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☕️ AMD’s running again, and I hope you own it!

Oct 07, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Another shutdown “deal” has come and gone.

Figures.

Politicians have no skin in our game, so they continue to grandstand at our expense.

Two can play that game.

Dock their pay, strip ‘em of benefits, reduce healthcare to bare-bones urgent care only for as long as the government is shut down.

Or, pull a JP Morgan and lock ‘em into the Congressional library until there's a deal like he did with bankers in the early 20th century to avoid a complete financial meltdown during the panic of 1907.

Disgusting, imho.

But that’s enough about that.

Let’s focus on much brighter and quite literally more profitable news.

The S&P 500 has just hit another all-time high.

I’m sure you can do the math just like I can.

That’s $16 TRILLION in value and a jump of nearly 40% off April 8 lows.

Once again…

Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you cannot control.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Gold and bitcoin to new highs

It’s not just the stock market.

Gold and bitcoin have now hit new highs.

I hope you’re on board with at least one but preferably both.

Simple as that.

2 – Know what you own, just don’t let it be yesterday’s market

Peter Lynch is lauded by individual investors for his visionary approach to the stock market while managing Fidelity’s Magellan Fund and for coining the oft-miscited expression “know what you own.”

This stopped me in my tracks.

CNBC is reporting that Lynch said he has “zero AI” stocks and that he “couldn’t literally pronounce Nvidia until about 8 months ago.” (Read)

The takeaway?

Times change.

I laud Mr. Lynch for sticking to his guns but have seen more than one hero go to zero during the course of my career.

Buffett famously stayed outta Apple for years before reversing course and subsequently building Apple into one of his largest positions. Other examples include Charlie Munger, who kicked himself for missing Google, and Buffett again, who ignored Amazon for years before realizing Jeff Bezos wasn’t just selling books — he was rewriting capitalism.

Imagine what Lynch has missed!!!

Every $1,000 invested in Nvidia just 5 years ago is worth roughly $13,722 today. A decade ago… try around $300,207.

Compare that to the same $1,000 invested in the SPY which would be worth ~$2,149 and ~$4,014.60 respectively over the same time frame.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Blindly ignoring the life-changing themes of our time – heck, of any time - will cost you terribly over time. It’s one thing if you’ve made a fortune and can afford to sit on the sidelines like Mr. Lynch, but I don’t know too many individual investors who have that latitude. So, learn to “know what you own” and do something about it. Profits can last a lifetime, but excuses will cost ya.

3 – Time to buy Dell?

Dell just raised its long-term revenue and profit growth targets, now guiding for 7–9% annual revenue growth over the next five years — nearly double its prior 3–4%. (Read)

That’s got plenty of folks excited — as it should.

More growth + more AI = more headlines and more profit potential.

But that’s not the real take away here.

Dell’s announcement signals a newly dawning corporate awareness. As Dell’s COO Jeff Clarke put it, “We were all wrong about how big we thought the AI market was two years ago, and it’s nothing but bigger.”

Should you buy Dell?

It’s probably not a bad choice.

However, here’s something to think about.

Every time the AI trade heats up, Dell’s numbers do too. Then, when the hype cools, so do the margins — because hardware is a knife fight, not a moat. Dell’s gross margins hover around 23–24%.

Contrast that with two other stocks making headlines recently. Both Nvidia and AMD are minting 60–65%+ margins selling the silicon Dell must buy to exist.

Reminds me of the Gold Rush in 1849.

Very few miners made it big, but the store owners selling picks, shovels and whiskey did.

Every Dell upgrade is effectively demand confirmation for Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Buy companies making the “must haves” because the odds are better than buying companies that make the “nice to haves.”

4 – Hood-winked again

Tens of thousands of Robinhood users were reportedly unable to access their accounts after the AMD surge sent volatility through the roof. (Read)

This is the 3rd time in 4 years that the platform has “glitched” at a critical moment if memory serves.

Coincidence?

Perhaps, but I think not.

Big market makers pay Robinhood hundreds of millions of dollars to direct customer trades through ‘em which means that when the markets get dicey, Vlad and his crew are going to protect them, not YOU.

I think it’s highly unlikely that Wall Street’s sharks didn’t miss a single trade even though scores of Robinhooders apparently did.

You didn’t really think zero commissions was “free”, did ya? 🤷🏻‍

MyPOV: If the regulators are serious about protecting individual investors, why are they not up in Robinhood’s face with a microscope??!! How are there not uptime guarantees or a market-wide reset when retail traders get locked out while institutions keep rolling? Just spitballin’ here.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Incidents like this are exactly why I believe you can beat Wall Street at its own game — not by playing faster, but by playing smarter. The key is using tactics that take away Wall Street’s advantage and put the odds back on your side of the table.

5 – AMD calls +65,000%

Barclays just raised its price target on AMD to $300 (up from $200) and reiterated an Overweight rating after the company inked a new AI infrastructure deal with OpenAI. (Read)

Barclays aren’t the only ones either.

Jefferies, Cantor Fitzgerald, Wells Fargo, UBS to name a few.

Welcome to Wall Street’s favorite game — raising price targets after the stock’s already run.

AMD’s up 92% in six months, adding more than $100 billion in market cap practically overnight — then the spreadsheet gang gets bullish. 🤦‍

I told you to buy back in April around $76 and it’s ~$215 today — up about 183%.

Hopefully, you paid attention like the OBA Family has.

What’s happening is as real as it gets and – dare I say it – will likely print an entirely new generation of millionaires.

The partnership could add roughly $4.5 billion per quarter in revenue by late 2026 and boost earnings by about $1.30 a share.

Traders went bananas.

How bananas?

Try a 65,000% increase in some AMD near-dated calls according to the Kobeissi Letter which posted this on Twitter yesterday.

I can’t wait to see what happens next!

AMD CEO Lisa Su says critics are “thinking too small”, btw.

I agree.

The game is still early innings and my assessment on CNBC several years ago about AI being the largest investing theme in human history continues to play out. (Watch)