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☕️ Amazon & Apple: Alexa takes orders, Tim cashes ‘em

Oct 31, 2025

Howdy! 👋

That didn’t take long.

Buyers have come back into the markets as earnings and a $380B spending spree have woken up the “negative Nellies” who are suddenly “positive Petes.”

The bubble babble is reaching a crescendo, of course.

That’s to be expected.

The important thing now is to have a firm grasp on risk management – something the vast majority of FOMO-addled investors are completely ignoring because their greed glands are in overdrive.

Keep your emotions out of the equation; and,
Your wits about you when others lose theirs.

Profits are always found on the edge of absurdity.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Apple strikes again

I am well aware that I sound like a broken record.

Apple is most dangerous when people write it off like they did earlier this year when shares sank to ~$172 in April (and I told you in no uncertain terms it was a buy).

Today they’re at $270 as I type, a 57% run higher.

And down again after great earnings while big traders clear out the stops (something I wrote to you about last Thursday with an explanation about why this happens a lot lately).

Yesterday’s earnings have me grinning ear to ear.

And not because the numbers were good… but because they were Apple good. (Read)

Let’s review:

Revenue: $102.5 billion, up 8% year over year.
Net income: $27.5 billion, or $1.85 per share (vs. $1.64 adjusted a year ago).
Gross margin: 47.2% — up again.
iPhone: $49.02 billion, a record September quarter.
Services: $28.75 billion — an all-time high.
Wall Street’s spreadsheet gang still doesn’t get it.

Good!

That means an even better opportunity to pick up more shares on the “cheap” before they do.

Apple is still one of the most underrecognized AI choices on the planet if not the most underappreciated, imho.

Keith’s Investing Tip: There are only two things you’ve got to get right as an investor, especially when it comes to a stock like Apple. First, you’ve got to buy the world’s best companies when nobody wants ‘em and sell when others can’t resist buying. And second, keep risk as low as possible at all times by using tactics that keep the odds in your favour.

If you have no idea what I’ve just said or how to go about doing it, know that’s a totally fixable problem. You’re not alone – every investor starts somewhere. I did, too. I’ll be here if you need me.

2 – Jensen’s beer bash marks the next great billion dollar tech alliance

I’ve spent a good portion of my career in the Pacific Rim and if there's one thing I’ve learned in all that time, it’s that a beer bash often cements the deal. I’ve been to my share, and they are plenty fun, btw.

No surprise then.

Samsung just announced it’s buying 50,000 Nvidia GPUs to build an “AI Megafactory” that will automate chip production for smartphones and robots. (Read)

Keith’s Investing Tip: When the world’s biggest chipmaker must buy 50,000 of somebody else’s chips to stay relevant, you know who’s really running the show. Hint, it’s not Samsung.

You know what to do. Calls, LEAPs, additional shares… I can think of a dozen different ways to play the situation and hope you can too. And not just with Nvidia and Samsung either. 😎

3 – The real reason Netflix wants to split

Netflix just announced a 10-for-1 stock split; Wall Street’s acting like it reinvented television. (Read)

I see a lot of confusion about stock splits so let’s set the record straight.

Nothing about the business changes.

You don’t suddenly get ten times richer. In this case, you just get ten times more pieces of the same pie.

Existing Netflix shareholders as of November 10 will receive nine new shares for every one, they own, effective November 17. The company says it’s making shares “more accessible” to employees and retail investors.

That’s the real “tell” – a poker expression meaning a subtle clue that reveals what’s really going on.

Netflix is now one of just a handful of S&P 500 companies with a four-digit share price — and clearly doesn’t love that comparison.

Now, don’t get me wrong.

Stock splits can be a sign of confidence. They often bring in new investors, boost liquidity, and add a bit of short-term excitement. But they don’t change the fundamentals.

In this case, I think it’s a smart move.

Netflix is still Netflix, but a cheaper share price will bring an entirely new crowd of investors running and, in doing so, likely push prices far higher over time.

I still don’t own it and am unlikely to because I like the better story, that is Palantir and other stocks that are a better fit and which have far better profit potential given my view of the world.

Even so, I’ll celebrate those who do today.

Well done, everyone! 🎉

4 – Alexa, define dead cat bounce

Amazon shares jumped nearly 12% after earnings showed a “rebound” in cloud growth. AWS revenue rose 20% to $33 billion; retail sales climbed 11%, and advertising shot up 24% to $17.7 billion. (Read)

Cue the headlines: “Amazon’s back!”

Not so fast.

This is the same company that can’t keep its own cloud from crashing, builds prescription vending machines nobody asked for, and now wants applause for doing what its rivals have already done faster and better.

CEO Andy Jassy says AWS is “growing at a pace we haven’t seen since 2022.” Sure — but that was before Amazon had to lay off tens of thousands and scramble to prove it could compete in AI infrastructure. 🤦‍

MyPOV: Amazon’s still a mile wide, but its moat’s getting shallow. I’ll take the companies powering the cloud — not the ones trying to remind us they still own one.

Trade Idea: I’d love to find a way to short AMZN, but that’s just me. Avoid or Putskies, meanwhile? 🤔

5 – It’s Issue Friday & that means new research, a new recommendation and more

Keep an eye on your inbox OBAers — the November issue of One Bar Ahead® will be out shortly.

This month I’ll be sharing my take on an “old dog that’s learned a new billion-dollar trick”, smart year-end tax moves, a few thoughts on what to do if you don’t know what to do – something I get asked a lot about lately. Of course, there’s also the latest portfolio review, a look at what the headlines mean for your money and more.

Enjoy!

BTW and if you’re interested, you can learn more about One Bar Ahead® here. People tell me it’s made a huge difference in how they approach the markets, the stocks they buy and the confidence they now have from being an OBAer.