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☕️ CrowdStrike, time to buy?

May 07, 2025

Howdy 👋

I’ve said two things consistently when it comes to tariff tantrums:

This too shall pass; and,
The real issue isn’t tariffs themselves, but the uncertainty associated with ‘em

Now there’s a deal on the table – the UK.

The first of many.

You’ve got to be in to win or you won’t…. win!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Innovation has never failed to produce profits. Ever.

I was honored to be back on The Cow Guy Close this week — the award-winning program on RFD-TV hosted by my good friend and longtime colleague, Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady.

Scott and I covered a lot of ground in our latest sit-down and if you’ve got a few minutes, I think you’ll find it time well spent. (Watch)

We talked about whether this rally still has legs… or if it’s running on fumes. Whether a recession is actually in the cards — or just being whispered into existence by analysts with a 90-day attention span.

Perhaps more importantly, we explored a powerful truth that too many folks miss: innovation has never failed to produce profits. Ever… and history couldn’t be more clear on this.

2 – China’s at the table - sorta

The headlines are filled with optimism over upcoming U.S.-China trade talks apparently set to kick off in Switzerland later this week — and Wall Street’s already trying to price in “progress.” (Read)

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

These are de-escalation talks, not negotiations for a sweeping deal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Rep Jamieson Greer will sit down with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, but even Bessent admitted the goal is simply to agree on what to talk about.

It’s more about optics than substance — at least for now.

Investors should be watching not for breakthroughs, but for tone. Any shift toward stability — even modest — could lift sentiment in sectors like industrials, semiconductors, and logistics. That’s especially important given how rattled markets have been by rising protectionism.

Don’t expect a miracle in Switzerland. But if the tone cools and tariffs edge down, that could be the opening bell on a broader reset — and a potential tailwind for globally exposed names.

3 – Powell: “we’re making it up as we go along”

As expected, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%. No surprise there.

But the tone?

That’s where things got interesting. (Read)

Unka Powell and crew flagged rising risks on both inflation and unemployment — which is Fedspeak for: “We have no idea what’s coming next, and no idea what to do about it, but it probably won’t be pretty.” 🤦‍

With GDP shrinking 0.3% in Q1 and Trump’s tariffs kicking in, traders are now tossing around the dreaded “stagflation” word like it’s 1980 again. Job growth’s hanging on and inflation’s dipped — but that balance is fragile, and it won’t take much to knock it off the beam.

Meanwhile, the same crowd that once begged for higher rates is now drooling at the thought of cuts. They’re already front-running Powell, hoping he folds under the pressure and makes it cheaper to borrow all the juice they need to lever up and go shopping.

Watch the US 10YR because it’s the “tell.”

Meanwhile, I’ll stick with the world’s best CEOs, thank you very much.

4 – CrowdStrike layoffs signal strength, not weakness

Cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike just announced it’s trimming 5% of its workforce — about 500 roles — in a bid to streamline operations and control costs. (Read)

Many investors panic at the word “layoffs,” assuming it signals trouble.

This isn’t about weakness. It’s about being more efficient.

In fact, CrowdStrike reaffirmed its full-year revenue forecast ($4.74B to $4.81B) and maintained strong profit expectations.

That’s key.

Cuts are being made in non-core areas, while hiring continues in customer-facing and product engineering roles — the kind that drive growth, not overhead.

Trimming non-essential roles isn’t just about efficiency but an action that is likely to boost both the top line and bottom line.

Cybercrime is projected to become a $24 trillion problem by 2027.

It won’t be long before CEOs start writing dang-near blank checks to the companies helping keeping ‘em safe.

Invest accordingly.

Not for nothing, but CrowdStrike has returned 466.57% over the past 5 years while the SPY, a popular ETF choice, has turned in 110.91% over the same time frame.

Btw, if you’d like some help sorting out the wheat from the chaff when it comes to companies like CrowdStrike, I’d love to toss my hat in the ring.

5 – Impersonators on the loose (again)

This is soooooo frustrating and I am sorry for the hassle!

It’s come to my attention (again) that there are scammers out there pretending to be me — including on Instagram, and X where they’re sending private messages.

Let me be crystal clear one more time:

❌ I do not offer 1-on-1 coaching
❌ I do not run copy trading or “trade cycle optimization” schemes
❌ I will never DM you asking for money, access, or participation in a private group — ever

These messages are 100% fake.

They are not from me, and they are designed to scam you out of your money by impersonating my name, likeness, writing style — and yes, even using AI to clone my voice.

If you see a message like this, do not engage under any circumstances.

Instead, please block and report immediately, including to law enforcement if necessary.

It’s not me if it’s not coming from my verified channels — here in the 5 with Fitz, YouTube, Instagram, X or directly through One Bar Ahead®.

Thanks for staying alert and helping protect our community. 👊

MyPOV: Talk about irony, if the individuals engaged in such behaviour would put even half of all that energy into legitimate businesses, I’d consider investing.