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☕️ Crypto: Hong Kong just set the standard - the US is still holding hearings

May 22, 2025

Howdy 👋

It’s a relatively slow news day… the kind where there really isn’t a catalyst of sorts but just a few percolating headlines that are more like 2-day old donuts than freshly baked muffins.

An important reminder, if you will…

Patience and discipline are the most undervalued assets in the markets today.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Doing nothing is A-Okay

Many investors and traders get into serious bandini because they try to force a setup, or a trade or simply just because they want to do "something."

I learned a long time ago (and the hard way, at that) that sometimes the best and most profitable course of action is doing "nothing" at all.

There’s tremendous power in restraint, especially when markets are jittery, headlines are mush, and the crowd wants to chase shadows.

Remember how this works.

You don't get paid to invest or trade. You get paid to be profitable.

Keith's Investing Tip: Sit on your hands if you must. Let whatever setup or indicators and analysis you use come to you — not the other way around. This is prime time for watchlists, alerts, and quiet confidence. Tactics, too!

2 - The US 20-year treasury yield hits a new high for 2025

I won't repeat myself as we already covered this in yesterday’s Five with Fitz, but today's headlines are flooded with US treasury yields reaching the highest levels since 2023. (Read)

Now let's talk about why this is really happening.

Traders are continuing to reprice risk, something we’ve been talking about since this past Sunday when I told you that would likely be the case this week.

The cost of leverage is rising (as a function of rising rates) which means that every leveraged up to their eyeballs big money trader is re-assessing how much debt he or she wants to carry… and hitting the sell button to get under whatever thresholds they need to avoid getting pinched in the meantime.

Keith’s Investing Tip: People fret about the fact that the markets are going down, but I say good because it means stuff I want to buy is being put on sale. Buy low, sell high…er.

3 – Altman’s Instagram moment

CNBC says Sam Altman’s $6.4B bet on Jony Ive has Zuck-like qualities. (Read)

I don’t disagree.

Ive—the design genius behind the iPhone, iPad, and MacBook—will now lead creative direction across both io and OpenAI. Meanwhile, his design firm LoveFrom stays independent (and likely charges a fortune). (Read)

This isn’t just a hire, but a statement.

Zuck bought a then tiny 13-person Instagram about a month before Facebook ushered in what was to be the largest tech IPO ever at the time.

Fast forward… the FTC claims that the buy – Facebook buying Instagram – should never have been allowed in the first place because it allowed Facebook to dominate the space “to the detriment of competition and users.”

I see this deal taking a similar trajectory but with a twist.

Only this time around, Ive is the design brains which tells me that OpenAI is thinking devices whereas the Instagram and WhatsApp situation was very much about taking out competitors that threatened Facebook.

OpenAI now has a $300B private market valuation which seems to me that it's setting up one helluvan IPO when the time comes.

Meanwhile, I’ll be betting on my favorite fruity machine maker.

You?

4 – Nike to Amazon: take me back… please

After six years of playing hard to get, Nike is crawling back to Amazon. (Read)

The company famously walked away in 2019, citing concerns about brand control, counterfeits, and wanting a “more curated” customer experience.

Now?

Apparently, taking the proverbial “high road” is less of a concern when the margins get tight, sales struggle and competition is rising.

These are two companies that love to talk about being future-forward, yet here they are reviving a wholesale relationship that’s about as modern as a mall anchor store. 🤦‍

I’ve long been skeptical of both Amazon’s luxury push and Nike’s execution—neither feels particularly compelling to me right now. If you must own a retailer, at least pick one with pricing power, a defensible niche, and which is leading the pack rather than playing catch up.

It’s a short list and one that the OBA Family knows well.

5 – Hong Kong just set the standard, the US is still holding hearings

Hong Kong passed a new law this week requiring stablecoin issuers to get licensed, fully backed, and properly regulated. The new rules apply to fiat-backed stablecoins (think USDT or USDC) and are being hailed by insiders as a “global benchmark.” (Read)

To me, this is less about crypto and more about control… governments are racing to lock down the digital money rails before stablecoins do to banks what the internet did to cable.

Stablecoins now have a combined market cap of over $230 billion, and unlike speculative cryptos, they’re designed to be steady—backed by dollars, gold, or other real assets.

I call it… boring on purpose... and incredibly useful.

Especially for cross-border payments, fast settlement, and potentially cutting Visa and SWIFT right out of the loop – something I’ve been talking about for years which is why I have been so insistent that investors well… invest in digital clearing.

MyPOV: Hong Kong gets it. The U.S. is trying to catch up with its GENIUS Act, but the longer it takes to establish guardrails, the more likely we’ll see key parts of the financial future get built overseas… in China. Dubai was a contender a few years back but that seems to have been backburnered for AI for now.

My two cents is that digital currency is inevitable, and the only question is whether or not governments around the world control it. That’s why I’m keep an eye on and out for companies building infrastructure for stablecoins, tokenized payments, and cross-border rails.

The opportunity isn’t in the coins—it’s in the plumbing or this case the “bits.”

My favorite choice, btw, has returned triple digits since I brought it to the OBA Family’s attention and could still power a lot higher, thanks to developments like this one. The S&P 500, by comparison and to put that in context, has turned in a very respectable 41.40% over the same time frame.

Keith’s Investing Tip: People frequently ask me about “hot stocks”, but the real key is identifying great companies that’ll be there when you need ‘em. A process hockey legend Wayne Gretsky likened to skating where the puck will be.

I’d tell you that I’ll be here if you need me – and I will – but you already know that.

The point I really want to drive home this morning is the same one that got driven into my thick skull years ago… if you’re going to be successful in the markets, you want to think proactively by playing to win, not “not to lose” if that makes sense.

And btw, a massive tip o’the hat to every bitcoin investor out there… the dang thing just tapped another new, all time high. Hooyah! 😀💯