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☕️ Apple gets dinged... again. Should you care? Nope.

May 02, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Here we go again.

After weeks of doom and gloom, the S&P 500 is headed for the longest winning streak in 20 years.

Let that sink in.

I told you a while back – and repeatedly – that anybody who thought they were being smart by going to the sidelines would likely come to regret that move.

Seems I might’a been on to something.

Repeat after me…

You must be in to win… if you want to win.

The S&P 500 has returned 17.21% since putting in lows on April 7th. Many of the stocks we talk about regularly have done dramatically better which is, of course, why we focus on ‘em.

That’s beside the point, though.

Keith’s Investing Tip: People want to blame politics, the markets, Martians and a dozen other things for sub-par results but the answer to their problems is staring back at ‘em in the mirror every morning. Get that person under control and the rest is easy… er.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Apple gets dinged... again. Should you care? Nope.

Jeffries slapped an underperform on Apple (🎯 tariffs, they say). Rosenblatt taps out to neutral from buy, calling it a “well-run” company with “muted” growth. 🤦‍♂️

I love these guys—firmly in command of the obvious and seemingly clueless about the future.

Wall Street analysts live and die every 90 days.

Apple’s returned +33.22%, +194.65%, and +617.66% over the past 3, 5, and 10 years. Not too shabby for a "muted" company with limited prospects. Sigh.

Q2 revenue came in at $95.4B, beating expectations, with EPS of $1.65 — another March-quarter record. (Read)

iPhone sales topped $46.8B, China sales edged out expectations, and the company continued doing what it does best: minting cash and returning it.

Apple generated $24B in operating cash flow, returned $29B to shareholders, hiked its dividend by 4%, and greenlit a fresh $100B share buyback plan.

But the real tell?

Services revenue hit an all-time high, reinforcing Apple’s push toward high-margin, recurring income that keeps users locked into its ecosystem — not just for hardware, but for everything else wrapped around it.

Hardware brings ‘em in.

Services keep ‘em spending.

My take: AAPL hits new all-time highs within 24 months. Perhaps sooner.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Wall Street has the attention span of a gnat – and if you’re a trader, fine. Investors need to think differently.

2 – Crude reality check: Chevron’s still a beast

Chevron just posted a 30% drop in profit, missed on revenue, and is pulling back buybacks — now guiding $2.5B to $3B for Q2, down from $3.9B in Q1. (Read)

The market didn’t like that. Shares dipped more than 2% as traders saw soft oil prices, rising costs, and weaker refining margins as a sign to head for the exits.

Here’s the thing...

The market’s once again acting like Chevron is going extinct. That it’s just another old-line energy stock getting steamrolled by tariffs, OPEC+ output, and the transition to renewables.

I’m not sure we’re looking at the same company.

Chevron is still pumping out 3.35 million barrels a day, generating billions in free cash flow, and managing capital with discipline. This quarter’s pain was largely cyclical — not structural.

The energy demand story is far from over, and “dinosaur juice” like it or not, still fuels the global economy.

Keith’s Investing Tip: When a world-class company like Chevron gets priced like it’s disappearing, it’s often exactly when you want to start paying attention. Especially if you're buying with a long-term mindset and an eye on yield, cash flow, and geopolitical leverage.

3 – Buffett Weekend Hype: thanks, I’m good

The Oracle of Omaha holds court this weekend and the world is going to undoubtedly fawn over every last thing he says. (Read)

Me? Not so much.

Don’t get me wrong — Buffett’s a legend. But worshipping at the altar of value investing like it’s 1995 misses the mark in today’s market.

The world has changed as have markets. Speed, scalability, liquidity and innovation now drive returns… not just balance sheet bargains and moats carved in stone.

Buffett buys what he understands — and that’s fine.

But if YOU understand AI, energy shifts, defense modernization, or decentralized computing… I submit there’s a much bigger and more profitable game afoot.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Respect the past, but don’t live in it. The next 20 years won’t look like the last 20 — and your portfolio shouldn’t either.

4 – Amazon, still not for me

Amazon also reported earnings (Read):

Revenue: $155.7B (+9% YoY), beating expectations
EPS: $1.59 vs. $0.98 in Q1 2024 (+62%)
Net income: $17.1B vs. $10.4B last year
Operating income: $18.4B vs. $15.3B last year
Free cash flow (TTM): Down to $25.9B from $50.1B

There was a time when Amazon defined the future of cloud and commerce.

These days, it’s reacting to it.

“Me, too” seems to be the managerial strategy. And judging by how many customers are still wondering where their deliveries went, Amazon might want to shift its focus from smart assistants to smart logistics. Not to mention, our dog is still smarter than Alexa. 🤦‍♂️

I’ll continue to avoid Amazon when other better run, more loved businesses are out there.

One of my faves, for example, has returned 160.11% over the past 5 years — more than double Amazon’s 63.54%. And lest you think I’m cherry picking here, the S&P 500 kicked Amazon’s asteroids, too and returned 99.57%. Just sayin’…

5 – Issue Friday: New research and a new recommendation

It’s Issue Friday, and that means two things:

(a) I’m fired up to share my latest research with the One Bar Ahead® Family, and
(b) a new recommendation in the May edition of One Bar Ahead® drops later today—so keep an eye on your inbox if you’re an OBAer.

This month, we’re reintroducing an old name – the ticker tourists have been scared out, there are new deals left and right and the science is advancing rapidly. I’m suggesting a “re” buy with the expectation that it could 5X in 5 years.

The situation reminds me very much of Palantir early days.

There’s also a high-probability strategy deep dive, the portfolio review and a look at what the latest research says about sharpening your focus, mindshare and mental acuity using a supplement I’ve recently learned about.

If you’re already confident in your strategy and seeing results you love, that’s fantastic. But if you’re looking for clarity, direction, and a global community of serious, like-minded investors, I’d be honored to welcome you to the OBA Family. As always, I’m here if you need me.