☕ Is it too late to buy Bitcoin? And a new trade idea

Howdy! 👋 

All three indices are in the red as I type this morning after yesterday’s records. And predictably, the news-mongers are reporting that it’s tariff tantrums again. 

Not entirely true. 

The US 10YR treasury yield is higher which means the cost of borrowing money – the vigorish – just went up so the go-fast crowd that is usually leveraged up to their eyeballs as a way of maximizing profits is selling to get under margin/leverage thresholds. 

Don’t let it faze you. 

Stay focused. 

People think you make your money in bull markets, but the real profits get made when the bears come out to play. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Devin wants a word with you if you don’t think this’ll boost profits 

It’s a fine line which is why those who constantly push for higher wages best be careful what they wish for. 

Goldman Sachs is about to hire Devin, an AI coder who can crank out software faster than his human counterparts can even type specs. (Read) Other companies are making similar moves, the pace of which is accelerating. 

To a point I have made many times over, AI will radically redefine what it means to work, what work looks like and, of course, how it gets done. 

Scary? 

No doubt, but only if you are stuck in your ways and unwilling to learn how to work with AI. 

Loads of people think it will replace ‘em but I don’t see it that way. 

Some people, sure. 

But those who are willing to learn, who have a trade, who are creative, who know what questions to ask and how to get answers that are actually valuable… no way. 

Learning to work with AI is going to be very profitable for those who do. 

Invest in… 

• Chip makers 

• Data security 

• AI cognition 

• Education 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Disruption doesn’t ask for permission. It shows up, takes a seat, and rewrites the rules before most even realize the game has changed.  

My favorite bank is already well ahead of this curve and already having great success with AI. It’s not Goldman, btw. I’m betting revenue and profits accelerate dramatically. 

I trust you’re thinking along similar lines and investing accordingly. If not, Devin might have a thing or two to say about why you should. 

2 – Intel’s great escape: ditching RealSense to chase AI table scraps 

Intel’s tossing its AI robotics unit RealSense out the door with a shiny $50 million consolation prize. (Read)  

The 3D vision and robotics automation tech, now a standalone company propped up by Intel Capital and MediaTek Innovation Fund, gets Nadav Orbach—Intel’s resident “disruptive innovation” guru—as its new CEO. 

Orbach’s big pitch?  

“The time for physical AI is now,” he declares, as if he’s cracked some cereal box decoder ring code on robotics’ sudden popularity. Whoopie… 🤦‍ 

MyPOV is pretty blunt. 

Intel’s been napping through the AI revolution, hitting snooze on cellular, mobile, and every other tech wave for a decade. Now, it’s yeeting RealSense into the wild, hoping someone else can make it relevant while Intel scrambles to stay afloat. 

Once king of the semiconductors and a company that could seemingly do no wrong, Intel’s now playing breakup artist and carving itself up while Nvidia prints cash, Tesla’s robot army marches on, and other companies press forward at considerably faster pace including AMD, TSM and ARM just to name a few. 

The positioning is a dead giveaway and another reason to look carefully at the C-Suite when you’re investing. Jensen Huang’s calling robotics Nvidia’s next goldmine while Intel’s effectively saying “Here, take this unit and good luck!”  

In Intel’s defense, newly seated CEO Lip-Bu Tan gets it, and he told employees as much earlier this week saying, “We [Intel] are not one of the world’s top ten semiconductor companies.” 

Then he gave credit to AMD and Nvidia among others for aggressively addressing the AI market [the way Intel should have]. 

That had to have hurt! 

I really feel for anybody still working there.  

Trade Idea Part 2: I laid out a trade idea on July 2nd and my price points still stand. Shares are down as I type. Hmmm. (See #5). 

3 – Bitcoin to $118,000, stay frosty 

Okay sports fans. 

Institutions are apparently piling into Bitcoin ETFs which reportedly experienced their biggest inflows all year. (Read) 

Prices have now tapped $118,000. 

Should you buy? 

Personally, I’m sticking with digital clearing because that fits my view of where the world is going better and how I think digital currency will ultimately play out. It’s not perfect but it works for me. 

Loads of people are clearly loading up on bitcoin, and I celebrate everyone who’s on board. 

Just be careful. 

Please. 

1. Shorts are getting plowed under right now because the run higher has resulted in ~ $650 - $700M in short liquidations. If you’re not familiar with how this works, rising prices cause traders using leverage who are short bitcoin to buy back their positions which, in turn, pushes prices higher and causes even more positions to be liquidated. This is also called a “short-burn” in case you’re wondering – because that’s what traders on the wrong side of the move feel like is happening to their accounts. 
2. Institutions that once “hated” bitcoin are now embracing it. People think that’s a good thing but what it really tells you is that the big money has figured out how to skin the little guys. ETFs are a racket and a half and institutions make bank by inducing you to own ‘em. 
3. The potential for manipulation is skyrocketing. It doesn’t matter if you’re talking bitcoin or stocks, any time there is a large concentration of ownership and lots of smaller players, you’re just begging to get smacked around. Be disciplined or be in it for the long haul. 

Should you buy? 

Personally, I’m sticking with digital clearing because that fits my view of where the world is going better and how I think digital currency will ultimately play out. It’s not perfect but it works for me. Plus, I get a nice, juicy dividend, too. 😀💯 

4 - Levi’s: from gold rush to garment glut 

Levi’s once symbolized grit, sweat, and the American dream. 

Now?  

They're busy pricing in tariffs. (Read) 

The company just raised guidance despite looming 30% tariffs on China and 10% everywhere else. CEO Michelle Gass says they’re managing the hit through fewer promos, premium pricing, and strong demand. 

No question, people are still willing to pay up for denim, but the company is clinging to margins while consumers swap rivets for elastic waistbands. 

Jeans were once worn by people who built the future. Today, they’re a legacy brand on borrowed time. 

Putskies. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Strength isn’t stitched into the fabric you wear. It’s built into the choices you make every single day. I trust your portfolio reflects that the way the OBA Model Portfolio does. If not, I respectfully submit that you’ve got some homework!  

Meanwhile… 

Trade Idea: Sometimes collecting something is worth more than the stock of the companies that make whatever you fancy. Examples include vintage Ferraris, Jaguars, whisky, wine and, yep, Levis. A pair from the late 1880s found in a mine sold a few years ago for $87,400 in New Mexico if memory services… which reminds me of a time I was hiking in the Uinta Mountains and came across an old pair in an ancient miners’ cabin from about that era. I left ‘em where they were because that was the right thing to do at the time; but man, in retrospect, what those would be worth today! 🤦‍ 

5 – America’s EV truck gap: where’s our BYD? 

According to Reuters, China sold 47,000 electric heavy-duty trucks during the 1st half of 2025. 

The US? 

Not thousand. 

Total. 

Ignore what’s happening at your own risk. 

• Electric heavy truck sales in China skyrocketed 175% year-on-year to 76,100 in H1 2025, claiming 25% of the market. Subsidies and a rapid charger rollout are killing diesel, with a 6.3% drop in consumption forecast for 2025. 

• China’s transport sector, guzzling two-thirds of its diesel, is projected to use 40% less by 2030, cutting total diesel use by a quarter from 2024 levels.  

• America’s still rolling coal, but China’s building chargers faster than we build Starbucks. 

My point... if we don’t shift gears - pun absolutely intended - there's a very good chance the US will be importing Chinese trucks instead of making its own. Europe, Africa, the Middle East and South America almost certainly. 

You know who – yep, him – is already well ahead of the curve though. And if you don't know who him is, respectfully, you're not paying attention. 

So are smart investors. 

Robotaxis are just a warmup for the big show. 

Keith's Investing Tip: When the road forks between the future and excuses, bet on the one already shipping product. 

**OBAers: This is yet another reason why I insist we own a balanced 50/50 split between the two top players in this lane. Boy, I'm filled with puns today. 🤣 

Bottom Line  

If you’re not investing in the best, you are gonna get left with the rest. 

No two ways about it. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and finish the week strong. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀