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☕️ Blindly copying Warren Buffett is like wearing Michael Jordan’s shoes and expecting to dunk from the free throw line

Aug 15, 2025

Howdy! 👋

It’s Friyay - and not a moment too soon imho.

The S&P 500 and the Dow have both now hit record highs and remain on track for big weekly gains despite having pulled back a skosh as I type in the early going.

Both the S&P 500 and the Snazzy Nazzy (Nasdaq) have tacked on 1% for the week, btw.

Proves my point yet again.

Be in to win… or you won’t… win.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Buffett’s in, should you be? $UNH

Berkshire just disclosed that it purchased 5M shares of UnitedHealth (~$1.6B) last quarter, and the stock promptly ripped higher. (Read)

But here’s the real “tell” – a poker expression meaning a subtle clue that reveals what’s really going on.

No confidential treatment request.

This means that Unka Warren & Co probably finished loading the boat in July and August when UNH was flat out on the mat.

You may be wondering why on earth he’d pile into a company that’s pulled guidance, missed earnings, is watching margins get steamrolled, and has a political target on its back?

Short answer.

For the same reason I encourage you to do the same thing with many of the quality names we talk about regularly – but not UNH which I have encouraged you to avoid repeatedly because it’s a train wreck.

Buffett says, “Be greedy when others are fearful”.

My version isn’t nearly as eloquent.

But, hey… I’m a simple guy.

The best time to buy is when everybody else can’t sell fast enough.

Should you buy United Health?

That’s a very different question.

Scads of investors think that they should buy “just because Buffett did” but that’s a very slippery slope.

In fact, imitating Unka Warren can be very dangerous for your money.

Buffett’s buys work for Buffett’s/Berkshire’s portfolio – meaning his time horizon, his cash flow, his risk tolerance, his deal access. Not yours.

I’m not one to mince words so I won’t.

Blindly copying Buffett in a situation like this one is like wearing basketball legend Micheal Jordans shoes and expecting to dunk from the free throw line.

Play the game but don’t be stupid about it.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Investing is not a competition so don’t pretend for a minute that you’re Buffett, unless of course, you are. 🤔

2 – Betting on Intel after a 25.90% pop?

Well, that didn’t take long.

Days after U.S. President Donald Trump blasted Intel’s CEO Lip-Bu Tan over alleged ties to China, Bloomberg now says the administration might take a stake in the company to bolster its Ohio chip hub. (Read)

I hate to say I told you so, but somebody around here mighta been on to something.

In fact, I wrote to you about it on August 7th and suggested exactly this possibility. (See #3).

Intel shares have returned 25.90% since the 7th while the S&P 500 has returned 1.85%. And don’t even get me started on the call options.

Boy o boy, I do LOVE the markets! 💯

Keith’s Investing Tip: There are moments in time when betting “against” a Zombie makes sense. Learn how to identify ‘em; that way you can get your money there first and be ahead of the game. If you’d like some help or additional insight, I’ll be here.

3 – Zervos says what everybody is thinking (about the Fed)

“I think it would be an incredible benefit to have more market-savvy, more market competent people involved in the monetary policy decision.”

David Zervos, Jefferies Chief Market Strategist and Fed Chair Candidate

Um, yeah.

Like letting surgeons hold the scalpel or pilots fly the plane.

What a concept!!

I’ve made a similar argument for years – decades even – usually to folks who respond with finger-wagging and a look that says, oh, you sweet simple, man.”

Truth of the matter is that the Fed doesn’t need more academic theorists who’ve never met a payroll; it needs people who’ve actually been in the trenches, risked capital, and eaten what they killed.

Until then, we’re letting a backseat driver steer the car… and wondering why we keep ending up in a ditch.

Yeesh – and I’ll just grab my hat and let myself out now.

Evidently, I’ve had enough coffee given the snark meter reading today. 🤦‍

4 - AI moves in, people move out

Landlords aren’t just automating rent checks anymore. AI is now handling leasing calls, maintenance requests, tenant screening, and even the mind-numbing work of underwriting deals — all jobs that used to keep entire teams of property managers busy. (Read)

The winners?

Big operators and REITs cutting costs, moving faster, and leaving smaller landlords — still shuffling paper and faxing leases — in the dust.

In a $4T rental market, the gap between those who get on board and those who don’t is about to go from “noticeable” to “game over.”

Mark my words on CNBC a while back and long before anybody else voiced that thought, AI will go down as the biggest investing theme in recorded human history — a multi-trillion-dollar play still in its early innings.

The trick, of course, is separating scalable, proven applications from overhyped, cash-burning science projects.

As always, I’ve got a few ideas and, fortunately, many of ‘em are already paying off in spades according to the One Bar Ahead® Family who tell me as much.

Keith’s Investing Tip: The sooner you understand how to find real businesses and avoid the ones selling PowerPoint decks and new concepts, the sooner your portfolio can get on track. Especially when it comes to AI.

5 – All eyes on Alaska

U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will sit down at Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage, Alaska a few hours from now.

The post-chat presser will be one of the most watched – and most critical – events in modern history.

Their working session starts at 11:30 local time or 1530 EST, a half hour before the close of trading but the joint PR won’t start until a few hours later and after U.S. markets are closed.

I believe that is a very deliberate choice given the stakes at hand.

The media is trying to make headlines by endlessly analyzing nuances that otherwise don’t apply. Not for nothing, so are the pontificators who are, of course, out in force.

Keep it stupid simple.

Both parties wouldn’t be there if they didn’t want a solution, a remark I made earlier this week to Gerri Willis on FBN and during an interview with my friend and colleague, the super sharp Scott “the Cow Guy” Shellady on RFDTV. (Watch)