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☕️ Have we seen the bottom and what’s “up” with Apple?

Apr 14, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Earnings season is upon us and for the first time in as long as I can remember the math won’t matter. It’ll be all about what management says next.

This is still very much an event driven market.

That’s why you want to think very carefully about how you invest under the circumstances, something I spoke about in last night’s short.

Buy the best, ignore the rest!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Have the markets bottomed and what’s “up” with Apple?

I sat down with the super smart Stuart Varney ahead of today’s opening bell; he asked me what was going on with Apple and whether the markets have now bottomed. (Watch)

2 – No surprise, trading titans strike again

Goldman Sachs reported a 15% increase in Q1 2025 profit, largely driven by a jump in equities trading revenue. (Read)

Goldman followed peers JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, which also reported strong trading gains last week.

Talk about a hat trick!

I’m not surprised and trust you aren’t either.

Last week was among the most volatile on record, certainly over the past few years which means that, once again, the pros are raking in profits hand over fist where retail investors fear to tread. Indeed the past few months.

I hope you’ve been smart about it.

Heck knows we’ve talked about this enough... always do what Wall Street does, not what it says.

Trade Idea: Maybe GS on a pullback to $450s if you're a trader. But if you're an investor? Stick with the one bank that actually understands money. It's returned 99.32% since I brought it to the OBA Family’s attention versus 35.13%from the SPY—a popular ETF indexer’s choice—over the same time frame. A 2.82X performance advantage.

Hopefully you've taken a similar approach in your portfolio. If not and you’d find that helpful, you know where to find me.

3 – Pfizer pulls back, but don’t pull the plug

Pfizer made headlines this morning for ditching its once-daily oral GLP-1 weight-loss pill, danuglipron, after one trial patient showed elevated liver enzymes. (Read)

Cue the headlines, hand-wringing, and knee-jerk selloffs.

Here’s what most folks missed:

The patient had no symptoms
Liver markers recovered quickly
And similar issues have already shown up in other GLP-1 drugs that are still on the market

This isn’t a blow-up. It’s a reset.

Pfizer’s pipeline still includes a GIPR-targeting obesity drug—potentially better tolerated and more effective.

The game’s far from over.

FitzWitz: The winners aren’t always first… they’re the ones still standing after the hype fades.

Trade idea: Keep an eye on $PFE under $26 for value-focused entries, or nibble with LEAPS if you’ve got the patience to wait for a pipeline payday. And, that might be a great idea, imho.

4 - And what have I been saying about tech?

That all the fear was:

a) totally overdone, and
b) tech prices would vanish like a shot the moment we got any

Well, the President’s temporary exemptions on key chip restrictions?

Yep… that qualifies. (Read)

Look for entries on weakness... just don’t expect much of it.

MyPOV: I have been a broken record on this and I hope you’ve done something about it… like NOT going to the sidelines. Investing in optimism beats cowering in fear.

On a related note, Nvidia will be investing in the US and, betcha dimes to dollars, others are going to follow. (Read)

5 – Why China’s next move could be GREAT for smart investors

I’ve been talking about this since 2010.

China wants to make its capital markets the best in the world, and it needs western expertise to do that.

Not surprisingly, China is evaluating a plan to allow major Western market makers such as Citadel Securities, Jane Street, and Optiver to operate in its $520 billion ETF market to help with liquidity and efficiency. (Read)

Yeah, I know… they supposedly hate our tariffs and all that but this is the reality of modern China. Pragmatism over politics, especially if there’s a Yuan or two to be gained in the process.

If this goes forward, it could reshape how big money flows into China.

The last major step, btw, will be US companies listing China which will ultimately happen using some equivalent to the US ADRs offshore companies use to list in the US presently. And that could be GREAT for US investors for the simple reason that billions of new dollars will come rushing into US shares and on a previously unimaginable scale, too.

Keith’s Investing Tip from the Broken Record Department: Invest because of China, not in China (with just a few very specific exceptions as noted in the OBA Model Portfolio).