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☕ If tech takes a hit, guess what people will be buying?

Feb 12, 2024

Howdy!  

Looking forward to a jam-packed day today. 

First up, a conversation with the venerable Stuart Varney ahead of the opening bell. Then, I’ll shift gears to a Monday update for the OBA Family before moving on to preparations for my upcoming keynote address at the Las Vegas MoneyShow next week.

I hope you’re off to a great start, too! 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – 83% of US companies are beating estimates; why you should pay attention 

That’s the case made by Deutsche Bank chief equity strategist Binky Chadha. Per Chadha's research, this is the highest mark in two years and "well above the upper end of its pre-pandemic range." It's also significantly higher than the beat rates in other countries, which could be an indicator of why US stocks are outperforming other markets. 

I agree. 

What you want to pay attention to is even more powerful, though. 

This activity is consistent with the initial stages of recoveries from major cyclical downturns, not the edge of another economic cliff. (Watch) 

Keith’s Investing Tip: You can make money, or you can make excuses. Just not both and certainly not at the same time. 

2 - Palantir to $50 

People are waking up at $24 to what we – you and I – have known since $6. 

AI is the greatest investing opportunity in recorded human history. 

Not “just” another technology.  

  1. PLTR had few partners in 2021, now it has 21+ major partners including Azure, AWS and Google Cloud as well as the major consultants on board. Channel sales could account for 80% or more of total revenues within the next few years. 
  2. The US Commercial Division is growing at 70% a year, propelled by what CEO Alex Karp describes as unprecedented demand. Makes sense... 55%+ of technology officers say their companies will invest in generative AI within the next 6 months. 
  3. Less than 5% of enterprise level companies used AI models and interfaces in 2023 but that number will jump to 80%+ by 2026 according to Gartner. 

 MyPOV: People swear up down and sideways that they won’t miss the next MSFT, AAPL or AMZN... yet and very predictably, that’s what happens. My two cents is that a) opportunities like this are rarer than hen’s teeth and b) it’s a totally fixable problem. Ask yourself what are you waiting for if you’re not on board with PLTR and other companies we talk about frequently?!

Not every stock is suitable for every investor but come on already – think! 

3 – Oil is just like semiconductors, but nobody cares 

I couldn’t have put it any better myself. (Read) 

And have. 

VanEck’s CEO Jan van Eck told CNBC that “The [oil] supply is there. The companies are arguably the next best cash flowing companies [compared to] the semiconductors,” he told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “They’re trading at double-digit cash flow yields for E&Ps [exploration and production] and sectors in the oil market. No one cares.” 

Yep, but think about this. 

If tech takes a hit, guess what people will be buying? 

Speaking of which, my fav has a true shareholder yield of 10.48% at the moment which is substantially higher than the indicated dividend yield most investors see on various websites.  

If you’ve got this covered, that’s great! If not and you’d like a little help, I’d be honoured to earn your trust, goodwill, and business. Simple as that. (Learn more) 

4 - Bezos will save $600M in taxes moving to Miami 

Politicians will never understand. 

Money is like water and will always flow to where it is treated best. (Read)

5 - Crypto advertisers not in the Super Bowl 

My how times change.

The crypto industry has been cut in half and, to hear insiders tell it, all the advertising slots were sold out last November anyway. 

Perhaps. 

What catches my attention is that Bitcoin ETFs were not approved until months later... and Wall Street – not bitcoin players themselves – would have dominated the rent roll so to speak. 

Remember... Wall Street hated crypto until recently when they figured out yet another way to fleece the investing public and got approval to do it with ETFs (they’ll use as cannon fodder) for their own trading strategies. 

I’ll stick with my favorite bank, thank you very much. 

Bottom Line 

If your investments are not working, the problem isn’t the markets, the Fed, China, or anything else.  

Chances are it’s the person looking out at you in the mirror who’s holding you and your money back. 

Get that person under control and everything else will fall into place. 

Make it a great day and – as always – you got this! 

Keith 😊 

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