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☕ Can Nvidia save the day and what else I’m watching

Nov 17, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The markets are flip-floppin’ around faster than a bass fisher trying to figure out where the lunkers are hiding.

Good!

That means there’s still a lot of opportunity if you know what to look for, even if “big traders are itching for a fight” as I noted on TV ahead of today’s opening bell.

1 – Can Nvidia save the day and what else I’m watching

It’s the bottom of the 9th as we head into the tail end of earnings season.

Can Nvidia and other big names save the day, or will there be more selling ahead?

That’s the question on most everybody’s mind.

It’s a function of leverage at this point and very technical short-term thinking. Smart investors who recognize what’s on the sale rack are likely to do just fine longer term.

In fact, I think it’s an amazing opportunity. (Watch)

Here’s my take with the venerable Stuart Varney who asked me specifically for my take ahead of this morning’s opening bell.

Trade Idea: LowBalls and Calls to keep risk low ahead of earnings.

2 – Two MORE of the world’s best investors agree with me

Well, well, well.

The headlines are at it again… AI bubble this, “Mag 7 too big” that… and of course the usual commentariat clutching their you-know-whats over tech volatility. (Read)

Predictable.

Here’s what actually matters.

Last week I told you about how investor Ron Baron and Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO at JPMorgan Asset and Wealth Management, see what’s happening as a wonderful opportunity. News broke over the weekend that Unka B. is buying Google in a very determined reversal, which I’ll address in a second.

Now, two MORE of the sharpest investors on the planet agree with me.

This time, it’s Bill Ford at General Atlantic and Philippe Laffont over at Coatue — on stage at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha last week — saying that they aren’t worried about an AI bubble at all because… drum roll please… a) today’s tech giants are generating the cash, b) building the infrastructure and c) driving the innovation.

I hope that sounds familiar because we’ve sure talked about that a lot over the past few years.

It’s nothing like the dot-com era.

Because the companies driving this whole AI shebang — Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon etc — are generating almost a trillion dollars in free cash flow every year.

Most with almost no debt.

Let that sink in.

There is none of the “we promise we’ll make money someday” that characterized the Dot Com era to which so many clueless pundits and bench level thinkers are comparing things.

Back then, nearly all the capital came from speculative IPOs and flimsy startups with no revenue. Today, the capital comes from disciplined incumbents with real earnings, real boards, and actual return-on-capital requirements.

Completely different universe.

The best part?

Laffont dropped a nugget that most investors will miss entirely.

Yes — compute is getting cheaper but the number of things we can do with it explodes as that happens.

A point I have made countless times.

Robotics. Cars. Humanoids. Software workflows… entire industries we don’t even have names for yet!!!

When cost falls but demand goes hyperbolic, total revenue goes up, not down.

Not that the doom and gloom crowd will bother with that part, of course – half of ‘em probably slept through Economics 101.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Innovation may slow now and then but it has never in the history of humanity ever stopped. Ever.

If you’re not tracking and wish you were, I’ll be here along with the entire OBA Family doing what we do best… lining up the next big movers and capitalizing on chaos most investors fear.

3 – Google, the scoreboard doesn’t lie

Berkshire Hathaway just took a $4.9B bite out of Alphabet and predictably shares jumped more than 5% on the news. (Read)

Cuz, you know… Warren. 🤷🏻‍

Wall Street’s acting like this is some grand endorsement of Big Tech, but I say let’s pump the brakes for a second.

Buffett, Combs, Weschler — take your pick — finally bought Google after spending years saying they “screwed up” by missing it.

MyPOV is better late than never, in fact, but let’s not pretend this suddenly makes Alphabet the second coming of Nvidia.

Google is still “me too” across the board… AI, chips, data, ads.

Alphabet is still valued more cheaply than other AI megacaps, trading at 25.5 times next year’s earnings, compared with Microsoft at 32, Nvidia at 41.9 and Broadcom at 50.8 which tells me the digital spend isn’t there yet.

To be fair, that could be “what” Unka B. is buying, but we won’t know that for a while.

Meanwhile, the scoreboard doesn’t lie.

$1,000 in GOOGL over the last 5 years → ~$3,279.80

$1,000 in PLTR → ~$10,804.50

$1,000 in NVDA → ~$13,957.00

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many people think I “hate” Google/Alphabet but that’s simply not true. Investing is a series of constant tradeoffs and for the past 5 years there have been bigger, more profitable choices to make. Think like a shark, not a minnow.

4 – Jeep: 6 years in the ditch and now they remember the map?!?!

Jeep is out this week with what it calls a “comeback.”

This one’s been a long time coming, and it hasn’t exactly been pretty. (Read)

In fact, my bride and I were just talking about Jeep specifically on our hike yesterday when we saw a new late model pull past us while sounding like the transmission was chewing screws.

After six straight years of sales declines — and a ~65% drop in share price from the 2024 peak — Jeep finally seems to have realized that you can’t price a mid-grade SUV like a luxury import and expect buyers to smile politely and play along.

Jeep has reset pricing, cleaned up quality issues (at least on paper), and are rolling out new models like they’re trying to make up for lost time. Four new vehicles in four months — including the all-electric Recon, a Wrangler-inspired EV that’s supposed to signal Jeep’s return to form.

Marketing is leaning hard into a comeback storyline, but that’s gonna be a tough row to hoe imho.

Case in point and for example, the Grand Wagoneer is a lovely vehicle, but the $111,000 price tag? That strikes me as wishful thinking dressed up in leather and chrome. Even Jeep’s CEO now admits they “confused” buyers and dealers.

Ya don’t say. 🤦‍

Still, there are flickers of progress. Jeep just booked its best quarterly sales gain in more than two years, which is great… until you realize inventory is stacking up like cordwood. The company is apparently sitting on 146 days’ worth of vehicles — nearly double the industry average.

And then there’s the timing on the Recon. Launching an EV right after federal incentives evaporated is like showing up late to a party just as the lights come on, or the cops show up.

The company says the factory can switch to producing more hybrids and gas models if needed — which tells you management already knows how this movie may play out. Perhaps they oughta ask Ford but I digress.

Here’s the real test, though.

The new Cherokee.

Jeep’s absence left a hole that rivals happily filled when it comes to mid-tier SUVs. If the Cherokee lands well, Jeep has a shot at stabilizing the business.

If not… well.

Turnarounds can work — but they don’t work on slogans. They work on pricing discipline, product clarity, and customers feeling like they can trust you again.

Take Apple in 1997, when Steve Jobs returned, cut the bloated product line and set the company on the path to the iMac, iPod and eventually the iPhone.

Or Tesla in 2018, when they clawed their way through Model 3 production hell and proved they could actually scale manufacturing.

Jeep is trying – and I applaud that - but I am hard pressed to imagine how they’re going to get past six years of sloppy, inept management, poor execution and other nonsense.

Many argue that Stellantis (which owns Jeep) is a strong turnaround and a great buy at the moment, but I think that we’re far more likely to see it at $5 before it breaks $15.

LowBalls?

Hmmm. 🤔

5 – In case ya missed it

I sat down this past weekend for an extended discussion with the fabulous, super-savvy Suze Orman to talk about why all the selling lately has been so brutal, what you need to know and, of course, a few ways to move forward with your investing anyway!

I hope you are.

No scratch that.

WE hope you are. 😄 💯

Remember…

The markets are the only store on earth where people fear a sale. (Watch)