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Another lesson learned the hard way

Aug 16, 2022

Good morning!

‍The markets are giving up some ground today and split as I type. Makes sense, especially if inflation has really peaked.

Here’s my playbook.

Walmart sticks to forecast after beating expectations

Millions of investors panicked when Walmart warned a few weeks back but I told you that it was more than likely pre-emptive spin management. A “beat” wouldn’t be hard now that the bar was so low, I said.

Turns out I was pretty close to the mark.

The company announced this morning. And voila, it’s sticking with the previously released second-half forecast that shook so many people a few weeks back. And, not coincidentally, it also beat earnings expectations after announcing that bigger discounting was creating demand.

Not a big surprise: The stock is up in pre-market trading as I type. There is no doubt in my mind that it would have been down significantly had the company not “pre-announced.”

As much as I like Walmart, I prefer another retailer because it doesn’t have any of the challenges Walmart does. Shares are up 25.85% since I recommended it in One Bar Ahead™, my investment research journal, versus a -3.29% drop from the S&P 500 over the same time frame. Inflation or not, recession or not, there’s still plenty of upside potential ahead! (Get the stock)

Jamie Dimon blasts the “thick skulls”

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon isn’t one to mince words. Why can’t our leaders get it through their “thick skulls” that boosting natural gas production in this country does not equate to being against climate change. (Read)

He’s right.

JPM is still the best banking stock, BTW.

Crypto: another lesson the hard way

It’s sadly an all-too-common tale as of late.

Voyager Digital customers – all 3.5 million of ‘em - are up a creek without a proverbial paddle. Some users were supposed to have access to $270 million Voyager held with Metropolitan Commercial Bank, but that doesn’t appear to be happening.

Now they’re scrambling. Voyager Digital promised double digit annual returns to customers who “parked” their crypto tokens with the company. Then made a huge splash as crypto boomed by inking deals with the Dallas Mavericks, Tampa Bay tight end Rob Gronkowski, the National Women’s Soccer League and more. Mark Cuban is already being sued for promoting Voyager, according to a report from CBS Pittsburgh.

Can’t squeeze blood from a turnip. The company filed for bankruptcy after suspending all trading and activity when a cascading series of loan defaults, tanking prices and rate hikes clobbered the industry.

Depositors are learning the hard way. Unsecured means unsecured. Period.

WeBack! Adam Neumann’s at it again

The expression “selling ice to Eskimos” comes to mind.

Adam Neumann who blew up WeWork and lost $11 billion of investors’ money has apparently raised VC funding for a new start-up that values his new gig – Flow - at $1 billion before it launches … in 2023!

We’ve heard this story before. And, frankly, it’s as unintelligible as the first time around. Neumann’s touting a residential real estate service that helps smaller operators connect with larger groups “like smaller hotels utilizing help of larger chains.”

Investor Beware. The WeWork blowup was so bad that Silicon Valley and Wall Street investors paid Neumann $1 billion just to leave the company and that was after he destroyed it, mind you!

Fanciful thinking or just fancy footwork. Venture capitalist Marc Andreesen who evidently can’t get enough of Neuman having bankrolled this 2nd round of shenanigans said, “we love seeing repeat-founders build on past successes by growing from lessons learned.”

Thought bubble: Successful and repeat-founder aren’t words I’d use in the same sentence when referring to Neumann who cost investors dearly the first time around.

Normal humans won’t stand a chance

I’ve been following the fusion of human/tech implants for years and hypothesized that hiring decisions, stock trading, doctoring, and lawyering would benefit.

My reasoning is simple. Implanted chips will give people superhuman capabilities.

I’m not the only one who thinks so even though the topic is not yet widely understood. This from the Law Society of England. (Read)

Normal humans won’t stand a chance.

Bottom Line

You don't need a lot of brains to win in the markets. Just nerves, patience, and determination.

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day!


PS: Don’t forget that the One Bar Ahead™ Master Class #3 (of 4) starts Wednesday at 5pm EST. Our topic this week is hedging and risk management. It’s easier than before, which is why I believe every investor can benefit!

Unfortunately, the class is available exclusively to members of the One Bar Ahead™ Family. However, there’s an easy fix if you want in. (Learn more)

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