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☕ Buy Nvidia before or after earnings?

Nov 19, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Could today be the day the selling stops?

Maybe.

All three indices are in the green as I type ahead of Nvidia’s earnings.

To be fair, I have no idea if the markets will finish that way.

I’ll take it anyway.

History shows very clearly that it’s better to be investing in imperfect markets than waiting to invest in “perfect” markets.

Every great running of the bulls inevitably starts when people fear the bears.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Nvidia’s big day

Earnings drop after the close, and Unka Jensen will once again take the stage to tell the world where AI is headed next. You can follow along here.

Wall Street is expecting blockbuster numbers, but the real action will be in the guidance and, specifically the footnotes.

Nvidia may have a jaw-dropping, gob-fobbing $500 billion in orders on the books.

Half. A. Trillion. Dollars.

I cannot recall any company ever reporting anything even remotely close — not Boeing with its ~$500B backlog, not Oracle with ~$450–$500B in remaining performance obligations.

Nvidia’s talking about single-year visibility spanning 2025–2026.

If true, that sets up an astonishing 2026 that most investors don’t yet recognize.

I think there’s an amazing case to be made that prices that seem prohibitively expensive today will be dirt cheap a few years from now.

History says don’t take your eye off the ball.

Nvidia has risen 7 of the past 9 post-earnings six-month periods … every gain double-digits.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Let the machines overreact. You don’t have to. Or need to.

Speaking of which…

2 – Michael Burry is apparently at it again

I can only shake my head.

His excellency, Big Shortimis Maximus – aka Michael Burry – is apparently at it again.

What to do?

You’ve got a choice to make.

To be fair, we don’t know if this is true or not, but let’s assume it is for the sake of discussion given Burry’s recent muckraking.

Do you place your bet on Burry or Palantir?

Burry is clearly a very sharp individual – I’ll give him that - but he’s made one call and a bunch that have never come true or failed to materialize in the decade and a half since.

Moreover, he chose to file his recent 13Fs under questionable timing and circumstances. Then, he closed his fund and deregistered for reasons that he has yet to disclose.

It wouldn’t be unreasonable for even casual observers to think something stinks. Not for nothing, but Andrew Left of Citron Research is facing criminal charges related to stock manipulation in March ’26 for what appears to be similar behavior to many.

Palantir, on the other hand, has an A+ list of customers, a proven track record of consistent excellence and a platform worth billions.

I’ll go with Palantir any day, every day.

You?

3 – Target’s new strategy: cross your fingers and mark everything down

I’ve told you very specifically to stay away from Target for years.

And again this past Monday urged caution. (Watch)

I might have been on to something yet again.

I hope you got the message.

Traffic is down, baskets are smaller, and customers are making fewer trips. It’s no wonder to my way of thinking Target posted another quarter of declining sales and cut the high end of its full-year earnings outlook. (Read)

Target’s incoming CEO says he’s “focused on getting back to growth,” but the numbers tell a tougher story.

Sales have been flat for four years, stores feel sloppier, and the very things that once set Target apart — style, service, merchandising — have lost their edge. Seems to me that slashing 3,000 food and household prices just to get people through the door is a sign of weakness, not a position of investable strength.

MyPOV: shoppers aren’t abandoning retail — they’re abandoning friction. If something feels too expensive, too messy, or too inconsistent, they’ll walk right past it.

Retailers with clarity, discipline, and operational excellence will keep winning (which is why I continue to recommend the very best to the One Bar Ahead® Family).

Anything else is a risk I don’t want in my portfolio and, what the heck, you probably don’t either.

Buy the best, ignore the rest!

4 – Meta walks, FTC trips over its own shoelaces (again)

Meta just beat the FTC in a major antitrust case — and that sound you hear is relief coming out of Menlo Park. (Read)

The judge flat-out ruled that Meta isn’t a monopoly in social networking anymore, which tells you everything you need to know about how fast the landscape has changed.

Ten years ago?

Maybe the FTC had a shot.

Instead, the judge basically said, “Nice try, but the world moved on.”

MyPOV: This buys Meta breathing room when it needs it most. Competition in video is brutal, user time is shifting fast, and the company has been spending heavily to keep up. Getting this case off their back removes a giant regulatory overhang.

I still don’t trust Zuck and likely never will, but that’s just me. I love the fact that plenty of people do, and I celebrate everyone who’s onboard.

Probably $1,000 a share… one of these days… some day.

Meanwhile, I’m perfectly content owning Meta via another choice in the Fund Folio, a retirement-friendly, steady-Eddie concept I created for the OBA Family at their request a few years ago.

5 – The best dividend “buy” is one you may not be thinking about

I’ve long urged you to stay away from consumer staples stocks for the simple reason that many have been a lot like a bug in search of a windshield this year.

One catches my attention, though.

A name I’ve never owned directly that I can recall but am now thinking I might like to.

Colgate-Palmolive.

Unlike other consumer staples companies that try to be everything to everyone, Colgate-Palmolive is tightly focused on oral hygiene.

And down -13.03% YTD.

It’s also a Dividend King – meaning that it’s increased its annual dividend payments for at least 50 consecutive years.

In a world of wannabes, that’s the real deal.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Big, boring and predictable stocks go a long way when it comes to building more wealth and keeping it!

Btw, I’ve got a list of stocks that are neither boring nor heck, not even halfway predictable… except when it comes to profit potential. If you’re covered, cool. If not and that’s of interest, I’ll be here.