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☕️ China bans Nvidia chips, after downloading the instructions

Sep 17, 2025

Howdy! 👋

I’ll be keeping things a bit briefer than usual today.

My mother was admitted to hospital earlier this week; my bride and I would like to check in on her so we’re gonna do that this morning. She’s doing well but the docs are being cautious.

Thanks for understanding! 😀

Here’s my playbook.

1 – A trade idea even if Powell’s crystal ball is still cracked

The markets are in a holding pattern pending commentary from Club Fed.

I can hardly wait.

Not!

A rate cut is widely expected to be “in the bag” reports CNBC but how many times have we seen that before?!?!

Powell no more understands real money than he does that his models are broken.

Cutting rates is tantamount to admitting he’s wrong (again).

I’d rather be profitable.

Trade Idea: Anything less than what the markets “expect” will be viewed as an excuse to start selling. We’re already seeing some of that selling pressure set up in the early going.

Buying a few ATM – at the money – puts could be a nice trade. So could SPY puts, again ATM. Heck, this is one of precious few instances where a triple inverse leveraged SPY fund could be just the ticket. In ALL cases, plan on exiting 24 hours later. What I am suggesting is a highly speculative lottery ticket trade.

Do not even think of attempting it if you have no idea what I am talking about or have limited options skills and even more limited discipline.

Investing Idea: The markets are the only store on Earth where investors fear a sale. Make a short list of stocks you’d like to own on a pull back or stocks you’d like to own more of if the markets present that opportunity. Figure out how much you’d like to pay and enter a LowBall order to buy your shares at whatever price works for you.

Apple, for example, is trading at $239.38 as I type but I’d love to own more shares at $235, at $230 or even $200 if it were to drop that low. I don’t think it will but orders like this help investors control risk AND play offense. Both are great for your money.

2 – China bans Nvidia chips, after downloading the instructions

Beijing has apparently banned the use of Nvidia chips according to a report in the Financial Times that CEO Jensen Huang calls, “disappointing.” (Read)

No surprise.

Beijing wants to ban Nvidia chips because they want to encourage home-grown alternatives at Nvidia’s expense. And, if history holds true, because they’ve stolen – ahem, procured – enough Nvidia manufacturing tech and know-how to do so.

The company has “guided all financial analysts not to include China.”

I think that’s appropriate.

For now.

Longer term, this won’t be anything more than a speed bump.

You know what to do.

3 – Mortgage refinancing spikes

This is interesting to me because it points out yet another disconnect between the data and reality.

Refinancing applications jumped 58% and are 70% higher than they were the same week one year ago according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s index. What’s more it’s 59.8% of total applications, up from 48.8% the prior week. (Read)

The disconnect?

Mortgage applications are still tremendously data intensive and a real pain in the you know what to put together because of the way the (predatory) credit process works in this country.

My guess is that most of the applications being recorded have been in progress for some time now and were actually initiated when fears of higher rates and another round of inflation shook the public silly. Otherwise, they don’t make sense.

If I’m right, that suggests more stress in the financial system than meets the eye.

It also implies a drop in housing prices and a decrease in sales because many of the newly minted mortgagees will be underwater.

I think we could see storage unit prices accelerate if buyers or refiers wind up in the cold which would be good for stocks like Public Storage or Extra Space Storage.

Tactically speaking, this could also be a nice setup for LEAPs on PSA or even conservative covered calls on EXR to generate a little income and lock in profits while you wait.

Hmmm. 🤔

More data and coffee needed, meanwhile.

4 – TikTok lives… at least for a while longer

As I have repeatedly suggested would be the case, China and the US have apparently come to terms to keep the lights on. (Read)

TikTok will continue to operate in the US… and be the bane of parents everywhere.

ByteDance will keep the single largest ownership stake at roughly 19%, but critically TikTok’s American assets will be transferred to US owners as part of the deal. US owners will hold 80% of the shares and reportedly include Oracle, Andreessen Horowitz and Silver Lake.

The deal will apparently be sanctified when Presidents Trump and Xi speak on Friday.

Oracle is the big winner here if what I am reading is correct.

5 – A fund for dividend hunters

Make no bones about it, I prefer individual stocks because my research shows that’s the way to go if you’re after higher returns and less risk.

But I’m often asked about dividend funds.

Especially lately.

The iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF may be a good place to start, especially if you’re worried the S&P could decline.

The yield is just 2.1% but that’s offset by 397 holdings which, according to managers, help guard against a downturn in any single industry. The expense ratio is just 0.08% which means more money in your pocket potentially because the cost of owning is lower than many other choices.

Top holdings include Broadcom, Apple, J&J and other stalwart dividend producers.

To be fair, I prefer another choice because it’s more aligned with the tech-centric profit potential that is going to charge forward for decades, and which is already having a very pronounced impact on our world today. But that’s just me.

I’m doing more research to dot the i’s and cross the t’s but anticipate sharing my choice with the One Bar Ahead® Family as part of the October issue if everything checks out like I expect it will. You can learn more about that here if that’s of interest. Or, heck, even join the family if you’d like. I’d be honored and you’d be in great company.