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Betting on growth and these stocks is key

Oct 19, 2021

Good morning!

The markets have been trying to answer a very simple question in recent weeks … whether to bet on inflation or growth? I am with growth every time because that’s how you beat inflation. Big tech, particularly.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – If you can’t beat ‘em, you don’t have to join ‘em

In another move related to Dislocation - one of the key “5 D’s” we follow in One Bar Ahead™ - American Express will let employees work from wherever the heck they want for one month a year. The new hybrid work model we’ve been talking about from the beginning of Covid is very, very real.

I’m in … or out and about as the case may be.

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2 – Vaccine cocktails can boost protection

The biggies could have a nice pop here as reports mount that the FDA is set to approve so-called “mix and match” Covid vaccine boosters this week. No word on who makes the best “cocktail” yet though.

My choice remains Pfizer (PFE) but Moderna (MNRA) and BioNTech (BNTX) are waking up pre-market as I type.

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3 – Robinhood could be sent back to the forest empty-handed

Surprise, surprise. The SEC now says there could be a problem with brokers who have gamified investing to encourage more trading which, of course, earns ‘em money. We’ve talked about this extensively, so I won’t repeat all that today; suffice it to say this is a welcome development but one that stops short of real actionable consequences for the moment.

I’d love to short $HOOD but that’s too risky IMHO because Wall Street will fight back if the SEC takes things to the next level.

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4 – Full of bull?

JPMorgan is out with a report saying that Apple’s results will beat expectations but that guidance will disappoint when it posts results on the 28th. Seems a little too convenient to me … my guess is that the report coming out now isn’t a coincidence but rather an attempt to scare the weak money into selling so … drum roll please … JPM’s traders and clients can buy.

Like it or not, this is how the game is really played at the highest levels.

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5 – You’re still better buying bitcoin than a futures fund IMHO

The Bitcoin-linked ETF $BITO debuts today and many investors are wondering if they should buy it. The thinking is that it’ll give individual investors crypto exposure without having to deal with pesky digital wallets or energy-intensive mining machines that could otherwise power a nuclear reactor.

Most investors are probably better off buying bitcoin directly for three reasons: 1) futures can be expensive because of the costs associated with management and “rolling”; 2) futures come with contango and backwardation, two concepts that are brain benders even for the pros; and 3) nobody knows how and why bitcoin actually moves save possibly Elon Musk Tweets, the Winklevoss Twins and George Soros.

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Real-time trade ideas via text, not hypotheticals based on some cockamamie secret strategy cooked up in the middle of a medieval dungeon after the fact. It’s the educational resource you’ve been asking for and it’s finally available exclusively to the One Bar Ahead™ Family. Click on the link in yesterday’s update to sign up if you’re interested!

Bottom Line

My grandfather had a sign on his office wall near the door, positioned in such a way that everybody leaving his desk would see it:

There are 3 kinds of people in the world

  1. Those who make things happen
  2. Those who watch things happen
  3. Those who wonder WT_ just happened

Which one are you today?

Which one will you be tomorrow?

Today that very same sign hangs in my office and is still every bit as motivating.

Now, as always, let’s MAKE it a great day!


Keith :-)

Straight to your inbox from Keith himself!

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