☕ Investing if E.T. really did phone home

Howdy! 👋 

Welcome to Friyay! 

News is breaking as I type that the Supreme Court may have blocked the President’s emergency tariffs. 

Not surprisingly, all three indices have flipped green. 

We’ll know more shortly. 

Meanwhile… 

Don’t chase yesterday’s trends. Instead, position for tomorrow’s inevitabilities. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – US-Iran tensions could spike this market, hint it's not oil 

The tensions between US-Iran are continuing as U.S. President Trump has given Iran 10-15 days to agree to a nuclear deal. If not, he’s warning that “really bad things” will happen — which markets interpret as possible U.S. military strikes. (Read) 

Oil prices jumped to 6-month highs. 

No surprise.  

Short-term volatility? Absolutely possible.  

So, what can you do? 

If you’re an OBAer, read today’s AMAs (which went out earlier today given the situation). 

And if you’re not, be darn certain you know what you own and why you own it. 

Meanwhile and on a purely speculative basis, buying calls on any of the insurers rating cargo through the Strait of Hormuz could be interesting.  

Why? 

No insurance = no shipping. 

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through this narrow passage between Oman and Iran, making it one of the most critical chokepoints of global energy trade... and vessels passing through carry a suit of marine insurance policies including hull & machinery, cargo, war-risk and political violence.  

As geopolitical risk rises in the gulf, war-risk insurance can re-price quickly. Market reports indicate war-risk premiums for vessels transiting the region – along with specialty marine and political risk premiums – climbed from 0.2%-0.3% to roughly 0.4%-0.5% in the last year due to periods of prolonged tension. 

Potential beneficiaries include underwriters operating through Lloyd’s and Bermuda – firms including AXIS Capital, Beazley, and Lancashire – that price and absorb terrorism, political violence, and war-risk exposure behind global energy flows.  

To be fair, that trade is probably already crowded, but it could be worth a look, because while everyone watches crude, few watch who price the risk behind it.  

Hmmm. 

2 – The Ministry of Whitewash strikes again 

I thought we might get a hotter rather than cooler GDP report but that was not to be. 

GDP slowed sharply to 1.4% after running hot in Q3 while so-called Core PCE just ticked up to 3.0% — still well above the Fed’s 2% target. (Read) 

Translation? 

Now, Unka Powell doesn’t have a clean excuse to rush into aggressive rate cuts. 

What’s an investor to do? 

MyPOV is simple: 

• Stick to the plan 
• No stupid decisions 
• Buy the best, ignore the rest® 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Rates are for traders and profits are for investors. 

3 – Rise of the Vanlords 

In Santa Clara County — home to Apple and Google — the share of people sleeping in cars has jumped from 18% in 2019 to 37% last year. (Read) 

Skyrocketing rents and supply shortages have created a shadow market of “vanlords” renting ageing RVs to people shut out of traditional leases. 

Put another way, housing costs are now so extreme that they’ve detached from local earning capacity. Meaning many people can’t afford to live in their own neighborhood. 

History suggests this ends one of two ways. 

• Money leaves 
• Policy becomes punitive before it becomes productive 

Trade Idea: Consider shares in California Water Service Group which serves the area or Covenant Logistics Group Inc, a logistics company that appears to have at least one water-related contract in the area.  

I’m not sure either idea is a table-banger, but that’s not the point. People can live in vans but they can’t live without water. 

Or, simply flip that around and buy housing, moving and self-storage companies serving the accelerating exodus for the simple reason that money is like water in that it flows to where it’s treated best. 

4 – It’s not just China that wants US tech 

Three Silicon Valley engineers were indicted this week for allegedly stealing Google trade secrets – including sensitive processor and cryptography design – and transferring that data to Iran. (Read) 

According to prosecutors, the material involved system-on-chip architecture similar to what powers high-end smartphones and advanced mobile devices. Google detected the breach through routine internal monitoring and referred the case to law enforcement. 

The most important assets inside companies like Google, Qualcomm or any advanced semiconductor designer aren’t buildings or balance sheet line items — they’re algorithms, architecture and security design.  

In an era where AI, mobile computing and defense technologies increasingly overlap, protecting that intellectual property becomes a national security issue as much as a corporate one. 

This is why you hear me talk so often about the growing importance of cybersecurity and digital sovereignty. 

My fave has returned ~270.02% over the past 3 years, handily outperforming the S&P 500 which turned in ~68.12% over the same time frame. 

Hopefully you’re thinking along the same lines. 

Cybersecurity goes way beyond simple identity theft now, and, in fact, is a $10.5 trillion problem. Company execs used to think of it as a “department” but now they’re practically writing blank checks to the right vendors… including my fave. 

If you do not have a cyber security component in your own portfolio, I encourage you to rethink that premise immediately. 

I’ll be here if you need me or would like help finding what I think are the best stocks in the space. 

5 – E.T. called… or did he? 👽 

I’ve been doing this a long time and I never in a million years thought I would ever seriously be talking about investing if there were aliens. 

But here we are. 

US President Donald Trump has ordered the release of UFO records. (Read) 

Cue the X-Files music. 

I’ll admit, I’m intrigued. 

That said, let’s separate curiosity from money. 

If the files confirm “we are not alone,” I’m betting the markets wobble for a skosh… algos go haywire… gold spikes… defense stocks catch a bid… and then traders remember earnings still matter. 

And if the files confirm a big nothing burger? 

Well, half the country won’t believe it anyway. 

Here’s the real angle to my way of thinking. 

Governments don’t declassify sensitive material unless the strategic risk is manageable — or already priced in. 

Which brings us straight to defense, aerospace, space tech, and advanced materials. 

If there’s even a whisper of “unknown tech,” money will flow to those stocks faster than Captain Kirk can say, “Warp Drive.” 

I’ve got a shopping list ready for the OBA Family including several key names that have plenty of upside to my way of thinking if we learn that there really are Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) and Non-Human Intelligence (NHI).  

Or consider picking up shares in the Tuttle Capital UFO Disclosure ETF – seriously, it’s a thing. 🤷‍ 

And no, doggonit, I didn’t think of it!!! 

Bottom Line 

Fear is a powerful anti-motivator, yet at the same time one of the single biggest and most compelling opportunities if you can overcome it. 

Now and as always, let’s MAKE it a great day and finish the week strong. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀