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☕️ AMD just cemented its path to $600

Oct 06, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Earnings season is a-knocking.

That’s great because it means we can get down to real results and real numbers rather than lurching from headline to headline, as is almost always the case as the markets transition from one earnings season to the next.

I expect the next few days to be all about “setting the tone” as noted in last night’s Sunday Short. (Watch)

And what a week it could be if the OpenAI/AMD deal is any indication! 💯

Remember…

Investing is about focus, not noise.

Plan.

Execute.

Repeat.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – The markets would love it if Washington stayed closed

There’s a lot of debate about whether the markets do better under the left or the right but that’s moot.

The dirty little secret traders and smart investors alike know is that the market often does best when the government is so discombobulated that it’s outta the way.

Don’t get me wrong – the human cost stinks and there’s just no getting around that.

My $0.02 is that the shutdown is tremendously irresponsible. Our politicians ought to be castigated for shenanigans like this – no pay, no perks, no pensions – until there’s a deal.

But that’s a story for another time.

Speaking as an investor, here’s my thinking with the super-savvy Stuart Varney who very kindly asked me for my take this morning ahead of today’s opening bell – an honour as always!

Plus, my thoughts on two tech companies, one of which isn’t traditionally thought of as “tech” but – I submit – should be. (Watch)

Scared money never makes money and Wall Street knows that much of America is scared. So, they’re buying in anticipation of a “fix” when the shutdown is over.

What they know is counter-intuitive… the retail investing public will start buying when the crisis is over.

Three guesses who will be selling ‘em shares at higher prices?

Answer… institutional traders and every smart 5 with Fitzer, and OBAer who is paying attention. 😀

Keith’s Investing Tip: Think like a shark, not a minnow!

2 – AMD just cemented its path to $600

AMD just went vertical — up 34% as I type — after OpenAI announced plans to take as much as a 10% stake in the chipmaker. (Read)

The deal includes warrants for up to 160 million shares and a rollout of 6 gigawatts of AMD’s Instinct AI GPUs over several years — starting with 1 gigawatt in 2026.

At – get this – as little as $0.01 per share if specific price targets are hit if the reporting I’m seeing so far is correct.

Nothing like having a little incentive, eh??!! 👏💯👏

I probably don’t own enough shares. 🤦‍

Short-term, a swing trade to catch the quick money when it takes profits could be interesting.

3 – Tesla ready for a world record breaker

It’ll be a world record breaker.

Anybody who is foolish enough to bet against Musk and Tesla at this point probably bet against Apple back in the day and, for that matter, probably still is.

Don’t be foolish.

Keith’s Investing Tip: I hear from folks all the time who just can’t get past Musk himself for whatever reason and that’s a-okay. Personally, I have a hard time getting past El Zucko and have for years no matter how much money is on the table with Meta. Just be sure you’re comfortable with the all but certain fact that there’s an entirely new generation of millionaires being created. And, be sure to find another path if not this one.

OBAers understand the tradeoff perfectly and I’ll be here if you’d like to join ‘em. They were in on AMD and Tesla early and are no doubt grinning ear to ear this morning like I am.

4 – Regional banks want a seat at the grown-ups table

Fifth Third Bancorp just announced it’ll buy Comerica in a $10.9 billion all-stock deal, creating the ninth-largest U.S. bank with roughly $288 billion in assets once it closes early next year. (Read)

Comerica shares popped more than 11% on the news while Fifth Third slipped about 3% — a typical knee-jerk reaction when the buyer reaches for the checkbook.

The real story here – and the one you want to focus on - is scale.

This deal gives Fifth Third deeper roots in high-growth markets, more commercial-lending firepower, and a stronger digital and payments footprint — exactly the kind of foundation regional players need as banking regs loosen up.

Hmmm. 🤔

5 – Can PayPal’s prodigy reboot Verizon’s dial-up growth?

Verizon just named former PayPal CEO Dan Schulman as its new chief, replacing Hans Vestberg, who’s been steering the ship since 2018. (Read)

Schulman’s got chops — he took PayPal’s revenue from $8 billion to $30 billion and added hundreds of millions of users along the way. Solid, no doubt.

I look at this and wonder whether he can work the same magic in a business where growth has slowed to a crawl and the competition is circling like sharks who smell blood in the water.

Shares dropped ~2% on the news, which tells you investors are cautious — and rightly so.

Makes sense.

Verizon is still digesting its $20 billion Frontier Communications deal while T-Mobile and even SpaceX are busy redrawing the entire connectivity landscape.

Meanwhile, people are holding on to older smartphones longer, waiting for AI-equipped devices like Apple’s next-gen iPhone (which btw, is doing great).

Translation: data growth may stall before it re-accelerates.

I wish Schulman the best, but let’s be honest — this feels more like a turnaround attempt than a transformation. It’s just dominated by companies building the future of connectivity rather than trying to catch up to it.

The first law of the jungle is that bigger, stronger players survive — and Verizon just doesn’t strike me as an apex predator anymore. 🤷🏻‍

To be fair, I am not in the C-suite, so this is conjecture on my part but over the years I’ve learned the hard way to pay attention to the ache I get in my brain when something’s off in a deal like this one.

Hmmm.

Putskies – meaning a bet the stock declines.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Buy the best, ignore the rest.