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Smart investors know you don’t get off a winning horse mid-race

Jul 31, 2023

Good morning! 👋

Futures are up slightly as we are heading into a massive earnings week. Anybody on the sidelines now risks being left so far behind that they will quite literally and very likely never catch up.

FactSet data shows that nearly 80% of the companies that have reported as of last Friday have beaten expectations. Normally, that number is around 60%.

Think about it! 😊

Wall Street is looking to cap off a winning month and the S&P 500 is, in fact, on track for its fifth positive month in a row.

Here’s my playbook.

An Apple a day…

Tech is still THE place to be and will be for a decade, perhaps longer.

As I noted during a discussion with the fantastic David Asman ahead of the opening bell this morning on FOX Business, the genie isn’t going back in the bottle. (Watch)

I think Apple will put up tremendous numbers.

Most people are going to focus on iPhone sales, but they’re ignoring the real prize… what Apple does with all the data it collects and how Team Cook uses that to envelop your life.

Music, data, entertainment, finance… it’s all there.

Or will be.

I hope I own enough… shares, that is.

Oil & gas beat out solar—again

Reuters reports that Britain has committed to hundreds of new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea “as part of efforts to become more energy independent.” (Read)

Climate campaigners are beside themselves.

The daunting reality is that dino juice isn’t going away, and savvy investors would be wise to regard investing in energy as a continuum, not an on/off switch.

Solar faces some unique challenges, though.

According to Public, solar panels are 3X more carbon-intensive than the IPCC (which is the international body for assessing the science related to climate change) claims. (Read)

The article states that “the IPCC claims solar PV is 48 gCO2/kWh. But... a new investigation started by Italian researcher Enrico Mariutti suggests that the number is closer to between 170 and 250 gCO2/kWh, depending on the energy mix used to power PV [photovoltaic] production. If this estimate is accurate, solar would not compare favorably with natural gas, which is around 50 gCO2/kWh with carbon capture and 400 to 500 without.”

I’m not selling my oil & gas stocks anytime soon.


AI soon ready for a role on "General Hospital"?

Scott Gottlieb, FDA commissioner and a board member of Pfizer, says AI may soon replace doctors, at least for certain medical functions. (Read)

ChatGPT recently passed the US Medical Licensing Exam, and Gottlieb thinks it’s only a matter of time before it’ll be able to diagnose illnesses and suggest treatments like a real physician. The greatest hurdle, he says, right now is not AI itself... but regulators, who fear false diagnoses and wrong treatment decisions. MyPOV is that it’ll be the lawyers who will undoubtedly make it very expensive for anybody on the wrong side of the fence, but that’s just me.

Personally, I cannot wait for more AI-driven medicine!

Meanwhile, I’m super thrilled to invest in my favourite chip makers, for the simple reason that somebody’s got to power all that digital horsepower.

Quest launches first direct-to-consumer blood test for Alzheimer's

This has been a long time coming. (Read)

What’s more, this is near and dear to me personally because the men in my family tend to develop Alzheimer’s. So I’m all for early detection and, to the extent possible, prevention.

Called AD-Detect, the test uses the same tech doctors have had at their disposal since early 2022. What makes it so important is that the results can let you know that you’re at risk potentially years in advance of being symptomatic.

Combine that with Leqembi (a new drug from Eisai and Biogen), and there could be a real preventative treatment on the horizon. Certainly one that helps slow the advance in early-stage patients.


Meanwhile, I’ll continue to invest in companies on the cusp of data-driven, customizable medicine because developments like this are going to usher in a new generation of profits.

Yellow to file for bankruptcy

There were once dozens of freight and trucking firms.

Now there’s going to be one less.

Yellow will file for bankruptcy, according to the Teamsters. (Read)

The company handled as many as 49,000 shipments a day, but as of this week, that’s down to only 10,000–15,000 daily.

FedEx and UPS can easily absorb the flow and, in fact, probably already are.

To a point I have made many times over the past few years, invest in the best, ignore the rest.

Companies like Yellow that have steadfastly clung to their ways while the world has changed around ‘em are in for a rough ride.

Most won’t make it.

Be in to win or you won’t... win.

Bottom Line

The real flex is being able to walk away from your screens.

Just sayin’.

Now, let’s get a super-strong start to the week.

I’m thrilled we’re on the journey together—thanks for reading along!

Keith 😊

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