☕ Buy this, not that
Feb 17, 2026Howdy! 👋
Welcome back to a holiday-shortened week.
The markets are currently red and being led lower by tech and software shares.
SOSDD (Same old story, different day).
The global deleveraging we’ve been speaking about for weeks continues.
What a perfect time to channel your inner Buffett.
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
Time discipline and emotional control matter more than speed and excitement, at least if you're into building long-term wealth anyway.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Be sure to ask the right question
Should I sell?
That’s the number one question I get asked lately, and the honest answer is I have no idea because every investor is different.
It’s also the wrong question.
What you really want to be doing is looking through your portfolio at the stocks you own and asking yourself, “would I buy this company” at whatever price it’s dropped to?
If the answer is no, there’s your answer. But if the answer is yes, then what’re you waiting for??!!!
This isn’t rocket science.
Let the fast money obliterate each other – that’s not your fight.
The serious long-term money is buying just like they always do.
Maybe they’ve changed up their tactics or slowed down the amount of money they’re putting to work, but they are putting it to work, nonetheless.
Take Palantir, for instance.
His Excellency, Big Shortimus Maximus – aka Michael Burry – is roiling the waters; many otherwise rational people have been drawn into a fight they can’t win on social media. So they’re selling because they fear more selling.
On the other hand, Norges Bank, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world, just purchased a $5.15 billion position. BlackRock did, too. Same for Vanguard and State Street.
Let this sink in… guys like Burry are traders and they’re a dime a dozen.
What you want to focus on are the serious investors and what they make of a stock like Palantir which is that they want to buy more shares.
Case in point, over the past 24 months, institutional investors have bought ~293M shares of PLTR (~$41.4B in inflows), outpacing selling activity (~$14.6B).
The contrast is as stark as it gets.
Burry's bearish puts and technical warnings (like his head-and-shoulders pattern calling for a big drop) grab headlines and spook retail traders into panic sales. But the patient money – meaning the sovereign funds, major index holders, and long-term institutions — sees something different and the same thing I do… a strategic AI/data platform with growing defense, enterprise, and government contracts.
One growing at double and triple digits.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Traders like Burry focus on being “right” at moments in time, but the world’s most successful investors focus on being profitable for long periods of time.
2 – China just put humanoids in prime time
I caught some of China’s Lunar New Year Gala yesterday — their Super Bowl equivalent — and nearly spit out my coffee.
Front and center?
Humanoid robots performing synchronized martial arts with kids in front of hundreds of millions of viewers.
Unitree Robotics called it the world’s first autonomous humanoid cluster performance but I think it's a geopolitical flex of the first order.
Elon’s already said Tesla’s biggest competition in humanoids will be Chinese firms.
I agree and have for years.
This isn’t about robots dancing, although that was pretty dang cool.
This is about showing what robots can do by deliberately putting ‘em in a real-world context.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, whoever scales physical AI first bends the cost curve in factories, logistics, warehousing — everywhere.
Hunt down those stocks and buy 'em.
People are still focused on the tech itself, but the smartest move you can make is to own the enablers.
- AI chips
- Compute infrastructure
- Industrial automation
- Motion control and power systems
- Tesla and other physical AI integrators
Keith’s Investing Tip: The best time to make any investment move is when people can’t see things like this for what they really are.
And if you’d like some help, you know where to find me.
3 –Streaming killed the cable star… now it’s becoming cable 🤦
Warner Bros. Discovery is suddenly the belle of the ball.
Netflix wants it.
So does Paramount Skydance which waved $30… then $31 in cash. Now Netflix says, “Fine, you’ve got 7 days. Then we match.” (Read)
I couldn’t care less.
Streaming used to be a land grab but now it's a knife fight over margins.
Nothing says over the hill faster than when an “asset-light digital revolution” starts looking capital-intensive.
Growth now requires bigger checks in a crowded arena.
Pass.
Keith's Investing Tip: Buy the best, ignore the rest®.
4 – Buy this, not that
General Mills just cut annual sales and profit forecasts as weak consumer spending continues to hit demand. (Read)
Shares are down 7.41% alone today. And ~45.16% from a 2023 high of $90.61.
The dividend yield is 5.45%.
I think that gets cut next.
$25.
Putskies.
5 – It’s official: the horse-and-buggy brigade has seen its day
Used car inventory is “improving.” Or so says J.D. Power and Edmunds analysts. (Read)
Not.
You’re still paying ~$30,000 for an eight-year-old ride — about 28% more than 2020 — with loan rates north of 10%. Cars under $20K used to represent 53% of the market but now that’s less than 30%.
Legacy automakers are juggling higher rates, bloated costs, and mechanical dinosaurs that need constant maintenance.
While everyone’s arguing over a 2% price dip, the real shift is structural and has been for a long time.
Trade Idea: Long TSLA. Short F or GM or just about any other legacy maker on the planet.
Bottom Line
85% or more of all buy/sell decisions are wrong – meaning investors buy when they should be selling and sell when they should be buying.
Why?
Because people let their emotions get the better of ‘em.
Keep your emotions out of the equation and profits will follow.
Now and as always, let’s MAKE it a great day.
You got this – I promise!
Keith 😀
