☕ I nearly spat out my coffee — The bubble babblers are back

Good morning! 👋 

And we’re off... 

The markets opened green but are now split and I think they go red by the time you read this. 

Whatever happens next, the playbook doesn’t change.  

A lot of people get hung up thinking it should because they believe every headline demands a big reaction.  

Not true. 

There’s a big difference between investing in the future based on what might happen – as in the Fed, China, Big Shortimus Maximus etc – versus what’s likely to happen – great companies continue to reshape our world and produce ginormous profits for investors who own ‘em. 

Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – 130k jobs, and 898k oopsies 

JPow and his band of spreadsheet whisperers are probably back in the conference room this morning.  

Why? 

Because the U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January — more than double the 55,000 expected. (Read) 

Unemployment dipped to 4.3% and right on cue, yields jumped because traders perceive the Fed is less likely to cut following “hot” numbers. 

Put another way. 

“Stronger than expected” means the economy isn’t cooling fast enough for the Fed’s liking… which means traders immediately start muttering “higher for longer.” 

What catches my attention is that nearly all the hiring came from health care and social assistance. Payrolls for the prior year, meanwhile, were quietly revised lower by 898,000 jobs. 

Oopsie. 

So what’s the investment play here? 

Stuff that’s related to healthcare, but which isn’t dependent on the Fed. 

My faves include a specialized REIT that has a nice source of blend of income and appreciation built in. Not to mention a certain, best-in-class, monster bank that finances both.  

Keith’s Investing Tip: Worrying about WWJPD (What Will J Pow Do) is a waste of your time. Instead focus on demographic-driven hiring in areas that don’t give a rip what the Fed’s next move is. 

Hope you’ve got something similar in your portfolio, too. And if ya don’t, I would encourage you to think along those lines. You know where to find me if that’s of interest or helpful.  

2 – Supersized, fries and a side of socks 

Yes, McDonald’s beat on both the top and bottom line. (Read) 

Yes, international growth looked solid. 

Dig one layer deeper to what’s really driving the numbers… “Extra value” meals, viral promotions and heavy marketing. For example… the recent Grinch campaign delivered the highest single sales day in company history — fueled in part by selling 50 million pairs of socks. 

Socks. 🤦‍ 

Management is also leaning into a GLP-1-aware strategy — tweaking menus, emphasizing protein, and thinking about how to serve customers on weight-loss drugs.  

Here’s an idea. 

How about making healthy food with real ingredients instead of marketing around the side-effects of your own customer base??!! 

I’ll continue to avoid Ronnie’s Place as an investor and as a diner. 

Not for nothing, McDonald’s has underperformed the S&P 500 over the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year periods. 🤷‍♂️ 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Investing done right is a constant series of tradeoffs. Sure, a company like McDonald’s can do okay, but when you have stellar on offer with a choice like Palantir… I know which one I’d rather own. You? 

3 – Now, even Russia’s had it with Meta 

WhatsApp was the last Western holdout in Russia. 

Now it’s toast. 

Russia has officially blocked WhatsApp and nudged 100M+ users towards a new state-backed messaging platform. (Read) 

The Kremlin says this move is about legal compliance, whereas WhatsApp (and El Zucko property owned by Meta) says it’s about forcing citizens onto a surveillance platform. 

That’s rich. 

Meta, the company that can target you based on a 0.3 second scroll pause is suddenly worried about privacy and surveillance? 

Puuuuuulease. 

To a point I made Tuesday on the Cow Guy Show, Meta’s real risk isn’t competition.  

It’s legal precedent and government leverage. 

Again and as much as I can’t stand Meta as long as Zuck runs the place, the stock’s probably good for $1,000 a share a few years from now based on what the company is investing in AI. 

I’m not alone, incidentally. 

Bill Ackman just revealed a sizable position equal to roughly 10% of Pershing’s capital. (Read) 

Keith’s Investing Tip: I have repeatedly urged you to think like a shark not a minnow because that’s what the best and most successful investors do. This isn’t complicated. The best time to buy stocks that interest you tends to be when nobody else wants ‘em. And, something else I have repeatedly told you, the 13F filings inevitably show that people like Ackman buy into big selloffs. The One Bar Ahead® Family does the same thing for the same reason. 

4 – No, big tech isn’t bubbling 

I ‘bout to spit out my coffee this morning when I read that the media’s bubble babblers are at it again. (Read) 

Now they’re worried about Big Tech raising huge piles of money for AI. 

Sigh. 

That’s not new. 

Companies do it all the time. 

What’s different is the number of zeroes. 

People see scale and assume mania, but what they don’t realize is that scale equals ambition, not stupidity or froth. 

AI is a foundational infrastructure that is changing the course of humanity. 

Railroads, same thing. 

Electricity, same thing. 

Fiber, same thing. 

Cloud, same thing. 

Companies that hesitate become footnotes but the ones that lead become empires. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Underinvesting is the real risk here which is why – very bluntly – you want to invest in the companies doing the investing. Capex now will determine dominance and competitive power for the next decade. 

5 – Tuesday’s HOOD trade idea is working

On Monday – when speaking about Robinhood – I said very specifically: 

Trade Idea:  Given recent short-term trading conditions, I’d consider shorting or buying puts into earnings if the stock is rising late Tuesday. Then a quick exit if the afterhours gang drives it lower overnight. If the stock drops into the closing bell, the opposite is true and buying or selling near term cash secured puts the morning after could be a smart move. (See #3) 

I hope you did. 

Shares are down ~15% from Tuesday’s close of $85.60.  

Had an investor purchased the HOOD Feb 13, 2026 $86 put option (ticker: HOOD260213P00086000) on Tuesday afternoon when it was trading in the ~$4 - $5 range, he or she would be sitting on ~150%+ given that they’re trading at ~$11 – a juicy gain. 

Other puts are appreciating similarly in keeping with what happens as the underlying drops. 

Victory dancing is optional, but encouraged. 🕺 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Learning to trade around key investing positions is a skill that I believe every investor would be wise to learn if for no other reason than that it keeps you sharp. And, not for nothing, can be a lot of fun, too. Just keep positions small so it stays that way – fun - even if you biff a few… and you will just like I do. 🙄 

Bottom Line 

People have doubts about themselves, about the markets, about life.    

That’s normal.    

Don't let anybody or anything stop you. 

Now and as always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀