☕ Everybody loves gold at the top, history doesn’t

Howdy! 👋 

My exact words yesterday were simple and straight to the point... 

...“It’s not how you make money when the markets are going up and things are easy. It's how you consistently build wealth when they’re crazy... up one day and down the next.” (Read) 

I hope you took advantage of the chaos. 

Uncertainty is never an excuse for ignorance or inaction. 

Investing is about focus, not noise.  

• Plan 
• Execute 
• Repeat 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Yesterday’s fear is tomorrow’s opportunity 

I sat down for a wonderful conversation with my good friend and colleague, Scott “the Cow Guy” Shellady – so named because of the colourful pit jacket he wears on air. 

We chatted about a number of topics but without a doubt the single most important was how to think and ACT like a real, honest-to-Pete, investor when the going gets tough. 

Buying “NOW” was the thing to do I said during the worst of yesterday’s downturn. (Watch) 

And if there’s more selling? 

You tell me… after you take a hard look at this chart. 

The markets have a very defined upward bias over time. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: People worry about all sorts of things they can’t control… then wonder why they aren’t getting the results they want. Like that’s a surprise??!! There’s plenty you can control… like, oh I dunno… buying great stocks, using the right tactics to control risk, finding the next big movers. 💡 

And if you need some help? 

You wouldn’t be alone by any stretch of the imagination. Most investors haven’t got a clue and Wall Street sure as heck is not going to help much because – let’s be frank – their job is to make money from your money. 🤦‍ 

I’ll be here if you need me, along with thousands of like-minded investors from around the world who tell me what they’ve learned about those things has changed their life. Not to mention their financial future, something I find humbling as heck. 💯 

2 – Netflix: subscribers up, stock down – that’s your clue 

Netflix reported Q4 earnings after the bell yesterday and on the surface, the numbers did what they needed to do. (Read) 

• Earnings and revenue both came in slightly ahead of expectations 
• Global subscribers hit 325 million – a new all-time high 
• Ad tier continues to gain traction, with ad revenue topping $1.5bn in 2025  
• Management calling for roughly a doubling again in 2026 

So why did the stock sell off? 

Two reasons: 

1. Wall Street’s big money fleeced nervous retail investors and momentum buyers again using a tactic called the “rug pull” that we’ve spoken about many times so there’s no need to rehash that today. 
2. A quick back of the envelope review suggests more of that growth came from fees and price increases rather than from actual new eyeballs.  

There’s something else. 

GenZ and other key demographics that Netflix could once depend on are increasingly interested in short-form content a la social media which is – ta da – free. 

Older viewers - including yours truly - are getting fed up with increasingly pesky adverts (which is why many of us in the grey beard club left cable and legacy media in the first place). 

Time to buy? 

You could, but I’m not going to.  

I said on Monday ahead of earnings, in a conversation with Stuart Varney, I don’t own Netflix and never liked the business model - not because it can’t grow, but because it’s increasingly capital-intensive in a brutally fragmented market.  

That concern hasn’t changed.  

It's only intensified with the all-cash offer Netflix are making for Warner Bros. Discovery. 🤷‍♂️ 

I think that’ll strain the balance sheet. 

I’d rather own something like Palantir which has returned ~2,303% over the past 3 years versus Netflix which has turned in ~147% by comparison. 

Just sayin’. 

And speaking of which… 

3 – Palantir, another day another deal – hope you own it! 

Team Karp and HD Hyundai have expanded their strategic alliance group-wide, making this the largest and longest-running partnership Palantir has in Korea. (Read) 

Makes sense. 

Foundry and AIP are now being rolled out across the entire HD Hyundai ecosystem - from shipbuilding and heavy equipment to energy, robotics, electric systems, and marine services.  

The expectation is that this saves money, lifts margins, and compresses decision cycles in real time – across everything from refinery optimization, crude selection, predictive maintenance, and sensor data analysis.  

Next up, the two companies plan to build a Foundry and AIP Center of Excellence to train employees across HD Hyundai to use AI directly. 

So many people still think Palantir is a “software” company. 

They’re kidding themselves, imho. 

I made the comment a while back that I hope I own enough shares and that still stands. 

The next move is to take out $200 – a target, btw, that I put on the map at $75 a share before half of Wall Street could spell Palantir – then I’m thinking $500 a share. 

Not in a straight line though. 

Tactics, tactics, tactics!!! 

4 – Everybody loves gold at the top, history doesn’t 

Gold just pushed through another record and is trading at $4,819 as I type. (Read) 

There’s talk of $7,000 an oz. 

Good on everybody who owns it. 🎉 

I still don’t. 

It’s not that I don’t “like” gold or don’t want to buy it. I would love to but knowing what I know about how Wall Street works, I won’t. 

The trade is broken and will reverse quickly without warning when the time comes.  

Financial heresy? 

Probably. 

I “don’t get it”. 

Yeah, heard that one, too. 

Thing is that we’ve been here before.  

• Gold exploded on inflation, oil shocks, and geopolitical fear in the late 1970s to peak in 1980…then fell ~50% by 1982 once Volcker crushed inflation. 
• Gold surged on QE, debt panic, and currency fear related to the Global Financial Crisis, topping out in 2011 — then dropped ~45% by 2015 as policy normalized and risk appetite returned. 

If you want to stay in the game, good on ya 💯 — just understand that a move back toward the mid-$3,000s would still be well within historical and statistical norms. 

Gold is a fear trade and fear is a terrible investing model. 

Just ask anybody who covered their shorts after the CPI reading in January when markets were tapping new highs… only to watch the averages head lower after options expiry. 🤦‍ 

Keith’s Investing Tip: The key is not being in overcrowded trades when sentiment shifts. Doesn’t matter whether you ‘like’ gold or whatever stock du jour you’re talking about.  

Trade Idea: Putskies when the crowd gives up (recognizing that they may not). 

5 – Refinancing applications jumped but the real housing trade is elsewhere 

Refinancing activity just jumped sharply as rates briefly dipped to their lowest levels since last autumn, triggering a rush of applications. (Read) 

The problem? 

Rates are already moving back up as bond markets sell off on tariff threats and renewed geopolitical stress.  

I think Wall Street is scrambling to package deals, not hand out credit. 

Roughly 70% of homes built following WWII were so-called starter homes. Today that’s just 7% or so. The problem isn’t a lack of supply or money or even affordability. 

What’s being built… McMansions and stack a shack housing… is. 

I think there’s a big reload when it comes to homebuilding stocks like Lennar, D.R. Horton and PulteGroup – which is why I don’t own ‘em and I do own very specialized REITs instead. 

Hmmm. 🤔 

More data – and coffee – needed. 

Bottom Line 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this — I promise! 

Keith 😀