☕️ Is this the only tariff proof stock out there?

Howdy! 👋 

There’s a bit of green on my screen this morning as I type… nothing spectacular mind you… but I’ll take it for as long as it lasts. 

Why? 

Because the markets are forward looking and no matter how small the buying pressure may be for now, it will ultimately blossom. 

Many folks think running away is the smarter move but, in reality, the biggest profits go to those who lean into the fight. 

And it’s not just me who says so. 

Warren Buffett says, “the time to be greedy is when others are fearful.” 

The late Sir John Templeton who is widely regarded as one of the greatest stock pickers of all time said, the best time to buy is at “points of maximum pessimism.” 

My take? 

Investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism. 

And the numbers bear that out. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – The Dragon Bites Back 

Overnight, country-specific tariffs on 86 U.S. trading partners went live, triggering President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff strategy — with rates ranging from 11% to 50%. (Read) 

China wasted no time retaliating, hiking duties on U.S. goods bound for Beijing from 34% to 84%. And now, with the latest wave in effect, Chinese exports to the U.S. face total tariffs as high as 104%. 

Washington is dangerously underestimating Beijing’s resolve, imho.  

Chinese President Xi's worldview is shaped by survival, loyalty to the state, and an almost fanatical commitment to national rejuvenation. He doesn't view Western tariffs or sanctions as threats but, instead, sees 'em as temporary obstacles, even necessary trials, in China’s long-term ascent.   

This won’t be a simple tit-for-tat.  

And the longer it takes to resolve, the higher the risks of irreversible or at least hard to reverse consequences for the US Economy, a view I share with JPM CEO Jamie Dimon. (Read) 

Case in point, Delta pulled its forecast (Read) as did Walmart which canned its quarterly operating forecast citing, what else, tariffs. (Read)  

Still, it’s important not to lose sight of that for the simple reason that markets, like nature, move in cycles—not straight lines. 

Fear is temporary. Fundamentals are not. 

So while the headlines scream chaos, the truth is that volatility often paves the way for the best opportunities if you’ve got the courage, the strategy, and the perspective to look beyond the noise. 

Keep your “buy list” handy. 

The sun’s never as far away as it feels. 

Meanwhile… 

OBAers – Please check your email immediately for a special alert I sent out late last night / early this morning along with specific instructions on a risk reduction move that makes sense at the moment. The income and stability we’ll gain as part of the tradeoff is worth your consideration imho. 

Btw, if you’re not an OBAer and that sounds appealing, I’d like to toss my hat in the ring. 

2 – Talking Tariffs, Apple and Tesla with Liz 

The super smart Liz Claman invited me yesterday to talk tariffs, Apple and Tesla as we launched into the last hour of trading. 

Here’s what I had to say. (Watch) 

It's tempting to run for the hills—and I get why you might. 

Do so at your own risk. 

Apple has returned 534% over the past decade. And Tesla? Try 1,570%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has clocked in at just 139% over the same period. 

History shows two things very clearly: a) that great companies occasionally get put on sale and b) that’s not your cue to run. It’s your signal to lean in and add, using the right tactics, of course. 

“See” my point – pun absolutely intended. 🤦‍ 

3 - Crude Awakening 

Crude has dropped to its lowest level in four years as the U.S.–China trade war escalates. (Read) 

With total tariffs on Chinese goods now hitting 104%, and Beijing vowing to "fight to the end," investors are bracing for demand destruction — especially with China being the world’s largest oil importer. 

Translation? 

Oil prices are dropping on recession fears because the fear is that if China slows, energy markets crack. 

That was true for a long time but these days, I don’t think so. 

The backlash against all things EV is causing a resurgence in piston clankers which means the need for dinosaur juice accelerates. 

Trade Idea: Look to the oil majors on pullbacks like the present. They tend to pay big fat dividends and are engineered for volatility. And if you’re bold, consider a choice like UCO, the double-long crude oil ETF — but only if you’ve got a high-risk tolerance, tight stops and the discipline needed to work ‘em! 

When the herd panics, profits ride shotgun! 

4 – Is Netflix the only tariff “proof” stock out there? 

People ask me frequently if there’s any such thing as a tariff “proof” stock or fund and the answer is no. But there are very definitely tariff “resistant” ones out there. 

Netflix is a good example. (Read) 

Here’s the quick version… 300M+ subscribers as of the end of last year (which puts it ahead of Prime and Disney+), multiple subscription tiers (with the ad tier generating 55% of signups because people have evidently decided the annoyance is worth it), and long form content like NFL (which means longer viewers and – you got it – more advertising bucks). 

Should you buy it? 

That obviously depends on your risk tolerance, objectives and circumstances (none of which I know). 

My take is that now’s the time to double down on low-beta, own-it-forever kinda quality with stable business models, excellent management and rock-solid cash flow. True, these choices may come under pressure but the smoother ride you get is worth it, at least to me anyway. 

All have fantastic upside potential when the storm passes.  

Netflix might just pop, and that’s different. 

Hopefully you’ve got something similar in mind; if not, you know where to find me. 

5 – AI is coming to a data center near you 

Starting Q3, Google will let enterprises run its Gemini AI models inside their own data centers — no cloud required. (Read) 

This is a big deal and the first notable push “down” into more localized AI computing. A few years from now, that’ll be all the way to your wristwatch or even lawnmower but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. 

What you want to focus on here and now is that this is a major differentiator from rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which still require hosted access.  

I think it’s potentially a game-changer for privacy-sensitive clients (think: governments, healthcare, defense). 

Google has radically underperformed peers for a long time and, heck, the S&P 500 too.  

Hmmm. 🧐 

Bottom Line 

I don’t mean to make light of all the selling or the fear that inevitably creeps in around the edges whenever Wall Street gets in a foul mood.  

What’s happening now is serious and, for that matter, seriously scary. 

Just understand this. 

Any fear you’re feeling is a catalyst for growth, knowledge, and yes, profits.  

Contrary to what people think, it’s not something to be exploited at your expense but an emotional input you can learn to recognize, overcome, and use to your advantage. 

It doesn’t matter whether you’re a trader or an investor, the principles are the same. 

All roads lead somewhere, so take the walk and enjoy it. 

Bryce will lead the way. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this – I promise!  

Keith 😀