☕ If this is what fear looks like, I’d hate to see optimism 😀

Good morning! 👋 

It’s Hayley here this morning as Keith is getting his feet under him and adjusting to a seventeen-hour time difference. I imagine he’ll be promoting caffeine to a major food group, if he hasn’t already.  

While he settles in, I want to pass along something he and I have been discussing. 

The idea of not getting faked out. 

Meaning, staying aware and not letting short-term movements, noise or emotion trick you into making the wrong long-term decision. 

As we wrap up earnings and head toward 2026, there’s no shortage of worry and tension creeping in.  

I can see red right now in pre-market trading data but here’s something you might not realise… the S&P 500 climbed within 0.3% of its all-time closing high on Friday. 

If this is what fear looks like, I’d hate to see what optimism looks like. 😀 

Something Keith always emphasises is that the strongest companies pull ahead during periods of uncertainty. It's always the same throughout history; those companies making must-have products and services, do just fine. 

Scrap that.  

Better than just fine.  

Don’t believe me? 

Let's start in the 18th century.  

• 1720 - South Sea Bubble: 
  Markets collapsed as shares fell nearly 90%. Confidence evaporated. 
  Yet: Financial reforms followed, trust was rebuilt and Britain entered the Industrial Revolution, one of the greatest growth periods in history. 

Now jump to the 19th century. 

• 1819 - America’s first major panic: 
  Banks failed, commodity prices crashed and unemployment soared. 
  Yet: Essential-goods companies like Brown & Ives and DuPont kept operating and expanding, strengthening their competitive position. 

• 1873 - The Long Depression: 
  More than 50 railroads went bankrupt, and 18,000 businesses collapsed. 
  Yet: The Great Northern and Pennsylvania railroads stayed solvent, kept building and became industry powerhouses in the decades that followed. 

And the same pattern shows up again and again in the 20th and 21st centuries. 

We’ve got a great graphic that makes the pattern impossible to miss. 

Since 1871, markets have always recovered - but quality companies recover faster. 

Now a lot of investors worry about buying “at the top”. It feels risky, emotional, and counter-intuitive. 

But history doesn’t agree. Even buying at “the top” has proven surprisingly profitable over time. 

Palantir is just one excellent example that comes to mind. 

Some were convinced that buying at around ~$125 in February was madness, yet the shares have returned ~46% since then. 

The same thing happened at ~$80 in January - those purchases have returned about 127%. 

And anyone who bought near ~$27 in March ‘24 has seen returns of roughly 585%. 

It felt uncomfortable at the time, but zooming out gives a different story altogether. 

Here’s something else most investors don’t realise: 

• Roughly 60% of all S&P 500 all-time highs are followed by another within just 20 days.  

• Over half of all monthly all-time highs are followed by another within three months.  

• And over any 20-year rolling period, the S&P 500 has never produced a negative return. That doesn’t mean it cannot, but it does show you why it’s more important to focus on probabilities, not possibilities. 

The Keithism is simple:  

With that, have a great day wherever you are in the world. 

You got this – I promise! 💯 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

Hayley E 😀