☕ Congress could make Waymo roadkill

Howdy! 👋 

The Dow’s rallied to a fresh high as I type while the S&P 500 and Nazzy are just about flat so far. 

To be expected. 

The ongoing collision between highly leveraged, highly computerized short-term traders and longer-term investors continues. 

There’s plenty of opportunity for both traders and investors. 

Just know who you are. 

Many folks try to do both, and that almost always ends badly. 

My perspective is simple. 

Learn to live with Wall Street even if you’re not on wall street. 

Your portfolio will thank you. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – What’s next for markets, jobs and more 

I began my day at 0610EST – yes, that’s 0310 my time PST - with Maria Bartiromo who kindly asked me back this morning to discuss earnings expectations, what I see for markets this year, jobs and more. (Watch) 

Hopefully you find it helpful perspective. 

2 – Congress could make Waymo roadkill 

A U.S. House Committee will hold a meeting on January 13th to decide – among other things – whether to dramatically lift caps for autonomous vehicles from 2,500 to 90,000 units without human controls. (Read) 

Excellent and about time, imho. 

That said, I think the law of unintended consequences is about to make an appearance. 

I’ve long maintained that the real reason autonomous driving hasn’t taken off is not because the tech wasn’t ready – which is what most people think – but because the regs weren’t and the legal system wasn’t. 

Now I’ve got another thought, albeit a controversial one. 

I believe there’s a good case to be made that the only reason Waymo has any kind of toehold whatsoever in the markets today is because regs prevented Tesla from scaling by disincentivizing that. What’s more, Nvidia just entered the game. (Read) 

The way I see it, Waymo could be roadkill. 

I know what I’ll be doing. 

You? 

3 – Is Venezuela a blueprint for China’s Taiwanese aspirations? 

The markets continue to shrug off Venezuela this morning as expected. (Read) 

To a point I made earlier this week in a special weekend update for the One Bar Ahead® Family, geopolitical shocks rarely have a lasting impact on financial markets and, in fact, tend to create more opportunity over time rather than damage. 

Even so, I can’t shake a nagging feeling in the back of my head. 

Something that’s not being talked about yet but probably will be in the weeks ahead. 

President Trump may have just inadvertently given China a playbook for Taiwan. 

Beijing is undoubtedly watching closely. 

Defense stocks have never been more critical imho. 

Nor oil stocks for that matter. (Read) 

My faves stand to gain materially from a resumption in oil shipments but one of ‘em has a super high TSY – True Shareholder Yield – which means it’s amongst the most efficient investments dividend-savvy investors can own.  

My research shows that high TSY stocks outperform simple “yielders” but that’s a story for another time. 

Hopefully you’ve got something similar in your own portfolio. If not, you may enjoy One Bar Ahead® because the model portfolio has ‘em both – top defense and energy names. 

Cold hard cash is never a bad thing – at least to my way of thinking. 😄 

Oh, and a few speculative long dated index putskies could be intriguing “just in case.” 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many investors treat investing like gambling because they believe they must be “right” to be profitable. The world’s best investors, on the other hand, focus on being profitable because they know that they can be “wrong” and still make money if they play the game properly. Let that sink in! 

And if you’d like some help, you know where to find me. 

4 – Why I want “flat” jobs reports 

JOLTS and ADP jobs numbers are out this week; economists expect 7.64 million and 45,000 to 47,000 respectively. 

It’s not about the numbers. 

Too hot and the Fed balks at lowering rates. 

Too cool and the Fed chokes on holding rates steady or lowering ‘em. 

Either way, the reports aren’t about the numbers, but WWJPD (What will Jerome Powell Do?) before he’s sent packing. 

Both could introduce more volatility at a time when what the markets really need is some calm and directional input. 

Hence, I’d really like to see “flat” reports. 

Besides and not for nothing, the Fed has already caused the next three financial crises. The Fed is always a few trillion dollars late to the party. Higher or lower doesn’t matter. 🤦‍ 

Keith’s Investing Tip: People waste a lot of mental energy trying to predict rates when what you want to do is invest in companies that can succeed no matter what the Fed does next. Rates are for traders, profits are for investors. 

5 – Warner Bros to Paramount: nice try, come back when you’ve got a real cheque 

Warner Bros. Discovery once again told Paramount “thanks, but no thanks” this morning, rejecting yet another hostile bid in favour of its $72 billion deal with Netflix.  

The board didn’t mince words either — calling Paramount’s offer inferior, underfunded, and lacking a clear path to closing. (Read) 

That’s big money speak for “nice try, come back when you’ve got a real cheque.” 

Even with billionaire backing and multiple do-overs, Paramount still couldn’t cobble together a proposal strong enough to beat Netflix’s balance sheet, regulatory clarity, and ability to close without drama.  

People say content may be king, but they’re missing the point. 

The real leverage is distribution, scale, and certainty. 

Netflix has all three. 

Even so…  

Rearranging cable networks and studios inside shrinking empires doesn’t fix the core problem. Viewers have already left the building and are increasingly turning off to – ta da – go live life instead of watching it go buy. 

Linear TV is dying.  

Streaming may hold on for a while longer, but the death spiral has already begun. 

AI will see to that. 

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I’d personally rather own just about anything than traditional cable TV right now. And if I’m going to own media exposure at all, I want the companies setting the rules — not the ones still trying to convince Wall Street that cord-cutting is a “temporary headwind.” 

Bottom Line 

Market headlines got you spooked?   

You're not alone.   

Keep your emotions out of the equation.   

That'll allow you to see what they're really worth. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this – I promise!   

Keith 😀 

PS: We’re on track to publish the One Bar Ahead® Annual Forecast issue this Friday as planned so keep an eye on your email if you’re an OBAer. Meanwhile, coffee, cookies and midnight oil futures are holding steady so far. 🤦