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☕️ Buy IBM even though it’s flirting with all-time highs?

Jul 08, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Hope your day’s off to a great start.

Markets are a touch green in the wee hours as I type.

To be expected.

Wall Street almost always plays ping-pong between earnings seasons.

It's classic algo nonsense.

Don’t get distracted.

Stick with world-class stocks — the kind we talk about frequently.

Play offense because - ta da - that's how you actually win.

Ironic isn't it.

Those who cower in fear constantly wonder why they never achieve the results they’re after when the answer’s usually staring back at 'em in the mirror every morning.

That’s always the challenge, though.

Doing the work, trusting the plan, and taking the swing — especially when it feels easier or safer to do nothing.

Social scientists say this is what separates the world’s most successful people from everyone else.

I agree.

The ability to act in the face of uncertainty while constantly moving towards your goals is the mark of a disciplined mind and a prepared investor.

They say, "no guts, no glory" ... to which I add... but also “no gains.”

Anyway, you know what you've got to do.

Set goals.
Have a plan.
Execute.

Speaking of which, our annual conference — Shindig '25 — is just two weeks out, and I’ve got to laser in to make sure everything goes off without a hitch.

Here's my playbook - albeit an abbreviated one!

1 - Big traders know two things that most investors don't

The big money knows that the public fears tariffs and if they play the headlines to maximum effect, that's an excuse to separate the weak from their money.

Don't give 'em the satisfaction.

Owning great stocks is the path to great returns over time.

Why?

Doing so gives you the freedom, the confidence, and the incentive to lean in on weakness while others run away.

Tariff Tantrums have been a great excuse to buy calls or even one of the few rare instances where leveraged upside trades make sense since April. I could even make the case that countries with the most to lose could be the most to gain with plain ol' ETFs, too. Both Korea and Japan come to mind, specifically for example.

Keith’s Investing Tip: The sooner you start thinking like a shark, the less you’ll feel like a minnow.

2 – Yawn, Dorsey launches a WhatsApp messaging rival

This is an "n+1" move — i.e. another redundant play in an already saturated space. Not something new. (Read)

There's no real game here imho, unless there's a killer differentiator we don't know about.

Just Jack being Jack.

3 - What's Zuck cooking up?

Now Apple's top AI exec is apparently leaving for Zuck's new super AI A-Team. (Read)

If my tally is correct, that's at least 15 senior executives who have jumped ship from Google, OpenAI, Apple and others within the past 45 days or so.

Meta to $1,000 seems baked in but I've got to wonder what El Zucko is cooking up.

Great to see he’s still slinging it, though.

Leaps or even the stock itself could be a nice way to harness what’s happening. 🤔

4 - Worse than shoplifting, putskies!

It's a balancing act.

Protect your inventory or your profits.

Washington Post columnist Matt Bai is reporting that CVS's anti-theft efforts are costing the company more than shoplifting. (Read)

I think he's on to something.

The last thing shoppers want to do is hang around if they've got to get a clerk to open a glass case then stand there while they make up their minds about buying something or other.

I can't believe this is going to be good for earnings.

Customer frustration creates a strong disincentive to shop at stores that prioritize shrink protection over shopper experience — especially for low-value, high-need social items like deodorant, toothpaste, or formula - all of which are increasingly easy to order online with same-day delivery, often cheaper and without the friction of locked cases or long waits.

Foot traffic drops, cart size shrinks, and margins get squeezed from both ends.

Putskies, short or simply avoid.

5 - Buy IBM at all-time highs?

IBM is rolling out new chips called Power11 in a move that's designed to take on offerings from Intel and AMD that have been popular in specialized sectors including financial services, healthcare and manufacturing where there's still plenty of juice needed, but not necessarily the massive computational horsepower of an Nvidia chipset. (Read)

What intrigues me is that they're billed as the most cost-effective alternative as part of an integrated package that includes software and hardware.

I'm also hearing that the offer is intended to bolster reliability and security, two of the major threats and themes we've been following as part of Digitalization, the largest of the trillion-dollar 5Ds I highlight in One Bar Ahead®.

IBM's Tom McPherson says he doesn't want to compete with Nvidia - which I think is smart - but focus on simplifying AI deployment for inference, meaning the process of putting AI systems to work to speed up business tasks.

The stock is flirting with all-time highs so I wouldn't be in a rush to buy shares, but I would consider adding or a few well-placed LowBall orders around $250 if the markets want to serve up that opportunity. To be fair, it may not.

Keith's Investing Tip: Many investors rush into stocks because they let FOMO get the better of 'em. Using the right tactics can dramatically improve your odds of success and your profit potential.

If you've got this covered, fabulous. If not and you'd like some help in this department, you may find One Bar Ahead® of interest. I'll be here if you need me.