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☕ Buy this, not that has never been more important

Jul 17, 2025

Howdy! 👋

All three indices are in the green as I type.

Makes sense.

Roughly 88% of the 50 S&P 500 components that have reported so far this week have beaten Wall Street’s expectations according to FactSet.

Which reminds me.

Investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism any day, every day.

Here’s my playbook.

1 - Corn-pocalypse now: Coke goes old school, ADM gets canned

U.S. President Donald Trump dropped a soda bomb on Truth Social, claiming Coca-Cola will ditch high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) for real cane sugar in U.S. drinks. (Read)

Coke says “innovative offerings” are coming, which is PR-speak for “yup, that’s probably true.”

Markets didn’t need confirmation and bailed faster than kids finding out their Halloween candy was kale.

ADM (one of the top HFCS peddlers) sank 6%

Ingredion got smacked too

Coke shares popped like a freshly shaken bottle

The Corn Refiners Association — which is a real thing, not a South Park punchline btw — panicked, warning this shift could wipe out jobs, crush farm income, and increase sugar imports… with no nutritional upside.

Doh! 🤦‍

Here’s a thought.

How about taking all that crap out of our food???!!!

Sorry you're losing a sweet gig - pun absolutely intended - but get serious.

High fructose corn syrup has been linked to a slew of health problems including obesity, type 2 diabetes, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular disease, increased triglycerides and LDL cholesterol, gout, and cognitive decline. And that’s just off the top of my head.

Here’s a short list of other stuff that’s banned abroad but served up in the US:

Brominated vegetable oil (BVO) – Found in sports drinks and sodas like Mountain Dew. Banned in the EU and Japan due to potential neurological risks.

Potassium bromates – Used in baked goods to strengthen dough. Banned in the EU, UK, Canada, Brazil. Considered a possible carcinogen.

Azodicarbonamide (ADA) – A dough conditioner used in bread (aka the “yoga mat” chemical). Banned in the EU and Australia.

rBGH/rBST (recombinant bovine growth hormone) – Given to dairy cows to boost milk production. Banned in the EU, Canada, and Japan for animal and human health concerns.

Artificial food dyes (Red 40, Yellow 5, Yellow 6) – Linked to behavioral issues in children. Banned or require warning labels in the EU.

Butylated hydroxyanisole (BHA) and Butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT) – Preservatives in cereals and snacks. Banned in the EU and Japan due to cancer concerns.

Titanium dioxide – Used to whiten candy and processed foods. Banned in the EU due to genotoxicity concerns.

MyPOV: There is no doubt in my mind that research a few years from now will highlight devastating health impacts from all "food science" ... err profit-enhancing... ingredients in our food supply.

Keith's Investing Tip: The trade isn't Coke. It’s who loses the shelf space and who gains it. Buy this, not that has never been more important. Stay focused.

Trade Idea: Long CANE and simultaneously short ADM or INGR.

2 – PepsiCo losing its fizz? Dividend investors beware

PepsiCo beat on the top and bottom lines this quarter — $2.12 adjusted EPS vs. $2.03 expected, and $22.73B in revenue vs. $22.27B expected. (Read)

Shares are higher as I type.

I wouldn’t be breaking out the confetti just yet though.

I think that the "street" is simply betting that Pepsi will follow Coke's lead on cane sugar. And ETFs that own both are catching up as the algos balance out. Funds, too.

Behind the headline beats, volume is falling, and that tells you everything you need to know about where this story is headed.

Worldwide snack volume fell 1.5%

North American food volume (Frito-Lay + Quaker) dropped 1%

North American drinks volume fell 2% — including Gatorade and bubblier names — although the original Pepsi and Pepsi Zero Sugar managed to squeak out some gains

CEO Ramon Laguarta said North American demand is “improving,” but also warned there’s “more uncertainty ahead.”

I do like Laguarta as a CEO and find his take an honest one with none of the usual "dog ate my homework" commentary we're bound to see from lesser savvy CEOs this earnings season.

Still.

Pepsi has long been a dividend darling — 53 consecutive years of increases, growing at 7.54% over the last decade. But with rising reformulation costs, shifting health trends, and softening volume, I am hard pressed to give that the same weight I used to.

Pepsi's TSY - True Shareholder Yield - of 3.09% is less than its listed yield of 3.80% because the company's debt paydown yield is negative. That's important because it means that Pepsi is not using debt efficiently, which subtracts from the overall yield picture and the "True Shareholder Yield" - a key metric I use to evaluate investment potential.

Generally speaking, I prefer higher TSY companies because my research shows 'em to be better performers over time. And share what I know about ‘em in One Bar Ahead® if that’s helpful.

3 - TSMC’s chip boom: AI eats the world

TSMC just uncorked a monster quarter — net income up 61%, revenue up nearly 39% YoY. (Read)

Shocker?

Hardly.

High-performance computing (read: AI + 5G chips) now accounts for 60% of sales, up from 52% last year. 

That’s a tectonic shift and, frankly, one we've been talking about for a looooooong time.

Should you buy it?

That’s your call. 

Personally, I'm into other chipmakers chasing vertical integration — meaning the ones designing custom AI silicon "in-house" for a couple of reasons, including bigger margins, better upside and more control. But that's just me and the OBA Family, I might add.

The point I want you to think about and consider carefully in your own portfolio is this.

Every investor who is ignoring AI isn't just missing a "trade”.

You’re ghosting an entire era of innovation if you’re not on board one way or another.

Keith's Investing Tip: There's an old expression about what to do when the chips are down. But when the chips are "up" I can almost guarantee you smart money’s already long. Be smart!

4 – Wanna dominate data, lay a cable

Meta and Google are racing to lay a globe-spanning web of subsea internet cables as bandwidth demand explodes — thanks to AI, data centers, and everything in between. (Read)

Meta’s latest project is a 50,000-kilometer cable system — longer than the Earth’s circumference. Meanwhile, Google just launched Sol, a transatlantic cable linking the U.S. to Bermuda, the Azores, and Spain… one of more than 30 cable systems Google has backed globally.

This isn’t about faster YouTube or Instagram.

It’s about data dominance — owning the digital plumbing of the modern world.

The more infrastructure a company owns, the better their margins, speeds, and strategic leverage.

And people wonder why I made a big deal of Unka Elon’s move to build a charging network in 2012 when Unka Elon rolled out the Model S.

What people don’t get is deceptively simple… the game is the same in every industry.

MyPOV: You can do all the diversifying you want but if your investments don’t reflect what I am bringing to your attention, you will miss what’s happening and, heck, probably are.

The good news is that’s a totally fixable problem.

I’ll be here if you need me.