☕ A dividend choice for rough times AND growth

Howdy 👋 

And we’re off…  

The markets are red again despite an offer from President Trump to extend negotiations with Iran. 🤦‍ 

Frustrating to be sure. 

I won’t hold it against you if you’ve got volatility fatigue – you’re not alone. Even I’m feeling it creep in around the edges lately; and that’s really unusual. 

Stay focused. 

There is a bright spot and it’s consistent with the very malaise I’ve just described – so speaking personally, I’ve learned to welcome it over the years as a sign that things may take a turn for the better. 

Bottoming is a process and, frankly, one that’s happening now, which means that smart investors still have plenty of choice and profit potential ahead. 

So… be smart! 😀 

Remember… 

You’ve only got to get 2 things right as an investor: 1) buying the world's best companies making "must-have products and services" when nobody wants 'em & selling when others can't resist buying then 2) keeping risk as low as possible at all times. 

You got this – and I am right here with you every step of the way! 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Geopolitics 101: When ‘friends’ ghost you and oil rips to $110 

Iran has repeatedly said that China is a “friendly” yet turned away two ultra large container vessels owned by the China Ocean Shipping Company. (Read) 

So much for that idea. 

Iran just ghosted China and I can’t imagine that sits well with Beijing unless the two – Iran and China – are in cahoots (which, btw, I think is highly likely because both probably think that’ll help ‘em leverage against the US). 

Meanwhile, that creates another opening. 

I’ll be buying more of my fave dinosaur juicer and some more of the market’s “least” faves lately starting with big tech that is being all but thrown out with the bathwater lately. 

You? 

Keith’s Investing Tip: The markets are the only store on earth where people fear a sale. 

2 – Novartis makes 2nd billion-dollar buy in a week 

Somebody’s got an itch to spend. 

Novartis is buying yet another biotech company, this time Excellergy for up to $2B. (Read) 

I’ve said it before. 

I think the company is trying to get ahead of a looming patent cliff before going over the proverbial edge. 

What they’re doing is a page out of my playbook, so I like what I see… Always play offense even if you must think defensively to do it. 

There is perhaps no other industry on the planet that will undergo more change in the next 10 years than biotech. Investing now could make all sorts of sense even if the path ahead is undeniably uncertain. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: People constantly worry about possibilities when the world’s most successful investors concentrate on probabilities. Know the difference and you’ll do just fine. 

I’ll be here if you need me, meanwhile. I regularly hear from folks that being an “OBAer” has helped calm ‘em down, instill a healthy dose of optimism and confidence that YOU may appreciate if you could use a dose of those things too. 

3 – Another big business leaves NYC for Wall Street South 

FC Barcelona, the world-renowned soccer powerhouse, is officially calling it quits in NYC to plant its new flag in downtown Miami at One Biscayne Tower. (Read) 

CP Group Managing Partner Angelo Bianco says the move represents a "liberating" business environment that traditional hubs like New York simply can no longer match. 

He’s being polite. 

Not “like” NYC… he means NYC. 

FC Barcelona is a $6.5B club if memory serves – which means that there is a crap-ton of money that’s going to go south with the club, never to return. 

At the risk of sounding like a broken record… no scratch that… to sound exactly like a broken record… money flows to where it is treated best.  

Palantir, D-Wave Systems, GFL Environmental and Trinity have all pulled up stakes and relocated to Miami. Other brands that have apparently committed there now include Citadel, ServiceNow, Wells Fargo, Varonis, TracFone and even Playboy. 

I have heard of a dozen other big names behind closed doors that are also contemplating a move; there will undoubtedly be more. 

I’ve also got to believe that the NYSE is watching carefully as are NYC’s other teams. 

Many people – politicians especially – wanna convince themselves that this is a temporary change but I think it’s far more likely a permanent structural shift. 

New York risks becoming a modern ghost town if this keeps up; certainly dystopian.  

I hope not but… whoa! 🤔 

Investing Idea: Storage lockers and moving boxes strike me as a good idea for a long time to come, but finding a company with direct exposure is challenging. However, there’s also Real Brokerage Inc which stands out as a publicly traded real estate brokerage with significant ties to Miami. 

4 – A dividend choice for rough times AND growth

Many investors are in search of stability and current income and I don’t blame ‘em one bit. 

Seems to me that Mondelez could be interesting because it might fit the bill… 14 consecutive years of dividend increases, an attractive yield of 3.33% and attractive pricing versus long-term growth prospects. And a global footprint. 

Might be time to do some research… and some sampling (because I believe in knowing what I own). 🤔 

5 – One way to catch a lux snapback if peace breaks out 

It’s been among the world’s worst kept secrets. 

LVMH, Hermes and Ferrari are getting hammered as war rages in Iran. (Read) 

The Middle East WAS the world’s fastest growing luxury market last year… on track for 6-8% despite global luxury goods flatlining. Roughly 80% of that came from Dubai. 

Dubai’s housing market is probably in for a rough go of it too, now that I think about it. 

Trade Idea: Might be worth a flyer on Hermes or Richemont. Or, alternatively, buying out of the money LEAPs calls in the luxury space that limit downside while offering potentially amplified upside on a snap back if peace breaks out. 

Tread lightly, though… leverage cuts both ways.  

Bottom Line 

Investing, to a point I make often, is not a game of rushed decisions. 

Discipline, focus, and patience are the most undervalued assets on the planet today. 

You got this – I promise! 

Now and as always, let’s MAKE it a great day and finish the week strong. 

Keith 😀 

PS: Please keep an eye on your email if you’re a member of the One Bar Ahead® Family because I’ve got a “sell recommendation” in this morning’s update (to make space for two new recommendations in the upcoming April Issue). 😀