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I’d still rather own Microsoft than Amazon

Oct 27, 2023

Good morning! 👋

Game on.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are in the green in the early going on the back of strong tech earnings. The much-narrower Dow is still red, though.

I’d be very surprised if we don’t get a hard sell into the close but just as happy if that doesn’t happen because it means the strength we know is there continues to build.

I hope you’re paying attention.

Contrary to what most people think, dips are where you make your money… it’s just not apparent until you get a chance to look in the rearview mirror.

Plan your trade, then trade your plan.

And your investments!

Here’s my playbook.

I’d still rather own MSFT than AMZN

I took to the air Monday with the fabulous Stuart Varney, who asked me how I was set up for the week.

“Don’t forget Amazon,” I counselled. (Watch)

Cost-cutting efforts were going to come in strong and, I felt, potentially have a big impact on earnings.

Looks like I was on to something.

Amazon just reported a double beat, revenue up 13% for the quarter, and more. (Read)

The one fly in Amazon’s ointment is AWS, though.

Revenue reflected 12% growth this quarter, while Microsoft’s Azure and Google’s Cloud jumped 29% and 22%, respectively.


I’d still rather be long MSFT than AMZN.

US fighters engage Iranian targets in Syria

Buckle up. (Read)

And buy defense stocks.

If you’re nervous about falling prices, I get it, but respectfully, that’s your emotions talking.

Lower prices are almost always an opportunity when viewed in the rearview mirror. So, stick to your discipline and your plan.

You do have one… right?

If not, I’d love to help. You know where to find me.

Grandpa Google’s smokescreen

I’ve talked extensively about how and why I think Google’s days are numbered.

I’m not the only one.

CNBC reports that young users refer to the search engine as “Grandpa Google,” a sentiment I have heard more than once for the past few years.

Here’s where it gets interesting.

The comments came from Prabhakar Raghavan, a Google senior vice president responsible for products including search, ads, and commerce during testimony as it fights antitrust violations. (Read)

I think he’s doing an exquisite job of trying to control the narrative.

  • If he can convince the court that Google is seen by consumers as antiquated or out of touch, perhaps the government regulators will leave it alone… which would be good for business as usual as it attempts to maintain search dominance.

  • If he fails, the government wins, and Google gets yet another slap in the face at the wrong time.

Either way, seems to me that the company is still playing catch-up with regard to ChatGPT and terrified that Apple’s set its sights on India, where it’s operated with near impunity for years.

Netflix’s buzzword bingo = higher prices (again)

Netflix is a company that has defied all odds for years.

Now they’re going to re-re-re-release ideas and shows by licensing older content from third parties to bring it online. (Read)

The company says it believes “this will deliver additional value for our members, as well as for rights holders who benefit from increased awareness and revenue that Netflix delivers, in addition to the new life that success on Netflix can drive.”

Translation: We’re gonna jack prices to pay for shows you’ve seen a million times, and there’s not a dang thing you can do about it.

I think it’s good for a few points into 2024.

However, Netflix has got to take out 52-week highs of $485 first, and that’s gonna be tough in a market that’s facing the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, China’s bromance with Putin, and the Fed’s next follies.

Trade Idea: Selling credit spreads at or near the highs could be a great way to capitalize on the chaos while the market stores up the energy needed to push higher. Covered calls, too.

Dropping off the grid here

The world is a complicated place at the moment, and there’s nothing I’d like to do more than drop off the grid for a while.

I found this casita today by accident while doing this morning’s research and think it looks super appealing. (Read)


The casita sits on 2.5 acres and is located about 20 minutes from Joshua Tree in an area where Noriko and I love to motorcycle when we get the chance. Interestingly, it also comes with a current Airbnb account, website, and even an Instagram account with 12,000 followers.

I might just have to unleash my inner landlord!

Bottom Line

Pessimists have a hard time making money.

Be an optimist.

Life is a lot more pleasant, and profits become a lot more consistent.

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and finish the week strong!

Keith 😊

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