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☕ Buy the dip, or something else?

Aug 01, 2025

Howdy! 👋

I laid out two very distinct scenarios in last Sunday’s short. (Watch)

A dip into earnings if traders wanted lower prices or
A run higher followed by a “rug pull” after otherwise great numbers

Now we know what’s what. 🤦‍

#2.

The news is already calling it another “tariff tantrum.”

Predictable.

It’s an opportunity.

Doesn’t matter if you’re a trader or an investor.

Markets don’t move in straight lines and never have.

You can almost set your watch to what happens:

Strong run-up
Brief pullback for whatever reason du jour
Traders overreact
Smart, successful investors stay the course

The noise today is just that — noise.

Moreover, it proves a point I make incessantly…

You’ve got to be in to win — if winning is what you actually want to do.

Just sayin.’

Oh yeah… and if you’re not willing to invest when the chips are down, you can’t expect to be ahead when they’re up.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – If you’re worried about tariffs, remember April

‘Nuff said.

The S&P 500 has returned 22.96% off April lows when everybody was running around like the sky was falling.

I told you right here during the worst of it to buy… and at a seminar I gave in Dallas that week… and during an appearance with the fabulous Charles Payne … to buy.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many aspiring investors want to be right, but the world’s most successful investors focus on being profitable. Take a look in the mirror right now and ask yourself who YOU really are. Then if you don’t like the answer, do something about it… like changing your habits, turning off the news, unsubscribing from the clickbait that makes you anxious. Ditch toxic people who cause you to worry. Then… drum roll please… start investing in optimism or trading like you mean it instead of playing the Vegas tables and griping when the dealer takes away your chips. We’re not here for the dental plan.

2 – “Paging Dr. Jerome Powell” – labor flatlined

JPow still thinks “we got this” when it comes to labor markets and stubbornly refused to lower rates.

Let’s review.

Non-Farm Payrolls for July at just 73K, with downward revisions for June down to 14K from 147K and for May down to 19K from 144K
Table A: Employed persons in July: -260K, Unemployed persons: +221K
July, unemployment increased for …uh… everybody

MyPOV is that JPow needs to be benched and the sooner the better.

I feel for the guy.

He is not stupid, but the Fed’s models are badly broken. I don’t know if this is worse or simply bad but he’s got scores of super smart people in the building who have very little if any experience with real money so they can’t make proactive decisions if they had to.

It’s not like this is new.

I’ve been harshly critical of the Fed for a long time.

Others, a lot smarter than me, too.

Heck even members of Powell’s own team like Fed Gov Christopher Waller – among others – have repeatedly counselled that the labour markets are not as strong as they appear and encourage Powell to do what he needs to do.

Cut the dang rates.

Moral of the story.

Trust the revisionist (data) history – not another dot plot and sure as heck not a Fed presser.

3 – Buy the dip…or something else?

Millions of investors are caught like deer in the headlights this morning after a rock-solid week of great earnings.

Is this the start of a larger pullback into Fall or a short-term, headline driven drop?
Should you buy or sell?

Depends on your personal risk tolerance, objectives and circumstances (which I don’t know).

Personally, I’m staying in the game and going shopping today if the red deepens.

Just for kicks – and to capitalize on any good news over the weekend like – oh, I dunno… trade deals – I may buy some calls (a bet that prices rise) on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

You?

Keith’s Investing Tip: The markets are the only store on earth where people fear a sale.

4 – Anybody doubting Apple’s AI ambitions better pay attention

I’ve heard no end of people lambasting Apple for the past few years when it comes to AI, iPhone sales and all the other “reasons” it’s falling behind. And me, too, for insisting that Apple is on track.

That’s water under the bridge.

CEO Tim Cook just laid out the biggest, greatest, most clearly defined roadmap I’ve ever seen, saying point blank that Apple views “AI as one of the most profound technologies of our lifetime.”

It’s visionary foreshadowing, a favourite Apple pastime for those who know how to read the tealeaves.

Steve Jobs was a master.

“The phone is the killer app” – Steve Jobs in 2005 two years before he dropped the iPhone in 2007.
“The most compelling reason for most people to buy a computer for the home will be to link it into a nationwide communications network.” – Steve Jobs in 1983, a year before the Mac’s 1984 launch.
“1,000 songs in your pocket” – Steve Jobs in 2003 in a Rolling Stones interview during which he acknowledged building iTunes which launched in 2001 and used to prep the ecosystem.
“I don’t want to have to use a keyboard. I want to talk to this as if it were a person.” – Steve Jobs in 2010 after acquiring Siri in reference to speech driven devices.

Apple has returned ~655% over the past decade and ~15,916% over the past 20 years while the S&P 500 has turned in ~197% and ~407% respectively.

Doubt Apple if you want.

I’m not.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Buying ETFs is great if that works for you but buying individual stocks can be a very different ballgame when you know how to play.

5 – Issue Friday, with a twist!

If you’re an OBAer, please keep an eye on your email.

The “mini” August issue of One Bar Ahead® comes out a few hours from now with a brief look at how stocks with “higher AI Materiality” are pulling away and a deeper dive into the math driving Tesla’s $20T trajectory. There’s also a brief portfolio review covering 5 of the biggies making headlines and my thinking on what to do next.

It’s a “mini” issue for two reasons: a) because we’re in the thick of earnings season and there’s no sense in burning midnight oil that we don’t have to as earnings emerge and b) because we need to put the finishing touches on a new video MasterClass about how to read short-term market squiggles more effectively.

Plus, not for nothing, having a little extra time allows us to begin laying the groundwork for 2026 – I know!!! - and perhaps get a precious few minutes with our families as summer begins to wane. I especially like that part.

Hooyah! 😀

Btw, if you are not a member of the One Bar Ahead® Family and you’d like to be, you can learn more here. People tell me it has changed their lives in ways they couldn’t have possibly imagined and that’s humbling as heck.