☕️ Big Tech earnings: place your bets, plus Robinhood

Howdy! 👋 

Futures are edging lower this morning ahead of the Fed and tech earnings. 

• We’ve talked about Team Powell many times over and, chances are, you know what I think he’s going to serve up… a big, fat nothing burger.  
• Oil is on another run… that, too we’ve talked about. 
• And CNBC is reporting that a big gold bear has just shown up in gold… which is something I have repeatedly said was coming. 

So I won’t waste your time with any of those things today. 

What you want to focus on is which specific stocks can power through whatever happens next. 

It’s a short list. 

Patience and discipline are the most undervalued assets in the market today imho. 

Here’s my playbook.  

1 – AI, spending and what’s next  

I sat down for a wonderful conversation with my good friend and colleague, the super-savvy and aptly named Scott "the Cow Guy" Shellady because of the colorful old school pit jackets he wears on air.  

Scott wanted my take on big tech earnings, the AI job displacement debate, and whether America's spending problem — from consumers all the way up to Congress — is finally coming home to roost. (Watch) 

There IS a silver lining and it’s one that most don’t see coming. 

Speaking of which... 

2 – Big Tech earnings: place your bets 

Meta. Microsoft. Apple. Amazon. Alphabet. They're all reporting this week. 

If you've been paying attention — and I suspect you have — you already know what you own and why. If you don't, that's not an earnings problem. That's a homework problem. 

Here's my take. 

The market is going to split right down the middle. Companies with a clear, clean path to monetizing AI — where the revenue is real, the margins are expanding, and the story doesn't require a leap of faith — are going to get rewarded. 

The ones still promising that the profits are just around the corner? Let’s just say that the market has been nodding politely at that story for two years now, and patience is visibly thinning. 

Watch how brutally the street punishes any hint of "we're investing heavily for future returns."  

We've heard that before and we know how it ends. 

Trade Idea: ATM straddles on all the big names. I'm not trying to guess which way they move — I'm betting they move. Volatility is the play here, not price. When uncertainty is this high and expectations are this spread out, the premium is worth it. 

And if you're an investor, chances are good that you already know what you own and why you own it. Stay the course, keep your emotions out of the cockpit, and let the earnings come to you. 

If you don’t know how to do that or lack the confidence to do that, I’ll be here along with thousands of other OBAers if that’s helpful. I’ve got a new research recommendation, btw, out this Friday – a beaten down choice with what I think is real value on offer. 

Keith's Investing Tip: Volatility isn't the enemy — it's the opportunity. The only question is whether you're positioned to take advantage of it or just along for the ride. 

3 – Buying cheap is one of the most expensive mistakes you can make 

I hear it time and again… “Keith, the markets are too expensive.” “XYZ is completely overvalued.” And so on. 

My response? 

Good luck with that. 

Buying great companies never goes out of style for one simple reason. 

The best stocks are always expensive and investors who buy ‘em tend to be very well rewarded for doing so. 

Take a look. 

4 – Robinhood: free trades, expensive lessons 

Robinhood shares cratered more than 10% this morning after the company badly missed first-quarter estimates. (Read) 

Transaction revenue came in at $623 million against expectations of $728 million. Crypto revenue?… Try down 47% year-over-year to $134 million. 

Like this is a surprise??!! 

Robinhood built its entire brand on getting retail investors excited – first with "free" trades that were never actually free – something we’ve talked about so many times - then strapped itself to the crypto rocket. 

Here's the thing. 

Bitcoin is off 30%-plus in six months, and the crypto crew who thought it was “easy money” are now finding out the hard way that it isn’t. Many have left the game entirely because they can’t hack it or simply got flambéed by Wall Street’s bigger, more liquid go-fast crew (something else I told you repeatedly would be inevitable). 

So now what? 

Schwab, E*TRADE, and crypto-native exchanges are all fighting for the same shrinking pool of retail volume, which means that Robinhood is going to have to a) reinvent itself again or b) stop with the gamification of trading and get serious. 

And the problem? 

History suggests that you don’t reinvent a company between earnings calls. 

Since Robinhood's all-time high last October, HOOD is down roughly 50%. Meanwhile one of my faves – a massive, some say lumbering dinosaur that serious investors supposedly avoid – is up about 4% over the same stretch and has quietly paid dividends the whole time. 

Exciting vs. boring. -50% vs. +4%. 

You tell me which one belongs in your portfolio. 

I know which one belongs in mine. 

And, as always, I’ll be here if you need me or would like some help figuring out what’s what. 

5 – Hiding in plain sight: Japan's labor crisis just became a semiconductor gold rush 

Japan is famous for its technological ingenuity, but here's the reason most people miss. 

They have to be. 

Nearly 30% of Japan's population is already 65 or older — the median age is 50.2 years — making it the oldest society on earth. Morgan Stanley estimates the Japanese labor force could shrink from roughly 69 million workers today to around 49 million by 2050.   

I've spent at least part of every year in Japan for nearly 35 years, and I've watched this transformation happen in real time.  

The villages to my north are now quiet in a way that's hard to describe — no children, no young families, just the slow hum of a society growing older.  

And the streets that used to be full of American tourists?  

They're still packed — but the faces have changed. South Koreans now lead all visitors at 8.8 million, followed by Chinese at 7 million and Taiwanese at 6 million. Americans, once a dominant presence, now rank a distant fourth at 2.7 million according to various sources.  

Something has to give. 

Enter the robots. 

Japan Airlines and GMO AI & Robotics are launching the country's first humanoid robot demonstration experiment at Haneda Airport, starting in May 2026. The robots — standing about 130 cm tall and built for short task rotations — are designed to move baggage carts, assist with cargo loading, and transport luggage across tarmac zones.  

Here's the part that should make every investor sit up straight: the robots are made by Unitree, a robotics firm based in Hangzhou, China.  

Hmmm. 🤔 

Japan is solving its labor crisis… with Chinese robots.  

Let that marinate for a second. 

The real story here isn't whether JAL's bags arrive on time, or even whether humanoid robots eventually take over airport ground crews worldwide — though both are worth watching. 

The real story is what's inside every single one of these machines. 

AI this capable doesn't run on good intentions but on advanced semiconductors doing billions of calculations a second to navigate a tarmac, recognize a bag, and decide when to yield to a 747.  

That's where I'd want to be as an investor and encourage you to be, too. 

The gold rush is already underway, but most investors are still watching the luggage. 

Keith's Investing Tip: When a brand-new industry starts solving century-old problems, the real money usually isn't in the solution — it's in what powers it. 

Bottom Line 

The most important investment skill you can learn today is to calculate the future cost of decisions you make today. 

As always, MAKE it a great day. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀