☕️ How much cash should you keep on the sidelines?

Howdy! 👋 

I hope you’re off to a great start and having a wonderful day wherever this email finds you. 

Sorry I’m a skosh later than usual and thanks for understanding. 

I did quite a bit of shopping yesterday in an attempt to take advantage of the downdraft Unka Powell created when he began flapping his jaw. (More in a moment). 

I hope you did the same. 😀 

The markets are the only store on earth where people fear a sale. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Rallies don’t die of old age, they die because the Fed kills ‘em 

The markets were moving along just fine until Fed Chair Jerome “it’s transitory” Powell got his hands on a mic yesterday. 

Figures. 

Anyhoooo… 

Powell’s clearly not stupid, so what gives? 

Simple. 

1. The Fed’s models are based on an economy that no longer exists using metrics that no longer matter and data that is increasingly stone age. 
2. The Fed collects data using horse and buggy methods at a time when the world is increasingly operating in real time. 

Powell may as well be driving down the road while looking only in the rear-view mirror. 

Sigh. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: The world’s best companies are not dependent on the Fed, let alone what JPow thinks. If anything, they are charged with producing profits despite it all. And the markets reflect that. So, find GREAT stocks – your portfolio will thank you! 

2 – How much cash should you keep on the sidelines? 

I joined my good friend and colleague, the super savvy Scott Shellady—aka “The Cow Guy”—on RFDTV yesterday for a timely conversation about something that many investors are wrestling with… how much to keep in cash versus how much to put in the markets. (Watch) 

MyPOV: Trading short-term thinking for long-term solvency is never a good bet. 

Any pain investors think they’re avoiding today by steering clear of what they consider to be dicey markets will pale in comparison to the pain of running out of money. 

Just sayin’. 

3 – Micron – buy, sell or hold? 

Micron just reported earnings that beat expectations across the board. (Read) 

• EPS came in at $3.03 vs. $2.86 expected 

• Revenue hit $11.32B vs. $11.22B expected 

• Guidance for next quarter is $12.5B vs. $11.94B consensus 

• Overall sales rose 46% YoY 

• Cloud unit revenue tripled to $4.54B 

• Data center revenue fell 22% to $1.57B 

Micron has nearly doubled in 2025 as demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips surges alongside Nvidia and the AI boom. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra put it bluntly: as the only U.S.-based memory manufacturer, Micron is uniquely positioned to capitalize. 

Not surprising to me at all.  

In fact, I’d have been shocked if they didn’t beat given what’s happening in AI. 

Should you buy Micron? 

Before you do, consider this. 

My research suggests that there are 10-15 stocks out there with “Palantir-like” potential and Micron isn’t one of ‘em, imho.  

Since Palantir bottomed out at $6.09 on January 6th, 2023, and I encouraged investors to get on board, it has returned 2,773.88%. The S&P 500, by comparison, has turned in a very healthy but still far less 81.26%. 

Over the past 12 months, the numbers are similar.  

Palantir has returned 377.63% while Micron and the S&P 500 have returned 75.10% and 17.79% respectively. 

Buy the best, ignore the rest. 

You know what to do. 😀 

4 – Get on board with AI or get left behind 

OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank just announced plans for five new AI data centers as part of the $500B Stargate project. (Read) 

• New sites will be built in Texas, New Mexico, Ohio, and the Midwest 

• Total data center capacity is now projected to hit nearly 7 gigawatts within the next three years, up from $400B already in the pipeline 

• The project is expected to create 25,000 onsite jobs 

• Nvidia will invest up to $100B in OpenAI and supply the chips powering these builds 

CEO Sam Altman summed it up neatly: “AI can only fulfill its promise if we build the compute to power it.” 

No surprise, at least to me anyway – and hopefully not to you either if you’ve been reading along for any length of time whatsoever. 

AI isn’t “a” technology — it’s the technology.  

Projects like Stargate are about building digital infrastructure that will alter the course of humanity for the next 50 years. Yet they are already having a profound impact on investing today. 

If you’re already on board with your favorite AI infrastructure names, fabulous. If not, what’s happening in Texas is another reminder that the window to get on the path to profits is closing fast. 

5 – Lithium Americas shares soar 80% 

Lithium Americas shares soared nearly 80% after reports the Trump administration wants an equity stake in the company. (Read) 

Makes sense. 

Lithium is a critical material for EV batteries and supply chain independence is a national security issue. 

• Lithium Americas owns 62% of the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada (GM owns 38%) 

• Thacker Pass is expected to become one of the largest lithium sources in North America when operations begin in 2027 

• The White House is linking the stake to a renegotiated $2.2B Department of Energy loan 

• This would be the first U.S. equity stake in a Canadian miner (LAC is based in Vancouver but trades in Toronto and New York) 

• The DoD already took a 15% stake in MP Materials in July — those shares have more than doubled since 

My $0.02? 

We are clearly entering an era where there’s government “skin in the game.” 

Scores of folks are gonna grouse about that and that’s understandable. 

However, that’s the world we live in. 

Would you rather have your government take an interest in preserving your security if it means investing in key companies or would you rather call Beijing to see what’s what. 

People forget that much of the world we take for granted today came from projects with direct government involvement including – front and center – the Internet itself.  

Other examples include GPS, semiconductors, aerospace and commercial aviation – all of which are what they are today because they were either seeded with government spending or worked hand in hand with Uncle Sam. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: You don’t argue the odds when Uncle Sam comes to the table. Rare earths, lithium, chips, defense suppliers are all prime candidates. 

The “buy list” is pretty short if that makes sense. Quality companies will always bubble to the top or get a hand when they need it. The One Bar Ahead® Family already has a very focused list and I’d love to welcome you on board if that’d be helpful. 

Bottom Line 

Today’s bottom line is one to keep front and center. 

Stick it on your screen, jot it in your journal, heck, even write it on your forehead if you must. 

Whatever it takes to internalize this truth… 

Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀