☕ JPM: Dimon does it again – now what?

Howdy! 👋 

That didn’t take long. 

The S&P 500 just tapped another fresh record high above 6,300. 

Naturally the doom and gloom squad is out in force warning about some sort of tariff-driven inflation reckoning ahead. I’m also seeing a fresh round of clickbait casting fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) 🤦‍️ 

Take it with a big grain of salt. 

Record highs are not cause for panic. 

They’re a sign the markets are doing what they’re supposed to be doing – pricing in future profit potential. 

You wouldn’t be alone if you’re tempted to fall for the schlock. 

Just remember two things: 

1. The market’s real drivers are super simple… strong earnings, great management, productivity gains and profits that are capable of powering the path higher for decades. 
2. FUD always sells but rarely pays. 

The biggest risk isn’t a correction – it’s that you’re not on board as the market charges higher over time. 

So, get on board, dang it! 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Dimon does it again, turns in a spectacular report 

I told you yesterday that I expected strong numbers and that my estimates of $43–$44B and $4.50+ were slightly above consensus. 

I was entirely too conservative. 

Team Dimon reported Q2 earnings, obliterating estimates. (Read) 

• Reported revenue was $45.68 billion, compared to $44.06 billion expected 

• EPS came in at $5.24, compared to $4.48 expected 

• Net interest income was $23.3 billion, up 2% YoY 

• Fixed income trading and investment banking outperformed 

CEO Jamie Dimon noted positives from U.S. tax reform and deregulation but warned of persistent risks: tariffs, trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and elevated asset prices. 

I would expect nothing less. 

JPM is a textbook-perfect case of why I insist on “buying the best and ignoring the rest.” 

Keith’s Investing Tip: The world’s best investors tend to have very concentrated portfolios because they’re playing to win. Take a page outta their playbook... or be content with falling behind. 

2 – Nvidia’s green light: what did Unka Jensen tell President Trump? 

Nvidia just got the green light to restart H20 GPU sales to China. (Read) 

Yep. 

The same chips that got blocked by U.S. export controls in April are suddenly back in play after a quiet meeting between Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and US President Donald Trump last week. 

What did he tell the President? 

My guess is that it’d be stupid to cut China off because doing so will give the Red Dragon added incentive to build its own versions and innovate faster. 

It was the same with oil when the US repudiated Chinese sole-source contracts after Gulf I and suddenly learned to diversify suppliers. 

Then again when Russia invaded Ukraine and Beijing got pinched by Western-controlled financial systems that led it to accelerate Yuan-based oil and gas trade. 

I told investors point blank to buy NVDA – among other key names –  into and off April’s lows because the markets would come to terms with what’s happening sooner than you’d think. 

Hopefully you did. 

NVDA has returned 68.05% while the S&P 500 has returned 23.83% over the same time frame.  

Today’s move resets the entire competitive landscape. 

And, again, it’s NOT unexpected, at least if you’ve been reading my work or have attended any of my presentations around the world in the past 12 months. 

Hopefully you’re playing offense.  

Why? 

There are 10-15 Nvidia-like developments in the wings right now. And, imho, a handful of companies that’ll come charging outta the blocks, several of which are already in the OBA Model Portfolio and well into the green as I type. I’ll be here if that’s of interest. 

3 – Baidu just ate Waymo’s lunch 

I’ve repeatedly warned investors that the Dragon was coming to dinner. The only decision you need to make, I said, was whether to be at the table or on the menu. 

Here’s another example of what I’m talking about. 

Baidu has announced that it's partnered with Uber to deploy Apollo Go autonomous vehicles outside the US and mainland China. (Read) 

Basically, everywhere but the US where regulators have their heads… well, let’s just say in an unusual place. 

This is serious trouble for Waymo but not Tesla which has been playing to counter this eventuality for years… in case you’re wondering. 

Trade Idea: Long Baidu but simultaneously short Uber which seems to have the short end of the stick in this deal. You already know what I think of Waymo but it’s private so that’s moot. 

4 – Target is the next Kmart 

Don’t say I didn’t warn you. 

Target shares are down about 60% from their peak. Store traffic’s falling. Sales have stagnated for four years. That’s not a blip — that’s a brand in trouble. (Read) 

Target used to be edgy, vibrant... the kinda place where shoppers left with three times what they came for.  

Now it’s a sea of generic.  

Empty shelves, disengaged staff, and messy stores are the new normal. Even die-hard fans are walking away. 

Contrary to what scores of pundits will tell ya, the deeper issue isn’t inflation or inventory.  

Target lost its edge trying to be everything to everyone — pulling back from DEI, chasing margins, and letting its once-strong culture slip through the cracks. Now the CEO’s on the way out, and they’re scrambling to course-correct with price cuts, rebrands, and a new “Enterprise Acceleration Office.” 

Reminds me of Kmart’s fall from grace. 

It was the beginning of the end when people started referring to it as “Kamapart” which was pronounced exactly as it looks and a very derogatory take on a once proud brand. 

Retail is won on relevance, clarity, conviction, and execution — not nostalgia. 

Target can do whatever it wants. 

My guess is it’s gone inside of 5 years. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: When a company forgets what made it special, customers don’t wait around. They go where the experience is better, faster, and feels right. Repeat after me, money is like water and will flow to where it's treated best. 

Meanwhile, my favorite retailer has returned 104.44% over the past 3.8 years (since Target shares peaked). And it’s got great divvies, too. OBAers tell me they’re thrilled to own it, btw. 

5 – MP Materials and Apple tie up 

This is getting better by the minute. 

First the DOD, now Apple – two of the most powerful institutions in the world placing their trust in MP Materials. (Read)

Should you buy shares? 

Tough call. 

It’s never a smart move to chase prices.  

MP shares have now jumped 103.46% over the past 5 days since the DOD announced its deal, up another 25.43% today. 

The bigger, more interesting and potentially more profitable bet in my mind is to identify other deals where strategic investment becomes likely. 

• Semiconductors 

• SMRs (Small Nuclear Reactors) 

• Batteries and energy storage specifically 

• AI 

• Biotech and genomics for bio-resilience 

• Space tech 

• Food supply including synthetic biology, ag-robotics and CRISPR applications 

Hmmm. 🤔 

Bottom Line  

Skipping a workout feels harmless… until it becomes a habit. Same with slacking off on your investments.  

Success doesn’t care about excuses. 

You got this – I promise! 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

Keith 😀