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☕ Is this the next Nvidia?

Jul 29, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The S&P 500 just notched its sixth consecutive record high, and judging by the early action, it looks like the bulls aren’t done yet ahead of this week’s Fed meeting.

The easy argument is that they’re anticipating a Fed cut, but I don’t get that sense at all.

There are two things going on beneath the surface.

First, there’s a huge swathe of Wall Street that’s still offsides, which means they’ve got to catch up come bonus season and ahead of tough questions from clients wondering why they “don’t own” this, that or the other stock.

And second, the markets love clarity because it brings money off the sidelines. And we’re getting that with tariffs, earnings and even geopolitics, albeit at a snail’s pace.

Both are great for investors who, like us, have already gotten on board at far lower prices.

You have… right?!!

If not, and as mentioned in Sunday’s short, I wouldn’t dally.

My analysis increasingly points to a sustained 5-10 year run that – like the run from 1982 to 2000 (which was longer than 5-10 years obviously) could turn more than a few modest accounts into small fortunes. Heck, even big ones.

My experience matches up.

The next generation of millionaires is being printed right now!

I say grab your share before somebody else does.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Novo Nordisk is plunging, time to buy?

I’ve been waiting for this to happen.

Shares of the Danish drugmaker and Wall Street darling Novo Nordisk, cratered more than 25% this morning after the company cut full-year guidance and named a new CEO — Maziar Mike Doustdar — to replace Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen. (Read)

Now that it has, what’s next?

Novo says it’s seeing slower U.S. growth for both Wegovy (obesity) and Ozempic (diabetes).

The company is blaming cheap compounded knockoffs, market saturation, and increased competition — read: Eli Lilly — for the slowdown.

The sales growth forecast now sits at 8% to 14%, down from 13% to 21%.

Operating profit guidance got shaved too.

All this comes after the company lowered guidance in May, which tells me management has been behind the curve for a while – something I have long suspected.

I mighta’ been on to something.

Now the markets know, too.

The headline says “new CEO,” but make no bones about it… this is a full-blown reset. The kind you make when the narrative is slipping, and Wall Street needs a new face to sell the same old story.

Should you buy it?

The GLP-1 weight loss market is still a $100B+ gold rush, and Wegovy is a major player. But this isn’t about science anymore — it’s about scale, supply chains, and pricing power.

I can think of a few other names I’d rather own, but what the heck, the trader in me can make the case that selling cash secured puts super deep in the chain could be a nice way to play the volatility and get paid too.

Situations like this are as much about the tactics as they are about the companies, sometimes all about tactics, especially if you’re not sure you want to own the company in question as is the case for me personally in this instance.

Keith’s Investing Tip: When companies switch captains and trim the sails in the same breath, it’s usually not a vote of confidence. It’s a scramble to plug leaks and steer away from the rocks.

Speaking of which…

2 – Merck headlines miss the point

Traders are flapping their jaws this morning about a Q2 revenue miss, soft guidance, Gardasil in China, and job cuts among other things.

That’s not the story.

Merck just announced a $3B cost-cutting plan through 2027—and they’re not hoarding it. In fact, the company is reinvesting every dollar into new product launches and drug development. (Read)

That’s the kind of tactical discipline that turns average investments into potentially great investments.

I like what CEO Rob Davis said a lot.

In fact, I think he nailed it: Keytruda’s 2028 patent expiration is “a hill, not a cliff.”

What caught my eye:

$1.7B in annual savings locked in by 2027

Winrevair sales beat expectations

Animal health revenue up double digits

Pipeline? Big time strengthening

To be fair, Gardasil softness hurts. And no, revenue misses are no fun. But this is a company that has BTDT – been there done that before – and knows how to successfully pivot, restructure, and reinvest when others flinch.

I also like the TSY – True Shareholder Yield – which at 4.81% is a skosh higher than the listed 4.06% yield displayed on many websites as I type.

Still—this isn’t where I’d place my biggest bets.

I’d rather be investing in names driving the next generation of targeted therapies, AI-accelerated discovery and gene-editing breakthroughs. It’s not perfect, but it works for me.

Keith’s Investing Tip: I believe that we’re going to solve cancer, Alzheimer’s, and more in the next 20 years. The trick is owning the companies that get us there—before Wall Street does.

It’s a short list and hopefully you know the names. If not, I’ve got it handy.

3 – Apple’s timing isn’t a coincidence

People are falling all over themselves this morning trying to predict what’s in Apple’s earnings when Team Cook reports on Thursday.

As usual, the really important stuff will be in the footnotes and in this case, probably related to two key headlines I spotted this morning.

Cash App just opened up to Apple Pay (and Google Pay) for the first time. Block launched a new peer-to-peer feature called “Pools” that lets users set group funding goals, share a payment link, and collect money—even from people who aren’t on Cash App. For Apple, this quietly expands the reach of Apple Pay into new social payment use cases without having to build the feature itself. It’s a win for network effects and supports Apple’s Services flywheel—especially as Venmo keeps growing and this looks like Block’s direct response. (Read)
Apple announced its opening a Manufacturing Academy in downtown Detroit. It’ll be run in partnership with Michigan State and focus on helping small and mid-sized businesses build skills in AI and advanced manufacturing. This is clearly part of a broader effort to showcase U.S. investment as pressure ramps up from Trump, who’s been pushing Apple to bring iPhone production stateside and is now hinting at fresh tariffs. While full-on U.S. assembly still looks like a long shot, this is Apple signaling that it’s paying attention and that it’s whipping out the ol’ wallet. (Read)

You can watch Apple’s earnings call here.

4 – Is this company the next Nvidia?

Samsung just invested in a South Korean AI chip startup called Rebellions. (Read)

You’ll probably start hearing more about ‘em—especially now that they’re targeting a $200 million raise and planning to IPO once the round closes.

The company’s flagship product is the Rebel-Quad, a second-gen AI inferencing chip built on Samsung’s 4nm process, with plans to integrate high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for faster performance. It’s squarely aimed at the inferencing market—where Nvidia’s chips are already the gold standard.

Soooooooo… is this a threat to Nvidia?

Not even close.

Not yet.

Nvidia’s lead isn’t just about hardware—it’s about an entire ecosystem that includes CUDA, developer tools, proprietary software, deep relationships with hyperscalers and, oh yeah, years of execution.

Rebellions may have Samsung’s support, but building chips is only the first (and easiest) part of the climb.

The other thing worth noting is that Rebellions is focusing on a very narrow piece of the puzzle: inference. I find that an interesting twist and out of the ordinary because Nvidia dominates both inference and training—and that synergy is part of what keeps the moat so wide.

It’s not a typical move for South Korean executives so clearly there’s something else in the background.

Which is why I am watching closely.

MyPOV so far…

Rebellions could get acquired before it IPOs—but that window is shrinking. With Samsung and SK Hynix as backers, and valuation pushing past $1B, the more likely path now is public markets—unless a strategic player like Nvidia, or AMD swoops in (and even then, it’d be a long shot). Maybe even Intel… 🤷🏻‍

The company is interesting, ambitious and well-funded. But from where I sit and based on what I know so far, it looks more like a potential customer or partner.

Hmmm.🤔

5 – Boeing’s turnaround or tailspin?

Boeing just reported its best quarterly delivery count since 2018, slashed its losses, and beat revenue expectations. (Read)

Naturally, Wall Street is back on the “turnaround year” train.

I’m not.

Yes, Boeing lost “only” $176 million last quarter—down from $1.09 billion a year ago. Yes, revenue popped 35% to $22.75 billion, and yes, sales in the commercial airplane unit jumped 81% year over year.

All great but let’s not forget that this is a company that’s burned shareholder trust, cut corners on safety, and is still—by its own CEO’s admission—trying to fix a culture that lost its way years ago.

Don’t make the mistake of pretending this is a clean slate.

Boeing still:

Faces FAA restrictions on 737 Max output due to the door plug blowout in January

Has delayed certification (again) for both the Max 7 and Max 10

Is staring down another potential factory worker strike

And continues to absorb hits in its defense business

This company has spent years getting dragged from headline to headline—crashes, coverups, whistleblowers, skipped inspections.

It wasn’t just bad optics but structural rot that got it to where it is today.

Don’t get me wrong, though.

I love an underdog because they often make compelling investments, but I live in the Pacific Northwest where it’s Boeing country and the scuttlebutt from engineers, suppliers, and insiders isn’t exactly confidence inspiring.

If there hadn’t been another crash earlier this year and the stock had dipped, I’d be tempted to look for a setup—especially heading into events like the Paris Air Show. But that’s not what happened.

Boeing hit a low of $128.88 back in April, and I’ll admit: I was tempted under $150. Even kicked myself for not setting an alert. Shares have rallied ~70% off the bottom since.

If you're inclined to make a play here – and I’m not but recognize you may be – consider long-dated LEAPs calls. That keeps risk contained and the capital needed lower while still giving upside exposure—if the turnaround really takes hold.

As for me?

Investing is about constantly balancing opportunities.

MPOV is that there are plenty of other stocks out there with better upside potential and less baggage – pun absolutely intended. Case in point, and to make my point, one of ‘em has risen ~2,174% from lows set a few years back and still has plenty of profit potential ahead. The S&P 500 and Boeing, by comparison, have returned ~60.03% and ~6.97% respectively.

Just sayin’…