☕ Investors & Greenland: same chessboard, same square, different rules?

Howdy! 👋

Yields are up this morning in the early going and not surprisingly so’s the Dow, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down.

That means the cost of money has risen.

So the go-fast crowd is selling the most liquid stuff they can as fast as they can to get under VaR – Value at Risk – limits that would otherwise cause the institutional equivalent of a big hairy margin call.

I suspect the S&P 500 may reverse later today or even by the time you read this, so don’t let what’s happening put you off.

It’s how the game is played.

Patience and discipline are the real undervalued assets in today’s markets.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Big pharma’s buying binge

Big Pharma is back on the acquisition trail as a massive patent cliff looms. By the end of the decade, some of the world’s best‑selling drugs will lose exclusivity, putting well over $170 billion in annual revenue at risk — and that’s the conservative estimate. (Read)

The response has been predictable, if not profitable, for smart investors.

I hope you’re among ’em, but if not, it’s never too late to get moving.

Here’s the skinny.

Pharmaceutical giants are racing to snap up biotech assets to plug the holes before they appear, sparking bidding wars and driving deal activity sharply higher. In some — heck, many — cases, companies aren’t buying growth; they’re renting time.

That’s not a criticism, btw, just how the industry works.

It’s also a sign that investors need to be more selective than the headlines suggest.

Chasing takeovers almost never ends well. Neither do blockbuster drugs which — many investors are surprised to learn — live on a schedule.

The smarter and more profitable approach tends to be the one I share with the OBA Family: seek durability and experienced management.

Reinvest early when you find ’em and hang on.

Sometimes lightning strikes early and often, but other times you’ll question your sanity for having bought this or that stock while you wait. Heck, you may even question me!

I get it.

Biotech and pharma investing isn’t for the faint of heart like it once was.

The future of healthcare is moving away from one‑size‑fits‑all medicine toward more targeted, customizable approaches — personalized therapies, platform technologies, data‑driven diagnostics, and treatment systems that evolve over time.

And that means the stocks act more like startups than the stable sources of income many used to be.

Just sayin’.

And now that I think about it, I’ve got a little shopping to do.

Hooyah!

2 – Housing prices and institutional investors

US President Donald Trump wants to ban large financial institutions from investing in single‑family homes. (Read)

Normally I’d say that he should stay outta the mix, but in this instance I’ve got to admit that I think there’s something to it.

Millions of people are hurting… priced out of their homes or the dream of owning one.

That doesn’t sit well with me and never has.

Institutions flush with cash have destroyed normal pricing around the country in much the same way as big, leveraged traders continue to manipulate stock prices.

Agree or not is moot, though.

Home builders wouldn’t be building if they didn’t have buyers. Sellers wouldn’t be selling if they weren’t strapped. Are you listening, JPow??!!

Anyhoooo…

I wonder how this will hit companies like Invitation Homes, American Homes 4 Rent, and Blackstone if it passes. And builders like D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup.

Meanwhile, and because I don’t like the risk that could be in the wind, I’ll confine my real estate to very specialized, demographically‑oriented choices with rock‑solid underpinnings, generous cash flow, and even more dividends on offer. I’ll be here if you need me.

3 – Greenland: same chessboard, same square, different rules?

This is getting decidedly spicier than I’d like to see.

But contrary to what many want to think, it’s not new.

• 1867–1868: Seward Tried to Press His Luck – Fresh off snagging Alaska for $7.2 million, William Seward figured lightning might strike twice. Greenland — and even Iceland — were in his sights for minerals, fisheries, and a strategic chokehold on Canada. Problem was, Congress was still laughing about “Seward’s Folly.” The appetite wasn’t there. The idea quietly sank beneath the ice.
• 1910: The Land‑Swap That Wasn’t – Enter Maurice Egan, U.S. ambassador to Denmark, with a Rube Goldberg‑style land swap involving Greenland and far‑flung U.S. territories. On paper it was clever. In reality, it was unworkable. Denmark wasn’t interested, and complexity killed the deal before it ever saw a pen.
• 1946: Truman Reaches for the Checkbook – With WWII over and the Cold War heating up, Harry Truman cut to the chase. Greenland, he said, was “indispensable.” His solution: $100 million in gold, possibly sweetened with Alaskan land. Denmark declined — politely, firmly. The offer stayed classified for decades, but the intent was crystal clear.
• 1940–1951: Ownership Is Optional, Control Not So Much – When Nazi Germany occupied Denmark, the U.S. moved fast to defend Greenland and built bases, including what we now call Pituffik. A 1951 defense treaty locked it in with boots, radar, and leverage where it mattered most.

History rhymes, especially when it involves icy, resource‑filled land in the Arctic.

Defense stocks are very much a no‑brainer, even if salaries are “capped” — which, btw, I don’t think will hold up in court.

Buy the best, ignore the rest!

4 – Alphabet passes Apple’s market cap

Awesome!

The company is making some smart moves, and that’s great to see. (Read)

Wall Street has done a great job talking it up, and share prices reflect that in recent trading.

I am super happy for everybody who owns it. 💯

My money’s still on Apple, though.

Team Cook has returned 1,046% over the past 10 years versus Alphabet, which is now at 773.69% after a sharp run in 2025. Otherwise, it’d still be in the 400–500% range.

I’m leery.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Whenever everybody knows something — like “Google to the moon,” which seems to be the sentiment lately — it can be very profitable to look at the other side of the trade.

Speculative putskies or Butterflies.

5 – Ford, oh yea, we want in on that action, too

Ford’s not exactly known for clear direction lately.

The company’s been “all in on EVs”… then out… then kinda back in but scaling back big time.

Now they’re making noises about eyes‑off driving… in 2028… using EVs. (Read)

This part just kills me, though.

Ford exec Doug Field told CNBC that the move is intended to put Ford’s “best and newest technology where the volume is and where the accessibility is.”

Aye, caramba! 🤦‍♂️

Nothing says innovation like announcing it two years after flip‑flopping on dang near everything else it insisted was a game‑changer.

I think the stock gets a little tailwind from the buzz, but the execution is what you’ll want to watch. Everything “new” that Ford’s done within 100 miles of EVs lately seems to come with billion‑dollar write‑downs later.

Meanwhile, over in Austin, Tesla owners are already logging millions of miles of FSD — eyes on for now — and have already accumulated billions of real‑world miles.

Trade Idea: Long Tesla and maybe even GM, but short or avoid Ford. And if you own it — Ford, that is — selling into strength strikes me as a good idea.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Press releases are always part of the dog‑and‑pony show, but results put you in the winner’s circle.

Bottom Line

Every morning you have two choices.

You can sleep with your dreams or you can get up and make ’em happen.

I know what I’ll be doing.

You?

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day.

You got this — I promise!

Keith 😀