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☕️ Is Altman wrong? MyPOV

Aug 19, 2025

Howdy! 🤠

We’re at that point in earnings season where most of the big numbers that matter have already been put on the table so it’ll be mostly the stragglers from here on out with one or two exceptions.

What does that mean for markets?

The usual.

That they’ll lurch from headline to headline.

Stay focused!

Absent a major misfire from ongoing geopolitics or the Fed which is increasingly irrelevant imho, there’s still a lot of money looking for a home.

Buy the best, ignore the rest.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Intel getting a bailout, err… investment from SoftBank

Shares are higher this morning on news that SoftBank is tossing in $2B for roughly 2% of Intel’s shares. (Read)

Investors are viewing it as a sign of confidence but I’m more skeptical than ever.

Intel has spent heavily on a new manufacturing business and hasn’t yet lined up a single significant customer.

This smells more like a pre-emptive move intended to position it for a buyout.

Intel shares collapsed losing 60% of their value last year, the single worst performance in any year since the company went public more than 50 years ago.

If anything, I’d be thinking about buying SoftBank which bought Arm in 2016 and has plans announced earlier this year to buy Ampere. It’s also part of the Stargate along with OpenAI and Oracle.

Btw, none of this changes the fact that I don’t think Intel survives… at least as we know it anyway.

Short or avoid.

2 – Altman: Some investors will be left “very burnt”

Sam Altman says AI is in a bubble and that threw a lot of folks. (Read)

Don’t let it bug you.

What he said next is far more important.

Altman noted that he will continue to “keep aggressively” spending on AI

infrastructure.

Reinforces a point I make often.

Sometimes it’s better to buy the haystack than the needle.

Btw, I also got a kick outta the fact that Altman noted that, “you should expect a bunch of economists wringing their hands, saying, ‘This is so crazy, it’s so reckless,’ and we’ll just be like, ‘You know what? Let us do our thing.’”

That’s the important part.

Altman just threw down the gauntlet… “let us do our thing.”

The game is just getting started and if you’re not investing accordingly (and smartly), you will get left behind.

Quality names only.

Pitch decks and promises don’t count and they’re sure as heck not worth the billion-dollar valuations being thrown around like parade candy right now.

3 – Time to buy the “box makers?”

Several states including Rhode Island, Washington, Montana, Hawaii, Maryland and others are rolling out new wealth taxes.

As you know I don’t do politics so let’s put that aside straight away. I do money plain and simple.

History is very clear about what’ll happen next.

People will vote with their feet.

Again.

That’s why I am once more eyeing the “box makers” – movers, storage firms, self-storage REITs and yep, even the packing companies themselves.

Potential choices could include PSA, EXR and even stalwart UHAL. I could also see regional banks in places like Florida and Texas doing well. Even title insurers like FAF.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Money is like water in that it will always flow to where it’s treated best. Grab a glass.

4 – Tokyo takes the crown; digital security and nomads take note

The International Workplace Group does an annual survey called the

Anywhere Barometer – and this year Tokyo took the crown as the best place to take a “workation.” (Read)

Criterion included flexible workspaces, the availability of digital nomad visas, broadband quality, proximity to nature and more. About 40 in all.

I’m not surprised.

I’ve spent most of my adult life in and around Japan and still live there part time every year. It’s an awesome place and the people are simply fabulous.

Being a digital nomad isn’t as easy as you’d think or Instagram makes it look, though.

Cybersecurity is a constant battle whether you’re working, sipping coffee at my favorite Shibuya hangout, Onibus Nakameguro, or logging in from an Onsen in Hakone.

Hacking and being hacked is an ongoing concern as is global access at a time when it’s harder than ever to separate the good folks from the bad actors.

That’s why I’ll continue to invest in cybersecurity for the foreseeable future and encourage you to think about doing so, too. Even if you’re not a digital nomad.

My favorite choice is still best in class, having returned 23.69% YTD versus the S&P 500 which has tacked on 9.43% over the same time frame.

Hopefully you’ve got this covered, even if you’re not a digital nomad. And if not, you may find One Bar Ahead® helpful where members latched on to it early on.

5 – Home Depot meets numbers despite falling transaction volumes

I’m not surprised one bit. In fact, I told you very specifically yesterday that transaction volumes would be key.

However, I am stunned that the company stuck by its full year outlook even as it biffed earnings and revenue. (Read)

That tells me some big price increases could be heading for the checkout.

I can hardly wait… 🤦‍♂️

Shares are higher this morning anyway.

I’m tempted to take the other side of that trade because this smells like a liquidity sweep.

If you’re not familiar with the term or the concept, tread carefully.

Big money traders pre-identify price levels where loads of pending orders – think stop losses and pending breakout entries – are clustered. Then execute big order to move prices into those levels/zones.

This, in turn, tends to create a temporary price movement that appears to be a breakout or a breakdown AND lures unsuspecting individual investors into premature positions or triggering their stop losses… right before prices reverse in the other direction leaving ‘em high and dry.

Nasty business but, now ya’ know how the game is played.

Putskies?

Keith’s Investing Tip: It can often pay well to take the other side of a “trade” whenever everybody knows something. Think like a shark, not a minnow.