move the $

Consumers might be tightening their wallets, but fast-casual chains aren’t particularly concerned. They’re too busy bribing diners with loyalty programs. (Read)

For example, Starbucks pulled in over 59% of its U.S. transactions last quarter from rewards members, while Chipotle’s loyalty crowd accounts for about 30% of daily sales.

Same for Cava, Sweetgreen, and Potbelly which are all getting creative with how customers redeem points.

Here’s what really matters, and it’s not the free cookies and extra guac.

It’s the data.

Every tap of a loyalty app feeds these companies a goldmine of consumer insights: what you buy, when you buy, how often you come back.

In a world where data drives pricing, promotion, and supply chain decisions, brands that own the customer relationship don’t just sell food – they sell predictability.

That’s the real competitive edge.

That said, I’ll continue to avoid fast food stocks because – guac or no guac – the potential returns pale in comparison to other choices I’d rather make and own. But that’s just me.

Chipotle is probably the survivor and the play here, imho.

5 – When a deal’s fishy, don’t be the tuna

AI hyperscaler and Nvidia-backed CoreWeave – an AI cloud computing startup - is acquiring Core Scientific – which began as a crypto miner but is now shifting to AI data centers - in an all-stock deal worth ~$9 billion. (Read)

Great, right?

Eliminate $10B in lease obligations, secure 1.3 GW of U.S. data center power (plus 1GW more in the pipeline), and boom—instant hyperscaler muscle.

Except…

CoreWeave already tried to buy Core Scientific once. 

That deal fell apart and we never got to the bottom as to why. 

Now, it's back. 

Core Scientific shareholders get a 66% premium… but just 10% of the combined company.

My take?

Something smells fishy.

It’s one thing when regulators kibosh a deal for sport but entirely another when companies walk away because they can’t agree on synergy—like Nissan and Honda recently, for example. 

My experience is that usually means cultural clash, bad numbers, or worse… something hidden under the hood.

Pass.

Keith’s Investing Tip: If the first marriage didn’t work, don’t remarry at twice the cost.

Trade Idea: If you want US infrastructure exposure without the drama, consider something like Digital Realty Trust instead.

Just sayin’.