☕️ Google just dodged a corporate death penalty, I’m still not buying

Howdy! 👋

People are lollygagging about how terrible September is for the markets.

I don’t see things that way.

In fact, I get super excited every September including this one because I know that stocks I really want to own frequently get put “on sale.”

Sooooooo…. while everybody else is hunkering down, I’m breaking out my buy list and grinning ear to ear like some sort of deranged Cheshire Cat.

I hope you are, too.

Perspective is quite literally everything.

Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Betting against Apple – good luck with that

It’s a popular argument right now.

Apple is “just” an accounting firm more in tune with Wall Street’s expectations than innovation… they’ve lost their way… they’re behind on AI. And so on.

Bet against Apple at your own risk.

• With 2.2B active devices, any AI rollout (Apple Intelligence, Siri upgrades, on-device models) instantly reaches the largest installed premium hardware base in history. That’s monetizable through services, upgrades, and ecosystem lock-in.
• Apple throws off ~$110B in annual free cash flow, supports the world’s largest buyback program, and has more cash than most countries. That capital return is effectively a floor under the stock and a top-tier compounding engine.
• Services (iCloud, App Store, AppleCare, payments, content) deliver high-margin, recurring revenue that now accounts for over 25% of total sales. The division – which people told me point blank while laughing in my face in 2014 when I said as much – is now growing faster than hardware.

Plus, Nvidia and energy with Luke Lloyd sitting in for Scott “the CowGuy” Shellady on RFDTV yesterday. (Watch)

2 – Google just dodged a corporate death penalty

Talk about a lucky break.

No Chrome spinoff.

No Android breakup.

A federal judge let Google walk from the antitrust gallows. (Read)

Not surprisingly, shares spiked 8% after hours. So did Apple which still pockets billions for making Google the iPhone’s default search engine.

Here’s the thing.

Avoiding a breakup isn’t the same as breaking out. Google’s still “me too” in AI, chips, data, and ads.

Many Googleites go bananas when I say stuff like that, but the scoreboard doesn’t lie:

• $1,000 in $GOOG (5 yrs) → $2,670
• Same $1,000 in $NVDA → $11,990
• Same $1,000 in $PLTR → $16,930

Still feel a compelling urge to buy Google?

I don’t.

I’d rather focus on stronger names leading the charge rather than those dodging subpoenas. And do in One Bar Ahead® if that’s of interest.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Don’t confuse survival with innovation. The former is marginal, but the latter can be far more profitable, particularly if you can identify the playbook as we did for the OBA Family with Palantir sub $10 and Nvidia at $150 ahead of the split and again afterward among other names in the OBA Model Portfolio.

3 – Quantum dreams, infrastructure schemes

Finnish startup IQM Quantum Computers just raised $320M, giving it unicorn status and putting Google and IBM on notice. (Read)

What catches my attention is that this is the largest Series B capital raise ever in the quantum arena.

Series B raises – in case you are not familiar with the term – are important because companies that have Series B fundraising rounds tend to have proven products, paying customers and real market traction. The risk of “is this a real business” associated with Series A rounds is effectively off the table.

The other thing about Series B offerings is that investors at this stage are later-stage venture capitalists or strategic investors who bring not only money, but pipelines, credibility, and partners.

And finally, Series B rounds tend to set the tone for the run to subsequent financing rounds and, often, IPOs.

In plain English, Series B rounds are like taking the training wheels off.

It’s also proof positive of something I’ve been saying for a long time, longer, in fact, than many have even been aware of the term “quantum” computing.

Quantum’s no longer science fiction — it’s quickly becoming the backbone for next-gen AI, drug discovery, climate science, defense, and a dozen industries most investors haven’t even begun to consider.

My view?

Don’t get lost in the headlines — pay attention to the plumbing.

The big wins won’t come from chasing 30% spikes like a jittery day trader… though I’ll admit, that can be a blast when you catch it right.

The real opportunity lies in the infrastructure — the chips, cooling, and sheer power supply that keep quantum systems alive and scalable.

Personally, I prefer the quantum names we track in One Bar Ahead®. They’re farther along the road to commercialization and, in my view, have the most viable tech. That’s why the OBA Family already owns the best-in-class — and why the name I’m thinking about in particular has positively crushed the S&P 500 since I reintroduced it.

No guarantees that’ll continue, of course. But I do so like the odds. 😀

4 – Macy’s – we’ve seen this movie before

Macy’s popped this morning — up more than 12% pre-market after a surprisingly strong Q2. (Read)

• EPS: $0.92 vs. $0.54 expected
• Revenue: $5.5B vs. $5.2B expected
• Same-store sales: +2.6% vs. -1.8% expected
• Raised full-year outlook

Wall Street loved it.

Me?

Not so much.

Macy’s — and Nordstrom, for that matter — are still “canaries in the coalmine” when it comes to retail stocks. Sure, they can pop on earnings beats, but the structural problems remain. These are businesses without true return to scale or a growing e-commerce footprint.

Consumers are still spending, but what they’re buying — and where — has changed.

And your portfolio should reflect that.

If it doesn’t, respectfully, I submit you’ve got a problem.

We’ve seen this movie before.

Not all retail is the same and specific names are rocketing ahead even as old established names - like Target, Kohls’s, and yes, Macy’s — are struggling and will likely continue to die on the vine.

5 – Disney’s got a YouTube problem

Disney will pay $10 million to settle an FTC lawsuit over collecting kids’ data on YouTube. (Read)

Pocket change for a company that size.

The real risk as I see it is regulatory scrutiny that may reshape Disney’s ad model and further dent brand trust. Regulators are understandably watching how data gets collected and used, especially with children.

Meanwhile…

Disney shares are still bouncing around ~$120, still off ~40% from their pandemic highs.

At issue: 1) whether Disney can rebuild brand loyalty, 2) how much ad restrictions will bite into margins, and 3) if management can turn its unmatched IP into real growth rather than fines and headlines.

MyPOV: The numbers matter less than the trajectory. Disney continues to fight three major uphill battles at once: costs, consumer perception, and digital strategy. That’s why I will almost always choose companies redefining their markets over those trapped in the past.

Bottom Line

Always remember Keith’s Rule of the Back Page.

The biggest, best and potentially most profitable stories are almost always found on the “back page” where very few people are reading along.

If you know where to look, you’ll always be ahead of the crowd which is almost always a day late and a dollar short because they’re looking at the front page.

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day.

You got this – I promise!

Keith 😀